844
FXUS64 KMAF 170825
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
325 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 321 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

- High winds and blowing dust expected early next week, mainly in
  the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

- Critical fire weather conditions expected to impact southeast
  New Mexico and portions of west Texas today and Monday.

- Well above normal temperatures continue into the coming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Hot and breezy conditions return today as southwesterly flow aloft
increases ahead of a mid level shortwave. Thick high clouds will
limit mixing across the Permian Basin, but further west skies will
clear helping to promote stronger winds. Gusts will reach near 50
mph in the higher terrain and near 40 mph in the plains.
Temperatures look hot today, even with the clouds. Highs will top
out in the mid 90s for most locations with 100s along the Rio
Grande.

After a mild night with temperatures well above normal, Sunday looks
like a repeat of today. Deep southwesterly flow continues as another
trough digs to our west. Similar to today, winds will become gusty
by afternoon and likely a touch higher. Have posted a High Wind
Watch for the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains where gusts near 60 mph
are likely. Temperatures will top out once again in the 90s for most
with 100s becoming more widespread along the Pecos and Rio Grande
Rivers.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Heading into Sunday night, an upper low moves out of the Rockies and
into the Great Plains. Winds will increase late Monday and a front
moves through early Tuesday. This puts temperatures near normal in
the mid to upper 80s for most with 90s down across the Big Bend. By
Wednesday, the upper low will have moved out of the area.
Temperatures rebound quickly with mid to upper 90s returning
nearly areawide by the end of the week. Long range guidance keeps
low(<30%) rain chances across the Davis Mountains southward for
Thursday and Friday this coming week as an upper low sits just to
the west. Details will become clearer next week, so stay tuned!

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

VFR continues through the period. Southwest winds will increase
mid morning with gusts near 25kts by afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement will be in effect for this
afternoon/evening as winds increase across southeast New Mexico
and western portions of the CWA as a shortwave trough passes over.
With downslope flow across the region, temperatures warm 5-10
degrees above normal with min RHs settling in the single digits.
These conditions will allow finer fuels to more rapidly cure.
However, plenty of high clouds will help mitigate the overall fire
threat. A near repeat of conditions is expected on Sunday and
thus a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Sunday afternoon and
into Sunday evening. However, winds will be slightly stronger on
Sunday and with an extra 24 hours of drying, fuels will be more
susceptible to burning should a fire start occur. Further fire
weather products will likely be necessary for Monday as RFTIs
continue to show critical fire weather conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               95  68  97  64 /  10  10   0  20
Carlsbad                 92  62  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                  100  71 103  71 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            97  69  99  66 /  10  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           84  61  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    90  59  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    88  59  90  56 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     95  67  97  64 /  10  10   0  10
Odessa                   94  66  96  64 /  10  10   0  10
Wink                     96  63  96  60 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

NM...     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...29