400
FXUS64 KMAF 222254
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
554 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 550 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

- A Wind Advisory is in effect until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ for all
  of West Texas east of the Pecos, Pecos and Terrell Counties, and
  the Southeast New Mexico Plains.

- A Flood Watch is in effect through Monday evening for the
  Guadalupe, Delaware, Davis, and Chinati Mountains, Davis
  Mountain Foothills, Marfa Plateau, Eddy and Reeves County
  Plains, Van Horn and the Highway 54 Corridor, eastern Culberson
  County, and the Presidio Valley.

- Warmer temperatures and less precipitation are expected through
  next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Current analysis continues to show mid-level ridging over the
eastern CONUS and troughing over the western CONUS. At the surface a
lee trough is evident over the Great Plains as well as high pressure
over the southeastern United States. Here in the middle of these
features, breezy south/southeasterly winds continue due to the
resultant tight pressure gradient (coupled with an enhanced low-
level jet). Moisture is plentiful across region - MAF`s 12Z sounding
showed a precipitable water value of 1.31 inches, which is right at
the 90th percentile for this time of year. Thunderstorms have
started developing over the higher terrain of West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico. These thunderstorms are expected to increase
in coverage through the afternoon, staying mainly along and west of
the Pecos River. The best rain chances (60-90% chance) will be from
roughly central Eddy County down towards the Davis Mountains and
Reeves County into Presidio County. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue into the evening, with the focus slowly shifting farther
south into Presidio County, the Davis Mountains, and as far east as
Brewster County.

Rain chances briefly diminish Monday morning, but redevelopment is
expected Monday afternoon over roughly the same areas as today (with
a northward extension through all of Eddy County). Chances once
again range from 60-90% for these locations. Like today, much of the
activity Monday afternoon and overnight is expected to remain along
and west of the Pecos, though some convective-allowing models try to
bring a couple of stray storms into the Permian Basin of West Texas.
Nevertheless, much of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos will
remain dry. Because moisture is plentiful, multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are expected, and there is high confidence
(> 80%) of many locations west of the Pecos receiving 0.5-1.5 inches
of rain (with localized higher-end amounts of 2-4 inches possible),
a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 1AM CST/Midnight MST
Tuesday for these areas. The Wind Advisory also remains in effect
until 10PM CST/9PM MST tonight for eastern portions of our area. It
should be noted, however, that breezy conditions will continue into
Monday and, to a lesser extent, into Tuesday as well. Nevertheless,
they are expected to remain below advisory criteria. Temperatures
remain close to/a bit below seasonal averages (highs in the 80s and
low 90s, lows in the upper 60s and 70s).

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Tuesday, the upper ridge is forecast to be centered over the
Virginias, allowing for continued cool temperatures over West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico.  However, this feature will begin
building/strengthening back west, resulting in a gradual increase in
thicknesses/temperatures through next weekend.  Highs Tuesday
afternoon will average mainly at to around 5 F below normal.  The
increase throughout the week will be fairly steady, with highs
Sunday afternoon rounding out the extended at near to around 5 F
above normal.  Unfortunately, while winds won`t be quite as strong
as the past couple of days, a recurring nocturnal LLJ will keep
mixing in play and, as an unfortunate result, overnight lows on the
will be on the warmer side of climatology.

On a brighter note, a large trough over the western CONUS will
continue sending plenty of shortwaves through far west Texas,
continuing the faux monsoon and keeping abundant chances of
convection west of the Pecos each day.  Although best chances of
rain and highest PWAT anomalies remain over the next 48 hours or so,
PWATs will remain on the moist side of climatology into next
weekend.  This area continues to remain the most drought-stricken
(D4) in the country, so this continues to be the best chance in
awhile to put a dent or two in the deficit.  Stay tuned...

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Another night of gusty return flow is anticipated w/the
redevelopment of a strong, 50+kt LLJ. Stratus is expected to
redevelop also, mainly KMAF/KPEQ/KHOB. A widespread, lo-based cu
field is anticipated after stratus clears out. Best chances of
convection are too far out for a mention attm. Convection tonight
will be inserted as needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74  94  72  94 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 72  86  69  86 /  40  70  70  40
Dryden                   73  93  73  94 /  30  20  10   0
Fort Stockton            72  89  70  90 /  40  40  30  10
Guadalupe Pass           66  80  65  76 /  50  70  70  60
Hobbs                    69  86  68  87 /  30  50  40  10
Marfa                    65  78  63  81 /  60  80  60  50
Midland Intl Airport     74  91  72  93 /  10  10  10   0
Odessa                   72  90  71  91 /  10  20  20   0
Wink                     72  89  70  91 /  30  50  40  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through late Monday night for Chinati Mountains-
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden-
     Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-
     Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch through Monday evening for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy
     County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44