456
FXUS64 KMAF 301750
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1250 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1247 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

- High rain chances (50-80%) this afternoon and evening across
  Southeast New Mexico and Permian Basin, shifting farther south Sunday.

- Flash flooding from heavy rainfall is possible this evening and tonight
  across Southeast New Mexico and northern Permian Basin where 1
  to 2 inches of rain has already fallen. Localized flash flooding
  is possible elsewhere.

- Temperatures near to below seasonal are expected this weekend
  through next week.

- Lingering medium to high (35% to 60%) chance of rain Monday,
  mainly southwest of Pecos River, then drier into mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Morning showers and thunderstorms have weakened and cleared out
of our area early this afternoon. Sunshine has quickly returned
and this will aid in thunderstorm development later this
afternoon. While the exact cold front is hard to position,
slightly cooler temperatures and easterly winds have overspread
the region. This diffuse cold front and easterly upslope flow over
the higher elevations will function as a focusing mechanism later
this afternoon. Temperatures are quickly warming through the 80s
towards the lower 90s with ample sunshine. Initial rain
development will be over the higher elevations and near the cold
front across the Permian Basin late this afternoon into this
evening. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually grow in coverage
and spread southeasterly into the remainder of the evening and
overnight. In addition to this, another area of showers and
thunderstorms is expected along a secondary cold front over the
Panhandle. This activity is anticipated to slide south into our
region late tonight and early Sunday morning. Overall, much of the
region has a high (50- 80%) chance of rainfall over the next 12
to 24 hours.

With the widespread and multiple rounds of rain, flash flooding
may be a concern. Seasonally high precipitable water values will
support 2 to 4 inch per hour rainfall rates with thunderstorms.
These rainfall rates may cause rapid rainfall accumulations. Many
locations north of I-20 have received 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
already, increasing the risk of flash flooding for these areas
later this afternoon through Sunday morning. A Flood Watch has
been issued for these susceptible regions as a result. Elsewhere,
these same rainfall rates could easily cause flooding concerns,
but limited rainfall over the previous week lowers confidence in
widespread flash flooding. That being said, localized flash
flooding remains possible.

The secondary cold front pushes through our region by Sunday
morning. This brings widespread cloud cover and seasonally cool
temperatures in the 80s by Sunday afternoon. This should limit
redevelopment across Southeast New Mexico and Permian Basin. That
said, the cold front and continued upslope flow maintains a high
(50- 80%) chance of rain for areas along and south of I-10. These
areas may need to be monitored for flash flooding with high
precipitable water values and rain rates maintained over the
region. The complex terrain in this region makes low-lying areas
prone to flooding despite limited rainfall over the last week.
This activity will gradually continue its march south into Sunday
evening as drier and cooler weather gradually takes hold from the
north by the Labor Day holiday.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

A quieter stretch of weather after decreasing rain chances Monday
evening will characterize the long term. The quasi-stationary
boundary that has brought unsettled weather this weekend will have
dissipated into a remnant surface low over Lower Trans Pecos and
surface troughing extending northeast, west, and south of that low
by Monday. This feature will still provide some forcing for
ascent and showers/storms, but largely southwest of the Pecos
River, with low to medium (25% to 40%) probability from Culberson
County and Reeves County Plains into eastern Stockton Plateau, and
medium (45% to 65%) probability from southern Culberson County
and Marfa Plateau into Presidio Valley, Big Bend, and Terrell
County, and highest over Davis Mountains and Big Bend (60% to
70%). Northeasterly winds, scattered to broken cloud cover with
some clearing to the north and east northeast of the Pecos River,
and dew point temperatures in the 50s and 60s F yield highs rising
into the mid to upper 80s F, mid to upper 70s F higher
elevations, and lower to mid 90s F along Rio Grande from Presidio
Valley into Big Bend for the first of September this year. Lows
fall into 60s F, mid to upper 50s F higher elevations and northern
Lea County, lower 70s F Presidio Valley into Big Bend Monday
night as rain chances decrease below 15% with loss of daytime
heating. A quiet mid week Tuesday and Wednesday is expected, as
the surface pattern will lack any notable boundaries providing
forcing for ascent. Clearer skies with variable winds Tuesday
shifting to southeasterly Wednesday allow persistence of dew point
temperatures in the 60s F and mid to upper 50s F western higher
terrain, along with highs rising back into the upper 80s to lower
90s F along Pecos River, most of Permian Basin, Terrell County,
lower to mid 80s F higher elevations, and mid to upper 90s F from
Presidio Valley into Big Bend. Lows in comparison are not forecast
to change much from Monday night.

Wednesday evening into early Thursday brings a low to medium (25%
to 35%) probability of rain mainly to northern SE NM plains and
northern Permian Basin, with persistent low probability of rain
(15% to 25%) across western and northern portions of the area into
the end of the week. Highs remain in the mid 80s to 90s F, mid
90s F to upper 90s F from Presidio Valley into Big Bend. Lows will
not change much from earlier this week, apart from expansion and
contraction of 50s F over higher elevations and northern Lea
County into Permian Basin, and expansion and contraction of 70s F
over southern Rio Grande basins and southeasternmost Permian
Basin. Rain totals by the end of the week are uncertain and will
largely depend on location, timing, and coverage of
showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

VFR conditions have returned to the region after showers and
sporadic low clouds moved through and lifted this morning.
Additional shower and thunderstorm development is expected later
this afternoon. Initial development is likely over the higher
elevations that are near FST and CNM. More widespread development
is expected across the remaining area through the afternoon and
evening as everything slowly moves southeast. Variable, gusty
winds and visibility reductions are expected with showers and
thunderstorms. Confidence is only moderate on timing and location
of initial thunderstorm development. Also, additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are possible overnight, but confidence
is low on aviation impacts currently. Otherwise, winds remain
light and southeasterly, becoming northeasterly behind a front
early tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               68  85  67  89 /  70  60  30  20
Carlsbad                 68  83  65  86 /  60  50  40  20
Dryden                   74  94  71  88 /  20  50  60  60
Fort Stockton            69  86  68  86 /  60  60  50  60
Guadalupe Pass           63  75  62  77 /  50  60  40  40
Hobbs                    65  82  63  86 /  80  50  30  20
Marfa                    62  81  61  78 /  60  60  50  70
Midland Intl Airport     69  84  68  88 /  60  60  40  20
Odessa                   68  83  67  86 /  60  60  40  20
Wink                     68  85  66  87 /  60  60  40  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday
     afternoon for Andrews-Borden-Dawson-Gaines-Howard-Martin-
     Mitchell-Scurry.

NM...Flood Watch from 3 PM MDT this afternoon through Sunday morning
     for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...91