237
FXUS64 KMAF 141919
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
219 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 218 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Daily heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat particularly for
  areas south of I-10 through at least Thursday.

- Multiple instances of flash flooding expected, especially in the
  areas of heaviest rainfall and low water crossings.

- Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall may trigger rapid water-
  level rises in local creeks, rivers, and normally dry arroyos.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Bottom-Line Up Front (BLUF): The heavy rainfall and flash
flooding threat will persist across the Lower Trans Pecos and Big
Bend region. See additional details below.

Current satellite and radar imagery shows showers and a couple of
storms mainly along and south of the Interstate 10 corridor. A
few showers have developed across the northeastern Permian Basin
which will continue through the evening. Observations also depict
a stationary boundary north of the Big Bend region. The upper low
is currently positioned over south Texas supplying additional
ascent for shower/storm development. Tonight, most areas will
remain dry as the atmosphere stabilizes. A similar setup is in
store for tomorrow as the highest chances (50-70%) for rain will
be over the Lower Trans Pecos, higher terrain, and southern
Permian Basin. This is due to the upper low remaining in south
Texas. Isolated to scattered showers are expected elsewhere in the
Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico during the afternoon and
evening. Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding will still be a
considerable threat given recent soil moisture and very high
Precipitable Water values (PWATs) nearing the 99th percentile for
areas south of I-10. Another threat to consider is the heavy
rainfall along the Rio Grande potentially causing flooding issues
where many summer vacationers will be camping near flood prone
areas. With waterways like Independence Creek (northeastern
Terrell County) already flooding today, tomorrow`s rainfall will
only heighten the river flood threat across the Lower Trans Pecos.
Ensure you have multiple ways to receive warnings and remain
weather aware! Other than the heavy rainfall, high temperatures
are expected to range from the upper 70s to 80s areawide both
days.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The tail end of the week continues to feature scattered to
widespread showers/storms with below average temperatures, while
the weekend into early next week dries out and shower/storms again
become mainly confined to western higher terrain. Highs Thursday
and Friday stay in the 70s and 80s F even down into the Rio
Grande, since heavy rain and cloud cover limits diurnal heating.
Humid, upslope southeast winds keep PWATs in the 1.25" to 1.70"
range and up to the 1.80" to 2" range in spots. This will again
remain above the 90th percentile for this time of year, indicative
of continued efficient heavy precipitation formation where
showers/storms occur. As an upper-level low develops farther
northwest Thursday and Friday, higher rain chances are expected
north of I-10 than previous days, with 3hr PoPs of 45% to 60%
earlier during the day and 25% to 45% PoPs lingering later in the
day through overnight. This does not mean regions that have seen
flooding rains such as northern Terrell County will be out of the
clear, as high-res CAMs continue to show heavy showers/storms
developing over those regions through the end of the week. A Flash
Flood Watch remains in effect south of I-10 from today through
Thursday and may have to be extended through Friday. NBM totals
from Thursday through Saturday mornings display 1.5" to 2" of
rainfall from Terrell County and Rio Grand Basin through the
southeast Permian Basin, with amounts still near 1" for the
central Permian Basin, including Midland-Odessa. A medium (45% to
60%) chance of 1" to 1.50" of rainfall in ensembles from Terrell
County into the Rio Grande basin, Stockton Plateau, and up to
1.00" for Marfa Plateau, as well as central Permian Basin,
portends more flash flooding concerns. Higher end totals of 8" to
12" continue to be indicated in ensembles as well, so significant
flash flooding remains a risk through the end of the week for the
southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Hikers and
campers will want to avoid low lying regions such as creeks and
arroyos. Drivers will also want to exercise caution on roads.
Remember if you encounter flooded roadways, turn around, don`t
drown!

Mid-level ridging building over the Rockies and back south into
the Southern Great Plains with accompanying large scale sinking
motion allows highs to rise back into the mid 80s to lower 90s F
this weekend. Rain chances remain high (50% to 70%) over western
higher terrain early weekend as lift and moisture convergence
associated with the upper-level low slowly retreats to westernmost
TX. A risk of flash flooding will therefore remain across western
parts of the area, although exact amounts are still uncertain at
this time. Rain chances slowly decrease late weekend into early
next week as the upper low dissipates and the familiar 10% to 30%
afternoon/evening shower/storm diurnally-driven convection cycle
re-stablishes. However, heavier showers/storms may still pose
flash flooding concerns. Highs rise back into the upper 80s to
upper 90s F next week, with lows that were largely settling in the
upper 50s to upper 60s F this week settling back into the mid 60s
to mid 70s F.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions will generally remain prevalent across all area
terminals through the period. The exception will be near isolated
to scattered SHRA/TSRA that may develop this afternoon across
portions of the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos this afternoon into
early this evening. We maintained PROB30 mention for TSRA at MAF
and FST. Winds generally remain light from the northeast to east
for the most part through the period (except perhaps briefly from
the southeast at times this evening/tonight).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               67  82  65  80 /  40  50  50  70
Carlsbad                 68  87  66  86 /  10  20  10  30
Dryden                   67  84  66  84 /  60  90  70  90
Fort Stockton            65  81  64  82 /  10  60  30  80
Guadalupe Pass           63  80  62  79 /  10  20  10  30
Hobbs                    65  84  63  81 /  10  20  20  40
Marfa                    56  79  56  78 /  10  50  30  90
Midland Intl Airport     66  81  65  79 /  10  50  40  70
Odessa                   66  81  65  79 /  20  50  40  70
Wink                     67  83  66  82 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Central Brewster-
     Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Terrell-
     Upton-Ward.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...21