776
FXUS64 KMAF 161131
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
631 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 631 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

- This weekend, warm and humid weather with low to medium (20-70%)
  chance of showers and thunderstorms over western higher terrain
  and surrounding foothills and plains are expected.

- Near normal temperatures early next week, becoming slightly
  below normal by the middle and end of the week.

- There is a daily low to medium (20-60%) chance of thunderstorms
  for much of the area, with the highest chances over western
  portions of the area early in the week, shifting eastward later
  in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

This weekend we are expecting seasonable temperatures and a chance
of rain across the western higher terrain of W TX into SE NM plains.
With dew point temperatures in the 60s F, upper 50s to lower 60s F
western higher terrain, expect humid and warm days and nights with
scattered cloud cover. VIS/IR satellite imagery early this morning
depicts dissipating clouds and rain, with radar and surface obs
showing light south/southeast winds. Mid to upper ridging will
continue to weaken and shift east, allowing for increased rain
chances. Just as on Friday, scattered to broken cloud cover limiting
daytime heating and and evaporational cooling from increased
coverage of showers/storms compared to the previous day will prevent
highs from warming as much as they did the previous day. Highs rise
in the lower to mid 90s, lower to mid 80s higher elevations, and
upper 90s to triple digits from Presidio Valley into the Big Bend,
with 105 F + readings only in the Big Bend. Isolated to scattered
showers/storms are expected to develop this afternoon and continue
through this evening, with a low to medium probability (25% to 35%)
of rain over SE NM plains into Upper Trans Pecos and Presidio
Valley, and medium to high probability (45% to 60%) over the Davis
Mountains and surrounding foothills, before dissipating after
sunset. Winds tonight in the LLJ are forecast to be lighter than
Friday night, so as on Friday night, we are again expecting low a
few degrees cooler than the previous night, but still in the lower
to mid 70s, mid to upper 70s along Rio Grande, mid to upper 60s
basins of Culberson County into western Eddy County and northern Lea
County, and lower to mid 60s Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos.

Tomorrow, as ridging begins to develop back to the west and decrease
more larger scale sinking motion leads to warmer temperatures. Highs
are therefore forecast to rise back into the mid to upper 90s, mid
80s to upper 80s higher elevations, lower 90s foothills of higher
elevations and northern Lea County, and upper 90s to triple digits
again along the Rio Grande, with highest temperatures as well again
for the Big Bend. Despite increased subsidence, However, lee
troughing is forecast to be situated over E NM into W TX just like
on Friday and Saturday, aiding upslope southeast winds and
convergence, allowing low (20% to 35%) to medium probabilities (35%
to 50%) of rain to develop over western higher terrain of W TX into
SE NM plains and east into northwest Permian Basin and Stockton
Plateau, with highest probabilities (55% to 70%) again over Davis
Mountains and low (15% to 20%) probabilities over much of the
Permian Basin into eastern Stockton Plateau and western Terrell
County. Rainfall accumulations of a few tenths of an inch are
expected where showers/storms do occur, but widespread flooding is
not expected at this time. Lows Sunday night again fall to similar
values as Saturday night, as less radiational cooling from warmer
daytime temperatures is offset by lighter winds limiting transport
of warmer air into the area in the LLJ.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

The forecast for the coming work week continues to show a more
active weather pattern for our region. This monsoonal-esque weather
pattern should provide welcomed rainfall to a large portion of the
area over the coming days. Similarly, temperatures remain near to
slightly below normal through next week, offering a relative relief
from the usual summer heat.  During the start of next week, the
upper-level ridge moves off to our east, becoming centered over the
Mid-Mississippi River Valley. This allows for plentiful low to mid-
level moisture to stream north out of the tropics. With plentiful
moisture in place, weak sub-tropical disturbances offer continued
thunderstorm chances, especially across western portions of the area
with their proximity to the higher terrain. That being said, as the
week progresses, the upper-level ridge weakens and redevelops
westward until it becomes centered near the Four Corners region
towards the middle of the week. Concurrent to this change, a broad
trough begins to develop over the Upper Midwest. Our area is
expected to be situated on the eastern periphery of the ridge,
allowing a weak front to move into the southern Great Plains. This
translates to continued near to even slightly below normal
temperatures alongside daily thunderstorm chances. That said, the
best chance of rainfall begins to shift eastward to over the
Stockton Plateau and Permian Basin by the latter half of the week.
The western high elevations may miss out on rainfall with closer
proximity to the upper-level ridge and associated subsidence during
this time.

Overall, afternoon temperatures each day reach the upper 80s across
the higher elevations with 90s for most other locations. Any 100s
are primarily limited to locations nearest the Rio Grande. Mild
morning temperatures mostly in the 70s slowly cool into more upper
60s and lower 70s later in the week. Daily afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are to be expected. Initially, the best coverage
starts off adjacent to the western higher elevations before
gradually shifting eastward to over the Stockton Plateau and Permian
Basin. The daily chance of precipitation remains low to medium (20-
60%) across a large portion of the region each day through the end
of the forecast period.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

VFR conditions forecast throughout period apart from afternoon
and evening showers/storms. Southeast winds shift to easterly for
terminals on Reeves County Plains and Stockton Plateau 16Z-19Z
Saturday, while remaining out of the southeast at other terminals.
Low to medium probability of showers/storms for terminals across
SE NM plains into Upper Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau from 18Z
Saturday into 03Z Sunday, with highest probability 18Z-23Z. Main
impacts from storms will be heavy rain, gusty winds, lightning,
and small hail. Winds veer to southeast over Reeves County Plains
and Stockton Plateau by 01Z-03Z, while becoming gusty for
terminals across the Permian Basin 03Z-06Z and continuing into end
of period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               95  74  97  75 /  10  10  20  10
Carlsbad                 93  72  95  72 /  40  20  40  20
Dryden                   96  74  98  75 /  10  10  20  10
Fort Stockton            95  73  96  74 /  30  10  30  10
Guadalupe Pass           83  67  85  67 /  50  30  50  20
Hobbs                    92  70  93  71 /  30  20  30  20
Marfa                    85  62  85  62 /  70  30  60  20
Midland Intl Airport     95  74  96  75 /  10  10  20  10
Odessa                   94  74  95  75 /  10  10  20  10
Wink                     95  73  96  74 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...94