698
FXUS64 KMAF 222241
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
541 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 540 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

- Dry with near normal temperatures through Monday.

- Slightly cooler temperatures return with rain probabilities
  increasing to a low to medium (30% to 50%) chance Tuesday into
  the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A surface ridge located in the Texas Panhandle is providing a
pleasant northeasterly surface flow to West Texas and eastern New
Mexico this afternoon. Current satellite shows cumulus developing
across the entire area though deep convection is lacking and
radar shows no echoes. Hi-Res models indicate that there is
little chance for any rain showers today with highs topping out in
the 90s.

Upper high pressure near the Four Corners region will remain
stationary into tomorrow. The surface ridge breaks down slightly
Saturday causing winds to veer a little more easterly or
southeasterly. Fortunately this is just advecting in seasonal air
from central Texas and highs change little. In addition, rain
chances will be very little (<15%) as temperatures struggle to
reach the level needed for deep convection.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

The upper high to our west builds east Sunday into New Mexico and
Texas, but upper heights do not change much and temperatures
remain near climatological norms through Monday. The high breaks
down on Tuesday and combined with a large low over Hudson Bay in
Canada pushes a cold front south into the area late Monday and
into Tuesday. The cold front not only brings in cooler
temperatures, but also increases rain chances (30-50%) for many
areas. The best rain chances will be along and north of the cold
front, the exact position is hard to nail down at this time so
PoPs are scattered across the entire area. Hopefully confidence
in rain location will increase over the coming days.

Rain chances could decrease some Wednesday and Thursday before
another weak cold front reaches the CWA Friday increasing chances
again. The NBM ensemble guidance doesn`t show this very well but
deterministic models are showing a noted downward precip trend
Wed/Thu so will have to keep an eye on this.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light/variable flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               67  93  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 68  94  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   72  94  70  95 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton            68  93  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           65  84  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    64  91  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    58  86  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     69  93  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   68  92  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     68  94  68  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...99