794
FXUS64 KMAF 191849
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
149 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Current water vapor shows an upper low slowly moving into the area
across Arizona and New Mexico this afternoon. Broad ascent, coupled
with abundant low level moisture brought in by brisk southeasterly
flow, and added instability from daytime heating will allow for
showers and storms to develop across southeast New Mexico and parts
of West Texas. RAP forecast soundings over Eddy and Lea counties
show MLCAPE around 1000J/kg with lapse rates around 7C/km and
effective shear between 35-40kts. Given the amount of shear,
discrete supercells look to develop this afternoon and congeal
into a line tonight with storms that form north of the area. With
these parameters, severe hail(>1"), damaging winds, and a tornado
or two will be possible with the most organized storms. Have
multiple ways to receive warnings and stay weather aware,
especially after sunset.

Storms that develop this afternoon will mostly move south to north
with a slight eastward component to their direction. Any activity
that develops gradually moves out of the area and decays after
midnight tonight, but the onset of another strong low level jet
may aid in storms lingering later into tonight. Temperatures once
again stay well above normal in the upper 50s to low 60s as warm,
moist air is advected in from the southeast. Highs end up a few
degrees warmer compared to today with 70s for most and 80s for
areas around and south of the I-10 corridor. Storm chances return
across southeast New Mexico Sunday afternoon where a few storms
could be strong to severe. That activity should taper off into the
evening and with overnight temperatures once again staying above
normal in the 50s to low 60s.

-Stickney


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

After a very short taste of cooler Fall days and some rainfall, we
begin to warm up and dry out. An upper ridge gradually builds over
the southwestern CONUS on Monday. The ridge reaches its peak
physique by Wednesday, allowing highs to climb into the upper 80s
and low 90s, roughly 10-15F above normal.

A trough swinging in from the Pacific Northwest starts to take a
jab at the upper ridge, squeezing it between another trough over
the Great Lakes region. The latter ushers in a weak cold front
into our neck of the woods overnight Wednesday, shaving off a few
degrees from Thursday`s highs. Overall, the extended forecast
looks warm and dry, for better or for worse, with highs generally
in the 80s and 90s and nights ranging in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

MVFR CIGs in place at most terminals, but cloud decks will scatter
out or lift at CNM and INK during the afternoon and hold at most
other sites. Breezy southeasterly winds with gusts around 30kts will
continue through the day and into tonight. TS possible for HOB/INK
as well, but not included due to low confidence of impact. Storms
develop around 20-22z and decay late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               60  78  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 62  77  57  81 /  50  30  40   0
Dryden                   65  78  62  84 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            63  78  60  89 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           56  73  56  75 /  60  30  40   0
Hobbs                    59  72  58  81 /  30  10  20   0
Marfa                    55  78  54  82 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     63  76  61  84 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   63  75  62  84 /  10   0  10   0
Wink                     64  78  61  86 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...93