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FXUS64 KMAF 221121
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
521 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 518 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

 - Temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal this weekend.

 - Medium (40-60%) probability of cold fronts on Monday and
   Thursday returning temperatures to near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

All is quiet today and Saturday for your short term forecast. A
upper-level ridge slides across the Great Plains through the weekend
while our next weather system continues to spin off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest. This means our weather continues to be warm and
dry. The dry weather will allow for a cool start in the upper 30s
and low 40s, but temperatures quickly climb back above normal this
afternoon into the upper 60s and low 70s. Little changes on Saturday
other than temperatures climbing a couple of degrees. Plentiful
sunshine combined with these temperatures offer beautiful outdoor
weather for your weekend at least.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Overall, the end of this weekend and through the upcoming holiday
week appears mostly quiet. Sunday sees temperatures about 10-15
degrees above normal as our warm weekend continues. The new week has
a medium (50-70%) probability of seeing a weak cold front move into
the area. A weak weather system passes north of our region on Monday
and this should allow cooler, near normal temperatures to return
that afternoon. Once again, we begin to warm up to slightly above
normal on Tuesday and nearly 10 degrees above normal on Wednesday.
There is another weather system set to pass near  the region by the
Thanksgiving Holiday. At this time, there is a low to medium (30-
50%) probability of this weather system pushing a stronger cold
front through our area. This would push temperatures back to near or
even below normal for Thanksgiving and Black Friday. It remains
uncertain when the front will arrive into the area and how cold the
temperatures will be behind the front. We will have higher
confidence in the details as we head into next week. Outside of
these cold fronts, the lack of a weather system directly impacting
the southern Great Plains keeps the forecast dry with lots of
sunshine to be found. I hope you enjoy the the quiet weather!

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions with light and variable winds this morning,
becoming southeasterly this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  43  74  51 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 69  36  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   72  44  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            75  45  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           65  46  68  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    68  37  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    73  41  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     70  43  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   70  44  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     71  38  76  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...91