544
FXUS64 KMAF 141142
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
642 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Cold front approaches the region on today bringing higher rain
  chances through Monday. Will be monitoring for heavy rainfall
  leading to flash flooding.

- A few storms may be strong to severe today across southeast New
  Mexico, Upper Trans Pecos, and the Permian Basin. The main
  hazards expected are large hail and damaging winds.

- The hottest temperatures of the season so far are possible by
  the middle of next week with many locations experiencing their
  first 100 degree day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

A line of storms near an approaching cold front to the north will
gradually move to the south with the front through this morning.
Short range guidance shows this activity mostly dissipating as
the front enters our area near or just after sunrise this morning.
As daytime heating occurs, the cold front will stall out
somewhere north of the Pecos River Valley. As warming occurs,
showers and storms will develop generally along or north of the
front with a few storms capable of becoming severe. The main
hazards with any severe storms will be damaging winds and large
hail. Shower and storm coverage increases during the afternoon and
into tonight. Given the uncertainty in coverage, rain amounts
will vary across the area. Many can expect about a quarter to a
half an inch, but amounts up to an inch will be possible. Given
recent rainfall, flash flooding will be possible, particularly in
areas that have seen rainfall over the last few days. Areas south
of the front will warm into the 90s while areas north of the
front will be cooler and reach into the 80s.

Showers and storms continue into tonight and tomorrow morning with
coverage spreading further south. Heading into the day on Monday,
scattered showers and storms continue, but begin to lessen in
coverage from north to south through the afternoon and into Monday
evening. Daytime highs will be much cooler as cloud cover and
showers keep highs in the 80s.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Heading into Tuesday, northwest flow aloft takes hold across the
region. Temperatures warm into the upper 80s and low 90s areawide.
With this much drier pattern, rain chances decrease on Tuesday and
drop to near zero for Wednesday and Thursday. Medium range guidance
continues to show the middle of the week being the warmest days of
the year so far with much of the region reaching into the low 100s.
Midland has yet to see its first 100F day yet this year. Beyond
Thursday, long range guidance moves temperatures back towards normal
and increase rain chances as a weak disturbance moves over the
region. Due in part to abundant low level moisture, overnight lows
end up near or just above normal in the low to mid 70s for many.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Showers and storms have begun to develop across the area and will
impact terminals on and off through the day and into this evening.
MVFR CIGs and VIS may occur at times due to showers and storms.
Behind a passing cold front, winds shift northeasterly and be
sustained around 10-15kts. South of the cold front, winds remain
southerly. Amendments will be made based on radar trends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               88  65  81  65 /  30  50  50   0
Carlsbad                 88  65  85  65 /  60  50  20  20
Dryden                   96  72  87  69 /  10  40  60  30
Fort Stockton            94  67  84  66 /  20  50  50  10
Guadalupe Pass           83  64  79  64 /  40  40  30  10
Hobbs                    83  61  81  62 /  60  40  40  10
Marfa                    90  59  82  57 /  40  30  70  10
Midland Intl Airport     89  66  81  66 /  20  50  40   0
Odessa                   89  66  81  66 /  20  40  40   0
Wink                     92  66  84  66 /  40  50  40  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93