180
FXUS64 KMAF 101734
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- Hot temperatures persist through late this week with near record
  heat possible Friday and Saturday.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible over
  the higher terrain each day through the period. Storm chances
  increase over portions of southeast New Mexico and the Permian
  Basin today and again late this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Current radar shows outflow from earlier convection moving into
the Permian Basin early this morning. Hi-res models show this
boundary becoming stationary later this morning and washing out,
having little effect on our weather other than a brief wind shift.
A cold front farther north will move south later today and
enter the basin this evening. Unlike the earlier outflow boundary,
the front will provide enough lift that convection forms and moves
along with the front bringing some rain to the northeastern basin.
High pressure builds in tomorrow ending rain chances in the
Permian Basin and only leaving rain chances in the Davis
Mountains. Highs tomorrow also rise into the upper 90s to low
100s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Temperatures increase into the low 100s for many on Saturday as
upper level high pressure moves across New Mexico and West Texas.
Record or near record temperatures are expected Saturday before
the high shifts to the east and cooler air from the gulf is
advected into the area next week. Highs beginning Sunday will drop
slightly into the 90s, cooler than Friday and Saturday but still
at least 5 degrees above normal for this time of year. Little
changes through the rest of the week as high pressure remains
nearly stationary to our east. There will be a chance for
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the higher
elevations west of the Pecos River, more of a summertime pattern
than a fall pattern. We are still looking for our first strong
fall cold front here.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR continues at all terminals. Mainly southeasterly winds hold
for all but CNM/PEQ and later HOB as a cold front approaches the
region from the north. Wind shifts due to FROPA may occur and
shift winds to the north and northeast. TS not included with
issuance as confidence too low that impacts will occur at
terminals through this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74 101  75 102 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 73 102  74 103 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                   76 101  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            74 100  75 102 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           69  91  70  93 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                    71  99  72 102 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    63  91  65  93 /  10  30  10  30
Midland Intl Airport     75  99  76 101 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   76  99  77 101 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     75 102  76 104 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93