125
FXUS64 KMAF 101906
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
206 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- Hot temperatures persist through late this week with near record
  heat possible Friday and Saturday.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible over
  the higher terrain each day through the period. Storm chances
  increase over portions of southeast New Mexico and the Permian
  Basin today and again late this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

An upper level ridge currently resides over the southwestern CONUS,
while an upper trough noses its way into the southern Plains. A cold
front is advancing southward, enforced by outflow from storms behind
the front. Isolated showers/storms are expected to continue
developing near the cold front over SE NM and the northern and
eastern Permian Basin through the afternoon/evening. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms are also developing west of the Pecos
River, driven by daytime heating and upslope flow. A few of these
storms may be strong to severe, with damaging winds as the primary
threat. Isolated storms will again be possible over the higher
terrain tomorrow afternoon, primarily near the Davis Mountains.

Current obs behind the front line show temperatures in the 80s.
Temperatures later this afternoon will depend on how far south the
boundary pushes. For now, expect highs to top out in the mid to
upper 90s for most locations, with low 100s near and along the river
valleys. Lows tonight fall to the 60s in the higher terrain and
behind the cold front in our northern counties, with 70s elsewhere.
The front becomes diffuse tomorrow as upper ridging begins to build
back over our region. Temperatures reach into the low triple digits
across much of the Permian Basin, SE NM, and along the Rio Grande
tomorrow afternoon. Meanwhile, highs in the 90s are expected within
the higher terrain and adjacent areas. Lows tomorrow night mainly
cool into the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Saturday will be the warmest day of the extended forecast as ridging
moves overhead for the day before shifting to the east on Sunday and
into the early part of next week. If Saturday`s forecast high of
102F occurs, this would be a record for the date (currently 101F set
in 1930). Daytime highs will fall from the low 100s for most into
the low to mid 90s from Monday through Wednesday. Rain chances will
gradually increase during this time, but remain confined to the
western half of the CWA and top out between 10-30%. Overnight lows
for many will gradually dip into the 60s to low 70s for most, but
temperatures will still remain above normal through the middle of
September.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR continues at all terminals. Mainly southeasterly winds hold
for all but CNM/PEQ and later HOB as a cold front approaches the
region from the north. Wind shifts due to FROPA may occur and
shift winds to the north and northeast. TS not included with
issuance as confidence too low that impacts will occur at
terminals through this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74 101  76 103 /  10   0  10   0
Carlsbad                 73 102  73 104 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   76 102  77 103 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            74 100  75 102 /   0  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           69  92  70  94 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    71 100  73 102 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    64  92  65  94 /  10  30   0  40
Midland Intl Airport     75 100  77 102 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   76 100  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     76 102  76 104 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93