034
FXUS64 KMAF 031935
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
235 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 211 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

- Rain chances increase tonight and into the weekend. The best
  chances of measurable rainfall are over southeast New Mexico/the
  Permian Basin during the Friday night through Saturday
  afternoon timeframe.

- There is a marginal to slight risk of strong to severe
  thunderstorms tonight into early Friday morning. The main
  threats with these storms will be large hail and damaging winds.

- Freezing temperatures are possible across much of the area
  Sunday morning, with the chance of a rain/snow mix in the
  Guadalupes and central/northern Lea County New Mexico. Impacts
  to travel are not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A rinse and repeat weather pattern heading into tonight. Surface
low pressure is expected to develop once again across southern
Texas, supplying more moisture return across the eastern half of
the forecast area. A shortwave trough also moves over the region
providing lift. Both of these ingredients will allow the potential
for measurable rainfall across southeastern New Mexico
(0.05-0.40") and a few strong to severe thunderstorms over the
central and eastern portions of the Permian Basin. High resolution
guidance depicts storms developing over these areas around
midnight tonight lasting through the early morning hours. Forecast
soundings and hodographs support an elevated multicellular to
discrete convective mode given straight wind profiles and high
shear coinciding with modest elevated MU CAPE (1000-1500 J/kg).
HREF and other deterministic guidance have PWATs at least 0.3
inches higher than normal for this time of year per SPC sounding
climatology. The higher than normal PWATs indicate heavy rainfall,
especially with the more stronger storms. These storms are
anticipated to move off to the northeast very quickly which will
mitigate a flash flood threat. If training of thunderstorms does
occur over the same areas, this may result in some areas to flood.
The main threats for the strongest storms will be large hail and
damaging winds with these storms being confined over the eastern
Permian Basin.

The mid-level longwave trough progresses more eastward going into
Friday. Scattered rain showers and storms continue during the
afternoon over some portions of the region. These storms are
anticipated to be general to at most sub-severe (over eastern
Permian Basin). Since rain showers will be convective and
scattered in nature, rainfall accumulation will be hard to
pinpoint across southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Therefore,
not all areas will see precipitation. High temperatures are
forecasted to be around 10 degrees cooler than normal, thanks to
the morning rain and cloud coverage throughout the day.

The greatest chances of rain arrives Friday night into early
Saturday morning. A cold front is forecasted to be approaching
from the north, while a stationary front setup across far southern
Texas. Light rain showers are anticipated during this timeframe,
resulting in lighter accumulations. Low temperatures are
forecasted to vary throughout the region with lower to mid 30s
over the southeastern New Mexico Plains and the higher terrain,
while 40s to lower 50s elsewhere. The cooling trend continues
heading into the long-term period.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Very good rain chances continue into Saturday, but there is some
concern for those wanting rain. The heaviest precipitation will
occur ahead of the upper level low moving across the U.S./Mexico
border (where moisture and lift is greatest) which happens through
Friday night. By Saturday, the upper low arrives in West Texas
and we get into the deformation zone of the upper low, finally
transitioning to wrap around precip on the back side of the
departing low. Precipitable water values (PWATs) steadily decrease
from a high of near 1" Friday night to only 1/4" by Saturday
night as the deeper Gulf rich air pushes east and we get drier air
advecting in from west of the low. Therefore despite high
rainfall chances, rainfall amounts will decrease as the day goes
on and heavier showers and storms will transition to light rain.
Rain chances end pretty quickly Saturday night as the upper low
exits to the east. There is a chance for a rain and snow mix in
southeastern New Mexico and the Guadalupe and Davis mountains
though little if any accumulations are expected. Warm ground
temperatures should prevent ice forming on roads despite expected
lows Sunday morning near freezing.

Temperatures cool down Saturday due to a strong, late season cold
front as well as abundant clouds and rain. Highs will mainly be
in the 40s and 50s with only some 60s and 70s along the Rio
Grande. Skies clear Sunday and continued northerly winds keep cool
air advecting in for another day keeping temps in the 50s and
60s. Broad upper level ridging develops next week creating a
warming trend that sends temps back above normal with highs
getting back to the 80s.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

VFR conditions and breezy northeasterly winds are expected
throughout the afternoon at most terminals. Ceilings lower to MVFR
and IFR conditions later on tonight for all terminals. Prevalent increased
chances of rain showers across CNM and MAF which is why PROB 30s
were included. There is also the potential of thunderstorms
developing across the central and eastern portions of the Permian
Basin around and after midnight tonight. Given the low confidence
of storms occurring near MAF, TSRA was not included in the TAF at
this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               48  60  43  51 /  70  50  80  90
Carlsbad                 46  55  38  44 /  60  70  60  90
Dryden                   56  76  51  65 /  50  10  70  60
Fort Stockton            51  67  45  54 /  50  20  70  70
Guadalupe Pass           43  50  35  39 /  50  70  40  70
Hobbs                    44  56  35  46 /  70  60  70 100
Marfa                    45  66  38  51 /  20  20  50  60
Midland Intl Airport     49  61  43  50 /  60  30  80  80
Odessa                   49  61  44  49 /  60  30  80  80
Wink                     49  63  42  51 /  50  50  70  90

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...11