819
FXUS64 KMAF 111123
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- Hot temperatures persist through this weekend with near record
  heat possible today and Saturday.

- Temperatures remain above normal through at least the middle
  part of next week, but begin to gradually cool.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible over
  the higher terrain each day through the period. Storm chances
  increase over portions of southeast New Mexico and the Permian
  Basin today and again late this weekend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level ridge over the southwestern
CONUS. Meanwhile, a stationary front resides in the northern
Permian Basin. The front is expected to become diffuse by late
morning/early afternoon as daytime heating under the ridge ensues.
Isolated to scattered (10-30% chance) showers and storms are
expected to develop mainly west of the Pecos River this
afternoon/evening due to upslope flow and daytime heating. A few
storms could become strong, with gusty winds as the main hazard.
Otherwise, widespread triple digit highs can be expected across
southeast New Mexico, the Upper Trans Pecos, Permian Basin, and
along the Rio Grande.

The upper ridge builds over our region on Saturday, yielding near-
record high temperatures. For reference, the previous record high of
101F was set in 1930 at Midland International Air and Space Port
(forecast high is 102F). Most of the forecast area can expect triple
digit heat, with the hottest spots being along the Pecos River
Valley and Rio Grande. Be sure to drink plenty of fluids and take
frequent breaks if you must be outside for an extended period of
time. Aside from the heat, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
develop mainly west of the Pecos River in the upslope flow regime.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

By Sunday and into next week, troughing to the north and west helps
push the upper-level ridge east of our area. This causes
temperatures to steadily decrease through next week. On Sunday,
highs remain in the upper 90s and just over 100 degrees for most
locations. By Wednesday and Thursday highs in the low-to-mid 90s
will have become more commonplace. It should be noted, however, that
these temperatures will still be about 5-10 degrees above normal for
this time of year (for reference, 87 degrees is the average high at
KMAF for September 16th and 17th). Decreasing subsidence and nearby
pulses in the flow aloft will also help encourage increasing rain
chances next week, mainly for the western half of the area. For
Sunday, rain chances will mainly exist in/around the higher terrain
west of the Pecos (10-20%). From Monday through the end of the
forecast period, chances for southeast New Mexico and locations
south and west of the Pecos River will generally be in the 20-50%
range.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours. Generally
light southeasterly to southerly winds continue this forecast
period. Showers and storms are expected to develop mainly west of
the Pecos River this afternoon, but have opted to leave out of TAFs
for now due to low confidence in terminal impacts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              102  76 104  75 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                102  73 104  74 /  10   0  10   0
Dryden                  102  76 103  76 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton           100  75 103  74 /  10   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           92  70  93  71 /  10   0  10   0
Hobbs                   100  73 103  73 /  10   0  10   0
Marfa                    91  64  94  64 /  30  10  30  10
Midland Intl Airport    100  76 102  75 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                  100  77 102  76 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                    102  77 105  76 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55