740
FXUS64 KMAF 061038
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
538 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 538 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather conditions continue
  across the region through early next week.

- Slightly cooler temperatures and low (10-30%) rain chances
  briefly return Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

WV imagery this morning shows a deep upper trough extending from off
the coast of California up into Manitoba, putting West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico under persistent southwest flow aloft.

Today, with little change in the pattern, temperatures will be
similar to yesterday`s, if not a degree cooler due to slightly
diminished thicknesses.

Tonight, a 35 kt LLJ is forecast to redevelop, keeping mixing in
play and overnight lows ~ 10-12 F above normal.

For those who like cooler weather, Tuesday will be a treat as a cold
front approaches the area.  This feature will likely slow and/or
stall north of the area during the day due to diurnal heating.
However, surface winds will back to east, and thicknesses will
further diminish, yielding afternoon highs averaging only ~ 5 F
above normal.  CAMs rotate a shortwave around the northwest
periphery of the ridge and this could kick off some isolated
convection during the afternoon, mainly over Southeast New Mexico.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Mid level ridging builds back over the region following Tuesday`s
cold front. This will lead to another string of hot days moving
forward, but not before our "coolest" day of the period Wednesday.
The effects of the cold front will still be felt with easterly winds
and clouds keeping temperatures close to normal (low to mid 80s). A
low chance (<20%) of showers are still expected, but amounts will be
generally less than a tenth of an inch.

Southeast winds and the heat returns the rest of the week with
temperatures back up toward 90 and dry conditions returning. The
ridge may finally begin to break down early next week, but not
before we see more near-record warmth this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

VFR will prevail with southerly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               91  63  87  63 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                 90  63  85  63 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                   90  66  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton            90  64  88  64 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           81  60  76  58 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                    87  60  83  59 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                    83  55  81  56 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     89  64  87  64 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                   88  64  86  64 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                     90  64  87  64 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29