631
FXUS64 KMAF 051142
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
642 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 642 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

- Warm and dry conditions expected through the middle part of the
  week before a cold front brings cooler temperatures Wednesday
  night and Thursday.

- High winds will impact the Guadalupe Mountains today with windy
  conditions spreading into the adjacent plains of southeast New
  Mexico and portions of west Texas. Breezy conditions continue
  into Wednesday. Strong gap winds may briefly impact the
  Guadalupe Mountains Wednesday night behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Generally zonal flow aloft is in place across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico early this morning with satellite imagery
continuing to show plentiful high level cloud cover spreading
over our region. Temperatures are warmer early this morning with
readings still in the 60s and 70s as of 3 AM CDT. The dryline has
retreated back to the west over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos where dewpoints have risen back into the mid 50s to around
60 degrees, but no precipitation is to be found given a lack of
lift over region.

The upper-level flow pattern will transition more southwesterly
today as an upper level low continues to pivot toward southern
California/Nevada and into Arizona. Surface low pressure near the
Texas/Oklahoma panhandles early this morning will advance toward
the Red River Valley today as a rather strong cold front pushes
into the Texas panhandle and through much of Oklahoma. An elongated
surface trough axis will extend across west Texas into portions
of New Mexico today ahead of this cold front and low level thermal
ridging along this feature will allow for another warm afternoon
across our forecast area with highs reaching into the 80s to low
90s for most, except for 70s in the higher terrain and readings in
the mid 90s to around 104 along the Rio Grande. The dryline will
get pushed east of our region by late this morning, so we expect
a dry afternoon with increased westerly winds developing over much
of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. A mid to upper level jet
max still looks to spread over the forecast area this afternoon
which will result in enhanced wind speeds over the higher terrain
areas, especially in the Guadalupe Mountains from late this
morning through early this evening where westerly winds up to
40-50 mph and gusts to 65-70 mph appear likely. Strong westerly
winds on the order of 25-35 mph with gusts around 50 mph also look
to spread over eastern Culberson County TX and over the southeast
New Mexico Plains this afternoon. The High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupe Mountains and Wind Advisory for the adjacent plains
areas still looks good and no changes have been made. Breezy
westerly winds up to 20-30 mph with gusts up to around 45 mph may
spread into portions of the Permian Basin and Upper Trans Pecos
this afternoon. Winds should gradually diminish into the evening.
We expect another mild night tonight with lows in the 50s and
60s.

A similar pattern continues into Wednesday. The cold front to our
north essentially looks to move very little and remain stalled over
the Texas panhandle through Wednesday afternoon while an also
elongated surface trough remains oriented over eastern New Mexico
and west Texas. Another warm and breezy day is anticipated, though
wind speeds overall should be lower than what we will have today.
Wind speeds may near high wind thresholds over the Guadalupe
Mountains again briefly on Wednesday afternoon, but presently look
to be more borderline in nature.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

The cold front will finally get a push south through our forecast
area Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Breezy
northeasterly winds will develop behind the passage of the front
and there could be a small window where high gap winds impact the
Guadalupe Mountains and Carlsbad Caverns NP overnight Wednesday
night. Temperatures will trend colder behind the front with lows
in the 40s to lower 50s north of I-10 with some of the higher
terrain areas falling into the upper 30s. Highs on Thursday will
only reach into the 70s for most of the area, except for 60s in
the mountains and 80s along the Rio Grande. The upper-level low
to our west will slowly move across northern Mexico Thursday into
Thursday night before advancing across southern portions of our
area by Friday. Moisture looks to be very limited over our area as
this system passes across the region, so rain chances only look
to be 10 percent or less Thursday night and Friday at this time.
We will be back to dry northwesterly flow aloft with embedded
ridging overhead this weekend into early next week. A dry forecast
continues through Monday. Highs reach back into the 90s this
weekend while overnight lows remain mild in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected to remain prevalent through the next
24 hours. Westerly winds will increase late this morning into
early this afternoon, with gusts up to 25-35 knots and maybe
locally higher around CNM and HOB. Patchy MVFR visibility
restrictions from blowing dust may be possible around CNM and HOB
this afternoon where the strongest gusts occur but confidence
remained low enough to keep mention out of the TAF. Winds should
gradually decrease after 02Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               90  63  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 82  58  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   96  66  92  60 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton            90  64  86  52 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           72  53  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    81  56  80  43 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    83  52  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     87  64  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   86  64  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     86  61  84  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for Eastern Culberson.

NM...High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern
     Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21