282
FXUS64 KMAF 232322
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
622 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

- Dry weather expected with temperatures remaining near normal
  today through Monday.

- Slightly cooler temperatures return Tuesday and Wednesday. There
  will also be an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms
  (30-60 percent) Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

High pressure near the Four Corners region will continue to keep
West Texas and eastern New Mexico dry through the weekend. Current
satellite shows a field of cumulus has developed across the area,
but temperatures in the 80s to low 90s are preventing deep
convection from initiating. Tomorrow will be virtually identical
to today with seasonal temps and afternoon clouds that will fail
to generate any rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Meanwhile over Hudson Bay in Canada, an upper level low will
remain stationary early next week. The jet stream becomes
amplified over the north-central Great Plains pushing a cold front
into the area late Monday. Temperatures edge up slightly ahead of
the front Monday before cooler air from the front and increased
clouds and rainfall nudges highs back down on Tuesday. NBM
guidance has been steady showing moderate (30-50%) rain chances
beginning Tuesday and continuing into at least Wednesday. The
surface front will help provide a focus for convective development
though there is a noticeable lack of upper level support and can`t
help feeling PoPs may be a little high. However this summer we
have seen widespread convective coverage on similar days so
hopefully many areas will get additional beneficial rainfall next
week. Shear and instability do not support a significant severe
threat with only isolated flash flooding being a minor threat. The
low over Hudson Bay breaks down later in the week and the upper
flow over the Great Plains becomes more westerly. Southerly
surface flow returns Thursday and rain chances decrease slightly
though a weak disturbance Friday may bring rain chances right back
up.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals. Cu should hang around the
area for the next several hours. Easterly to southeasterly winds are
expected to be relatively light (mostly <10kts) throughout this
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               68  93  71  98 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 68  92  69  95 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                   70  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            67  93  69  95 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           64  84  66  87 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                    65  91  68  93 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                    56  85  57  87 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     69  94  71  97 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                   69  93  71  95 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                     68  93  70  96 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...55