555
FXUS64 KMAF 292250
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
550 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 549 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

- A low (10-30%) chance of thunderstorms are possible most
  afternoons, mainly over the higher elevations of the Davis and
  Guadalupe Mountains. Heavy downpours, gusty winds, and frequent
  lightning are possible

- A weak weather system may produce thunderstorms across the
  Permian Basin, as well as over the higher elevations, on Friday
  into Saturday.

- Temperatures remain near normal in the upper 90s and low 100s
  into the weekend. Well above normal temperatures, well into the
  100s, may arrive beginning next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

A day without showers/storms seems out of reach as persistent
shower/storm activity over west and northwest portions of the
forecast area each afternoon remain present, even as daytime
temperatures continue a warming trend due to strengthening mid to
upper ridging building in from the southeast US. VIS/IR satellite
imagery shows mostly clear skies early this afternoon with exception
of scattered cloud cover over Presidio Valley into Culberson County
and Eddy County Plains. These regions will again see a chance of
showers/storms as low (15% to 25%) probabilities of rain are present
over the Davis Mountains and region to the northwest into
northernmost Lea County this afternoon into this evening.
Instability, shear, and moisture will be sufficient for gusty winds,
frequent lightning, heavy rain, and hail in strongest storms. Highs
today are largely unchanged from previous forecasts, rising into mid
to upper 90s northeast and central Permian Basin into Upper Trans
Pecos, Stockton Plateau, and Terrell County, lower to mid 90s SE NM
plains into northwest Permian Basin, 80s higher elevations of
western Eddy County into W TX, and upper 90s to triple digits along
the Rio Grande. Decreasing speed of southeast winds later in the
evening will allow dew point temperatures to fall into the mid 40s
to lower 50s F range from southeast to northwest, setting the stage
for enhanced radiational cooling that in turn allow lows tonight to
fall into the mid 60s F to lower 70s F, lower to mid 60s F higher
elevations of Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos.

Wednesday sees lower but still present rain probabilities over Davis
Mountains and region northwest, with highest probabilities of rain
remaining low but reaching the 10% to 15% range over western and
northern Eddy County and northernmost Lea County in the late
afternoon and evening. High-res CAMs display isolated convective
activity over these regions. However, WPC Surface Analysis depicting
an anafrontal cold front over the TX Panhandle and high-res CAMs
depicting most of the more organized linear convection farther north
of the forecast area suggest rain chances will remain low, unless
southward development of cold front is faster. Both forecast grids
and ensembles suggest no more than a few tenths of an inch where
showers/storms occur, with higher rain amounts farther to the west
over central and southwest NM. Mid to upper ridging continues to
build over the central CONUS Wednesday, and increased large scale
sinking motion will maintain warming temperatures and decreased
cloud cover. This enables highs to rise into the upper 90s to triple
digits over most of the Permian Basin into Upper Trans Pecos and
along the Rio Grande into Terrell County, with upper 80s to lower
90s higher elevations, and mid to upper 90s SE NM plains into
northwest Permian Basin. Ensembles depict highest probability of
triple digits highs over Big Bend and Upper Trans Pecos. For the Big
Bend, highs 102F-107F are indicated in NBM grids. Lighter and
variable winds with trajectories less oriented off humid air mass
sources such as the Gulf maintain falling dew point temperatures.
Dew point temperatures are forecast fall into the 40s and 50s F
range by evening. Decreased boundary layer moisture along with
mostly clear skies after any convection decays after loss of daytime
heating again enables enhanced radiational cooling, with lows
falling into the mid 60s F to lower 70s F range, albeit a few
degrees warmer due to warmer daytime temperatures Wednesday.
Increased rain chances return to the area by Friday while warm
temperatures remain. Read the long term discussion for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

The ever-present summer ridge and associated high pressure maintains
its grip over the southern half of the United States. While the
center of this feature remains largely to our west, subtle changes
in location and a passing weather system to our north offer slight
variations to the forecast. Overall temperatures hover in the upper
90s and low 100s across the bulk of the region each afternoon. This
is slightly above normal for early August, but not overly
oppressive. A nearly daily low (10-30%) chance of thunderstorms is
maintained over the higher elevations of the Davis and Guadalupe
Mountains due to a combination of daytime heating and upslope
surface winds. That said, a weak weather system clips the region on
Friday into Saturday. This passing system could allow for the
Permian Basin to see a low (10-30%) chance of thunderstorms as well.
Appreciable rainfall will be hit or miss. By Sunday and into the
following week, the ridge slowly inches eastward, unleashing hotter
temperatures across the region. Temperatures may increase to well
above normal by early next week with many locations seeing
temperatures well into the 100s.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow,
w/a few cu invof KCNM Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  99  70  98 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 70  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                   69  99  71  99 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            68  99  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           66  87  68  87 /  10  10   0  20
Hobbs                    67  95  67  94 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                    60  91  61  92 /   0  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     70  98  71  98 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   69  96  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     68  98  68  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...99