484
FXUS64 KMAF 052251
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
551 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 550 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather conditions continue
  across the region through early next week.

- Slightly cooler temperatures and low (10-30%) rain chances
  briefly return Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Broad ridging will continue to have a hold over the region for the
short term forecast. By tonight, temperatures settle into the 60s
for most with 50s in the higher terrain. Highs on Monday reach back
above normal with most locations in the upper 80s to low 90s. Monday
night looks to be a repeat of tonight with similar temperatures
expected and mainly clear skies. Rain chances continue to remain
low(<5%) nearly areawide for all of the short term forecast.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

A broad upper-level ridge will continue to extend across west
Texas and southeast New Mexico through the middle part of the
week. A shortwave trough translating into the central Plains will
send a weak cold front southward into the Texas panhandle and
South Plains region Tuesday night. This boundary may at least make
it into the northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico plains
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before becoming diffuse
from southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos/Big Bend region by
Wednesday afternoon. Enhanced moisture and weak ascent in the
vicinity of this boundary may support the development of a few
showers and thunderstorms (measurable rain chances mainly between
20-30 percent) across the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New
Mexico plains, and northwestern Permian Basin Tuesday night. These
low rain chances will extend into the western Permian Basin,
Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and Big Bend area
along the boundary by Wednesday. We still do not anticipate much
change in temperatures on Wednesday behind this front (maybe just
a few degrees cooler than Tuesday).

The upper-level ridge will strengthen over our forecast area
during the latter part of the week and remain in place into the
first part of next weekend. Although moisture and upslope flow
could be sufficient to aid in the development of an isolated
shower/storm or two over the higher terrain areas late in the
week, very warm and dry weather conditions are expected remain
prevalent over our forecast area into Saturday. High temperatures
warm back in the mid 80s to lower 90s over the majority of our
region late this week and into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               62  89  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 63  90  64  85 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   64  90  65  89 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            65  90  64  88 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           62  81  61  77 /   0  10   0  10
Hobbs                    61  87  60  83 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    54  83  54  81 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     64  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   64  88  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     64  90  64  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...99