644
FXUS64 KMAF 191607
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1107 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1105 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- Isolated to widely scattered showers/storms could produce
  locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning this
  afternoon. Localized flash flooding will be possible in the
  heaviest storms that develop.

- Rain chances persist in the forecast through Tuesday evening,
  mainly favoring the western higher terrain. Localized flash
  flooding remains of concern in the event of occasionally heavy
  rainfall.

- Warmer and drier conditions return areawide by the middle of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Scattered showers/storms are ongoing across portions of southeast
New Mexico and west Texas, mainly west of the Pecos River. Most of
this activity looks to diminish by sunrise. The upper low
responsible for our unsettled weather currently resides near our
northern counties. Ensembles show this feature slowly drifting
southwestward through the Short Term period, with an upper level
ridge beginning to build in its place. Before the ridge takes hold,
lift associated with the upper low and a surface trough near our
westernmost counties will promote additional shower/storm
development today into Monday. Today, coverage looks to be isolated
over the eastern half of our area (rain chances between 10-30%).
Meanwhile, rain chances range between 40-60% over the western half
of the region, with the best chances favoring the higher terrain.
Isolated to scattered rainfall will be possible west of the Pecos
River through the overnight hours. Monday, 20-50% rain chances
largely become confined to areas near and west of the Pecos, with
the best coverage again remaining in the vicinity of the higher
terrain. Given PWAT values between 1-2" through Monday, and the fact
that many locations are already saturated from previous rainfall,
the potential for flash flooding remains a concern worthy of
monitoring. Aside from heavy rainfall, the strongest storms may also
produce gusty winds.

Cloud coverage, rainfall, and the presence of moisture overall
should help keep highs this afternoon in the mid 80s to low 90s.
Tonight, temperatures fall to the mid 60s to low 70s. Temperatures
warm a few degrees further Monday, as highs in the 90s become more
prominent.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Daytime convection from Monday will gradually taper off heading into
that night or at least be confined to the western edge of the CWA as
upper level ridging will gradually be taking hold over the Central
US. A return to summer will be seen through the rest of the coming
week. Temperatures areawide move a few degrees higher each day
moving from the low to mid 90s and into the upper 90s to low 100s by
Thursday and Friday of this week. Rain chances stay to the west for
Tuesday and Wednesday, but the pattern stays dry for much of the
region through at least Friday. Overnight lows also move up slowly
over the next several days with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s
in many spots.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Morning SHRA continue to dissipate across the area with VFR
prevailing currently. A return to scattered TSRA is expected later
this afternoon lasting into the evening. Amendments are likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               90  70  93  71 /  30  10  10   0
Carlsbad                 92  70  92  71 /  40  20  30  10
Dryden                   93  73  94  72 /  30  20  20   0
Fort Stockton            90  69  90  70 /  40  30  30  10
Guadalupe Pass           82  65  82  66 /  60  30  40  20
Hobbs                    89  66  90  68 /  30  20  10  10
Marfa                    83  60  83  60 /  50  40  30  20
Midland Intl Airport     89  70  91  71 /  30  10  10   0
Odessa                   89  70  90  71 /  30  10  10   0
Wink                     91  70  92  71 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...29