088
FXUS64 KMAF 111111
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
611 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

- Rain chances begin increasing tonight and peak late Sunday night
  before tapering off Tuesday afternoon. Best chances will be
  over Southeast New Mexico and areas of West Texas to the south.

- Warm and dry conditions return for the remainder of the upcoming
  work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

The short term forecast begins with the pattern shifting. Upper
level ridging that has dominated and kept temperatures above normal
begins shifting to the southeast as an upper low begins to push in
from the west. In addition to the upper low, remnant tropical
moisture moves in from the Pacific. For tonight, this translates
to 10-40% rain chances moving into the western portions of the CWA
including southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain. Rain
chances further increase heading into Sunday with 30-50% PoPs over
SE NM and 10-30% PoPs for portions of the Permian Basin, mainly
west of Midland/Odessa. WHile an upper level disturbance does pass
over the area, temperatures don`t look to respond significantly
and highs both today and on Saturday stay above normal in the 80s
to low 90s for most. Lows drop into the upper 50s across the
higher terrain and into the 60s everywhere else.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

This weekend, an upper-level ridge becomes wedged between a trough
over the western US and another trough over the southeastern US. The
ridge will stretch across central Mexico toward the Great Lakes
region. Southwesterly flow aloft sends plentiful moisture
streaming in from the remnants of tropical systems currently over
the eastern Pacific. Sunday evening, this moisture looks to
coincide with lift provided by a shortwave disturbance and a cold
front dropping down from the Panhandle. Rain chances across the
region are forecast to range anywhere from 10-70%, with best odds
over the higher terrain on our western fringes. Rain chances drop
back a touch Monday (10-50%), with best chances over southeastern
New Mexico. The disturbance departs northeastward early Tuesday
morning, taking our rain chances with it. The greatest concern
with this event will be occasionally heavy rainfall leading to
flash flooding. This will definitely be something to monitor
closely. Otherwise, rainy/cloudy conditions and the approaching
cold front keep temperatures Monday afternoon in the 70s over
southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain in west Texas, 80s for
most everyone else. Upper-level ridging begins to take back the
reins Tuesday ahead of another system set to swing by next
weekend. Dry conditions and a gradual warming trend sets in
Tuesday through Friday. Highs will generally range within the
80s/90s, with morning lows in the 50s/60s.

-Lopez

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR conditions continue through this morning. Gusts reach between
20-25kts at most terminals during the afternoon. Isolated
convection possible late this afternoon/evening for CNM/HOB, but
not included with this issuance due to low confidence on timing of
impacts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               88  65  90  66 /   0   0  10  20
Carlsbad                 87  65  83  64 /  10  20  50  60
Dryden                   90  64  91  66 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            89  66  88  66 /   0  10  20  30
Guadalupe Pass           79  61  70  58 /  10  30  60  70
Hobbs                    84  62  82  61 /   0  10  40  50
Marfa                    80  57  78  58 /   0  10  30  50
Midland Intl Airport     87  67  88  66 /   0   0  10  30
Odessa                   86  67  86  66 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                     89  66  85  66 /   0  10  30  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...93