807
FXUS64 KMAF 140658
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
158 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 151 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

- Slightly above normal temperatures and a low (20-40%) chance of
  thunderstorms for areas west of the Pecos River continue through
  the end of the week. Thunderstorms may become strong with heavy
  rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.

- Temperatures return to near normal by this weekend and into
  next week. A medium (40-60%) chance of thunderstorms stays
  largely confined to areas west of the Pecos River with a low
  (20-40%) chance of thunderstorms for areas further east each
  day.




&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

The ever-present upper-level ridge is expected to remain centered
over the Southern Great Plains today into Friday. With large-scale
subsidence and plentiful sunshine expected for most under this
ridge, hot temperatures are to be expected. Temperatures struggle to
cool into the upper 60s and lower 70s by sunrise this morning. These
warm morning temperatures become slightly above normal afternoon
temperatures in the upper 90s and lower 100s for the majority. Any
afternoon thunderstorms this afternoon are going to be focused over
the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains with the aid of southeasterly
upslope flow, but even this chance remains low (20-40%). Everywhere
else remains dry for the time being. Friday should be nearly a
carbon copy to today with only minor changes. Temperatures start a
touch warmer due to increased cloud cover, but afternoon
temperatures end up a touch cooler as the upper-ridge begins to
shift out of our region. As a result of this, a slightly higher
chance of thunderstorms is anticipated over the mountains. Severe
weather is not expected either this afternoon or Friday
afternoon, but any stronger thunderstorms could produce heavy
rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

A touch cooler temperatures and daily isolated to scattered storms
takes shape once again heading into the long-term period. Upper-
level ridging is expected to expand further eastward into the
mid/upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday placing the region on the
western periphery of this feature. This will allow portions of west
Texas and southeast New Mexico to have near to slightly above normal
temperatures this weekend into early next week. Shortwave impulses
within the upper-level flow, along with upslope flow is going to
promote ascent aiding in storm development mainly for locations west
of the Pecos River Valley on Saturday. By Sunday and Monday,
guidance is in good agreement with a surface high pressure centered
over the northern Gulf Coast which will advect more moisture in the
region. Areas primarily west of the Pecos River Valley will again
have the greatest chance (40-60%) in thunderstorms each afternoon
and evening during this timeframe. Areas elsewhere still have low
(20-40%) thunderstorm chances.

Tuesday, the aforementioned upper-level ridge retrogrades back to
the Rockies and Central Great Plains. Northeasterly flow aloft
settles in due to being on the eastern periphery of the high
pressure where disturbances within the flow enables ascent for more
thunderstorm development to occur. As a result, low to medium (20-
50%) storm chances are in store over many spots Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Overall, the area is looking at a typical summer
pattern with daily shots of precipitation. Stay tuned for forecast
updates!

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

VFR conditions prevail with southeasterly winds across all TAF
sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               99  76  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                100  73  98  74 /  10  10  10  20
Dryden                  100  75  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            99  74  98  73 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           90  70  88  67 /  10  10  30  30
Hobbs                    98  72  96  71 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    90  64  88  63 /  20  10  40  20
Midland Intl Airport     99  76  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   98  75  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    100  74  98  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...91