697
FXUS64 KMAF 200923
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
423 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 423 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

- Cool and calm weather today after an active day yesterday.

- Shower and storm chances nearly every afternoon/evening this
  week for the Central/Eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos
  beginning Tuesday.

- Seasonable temperatures through the period.

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

WV imagery this morning shows the upper trough over east central New
Mexico, scouring moisture and thunderstorms to the east.  MRMS
indicates over 8" of rainfall fell in Reagan County earlier as
thunderstorms trained over the area along a front, but these
estimates are likely hail-contaminated.  This cold front will easily
result in the coldest day this forecast as highs this afternoon
struggle upwards, but still end up ~ 5 F below normal.

Tonight looks to be cool as well.  Despite radiational cooling under
clear skies, a weak LLJ is forecast to develop, keeping mixing in
play and overnight lows ~ 5 F warming than this morning`s minimums.

Monday, thicknesses increase as return flow resumes, and southwest
flow aloft develops in response to troughing in the Pacific.  Highs
should rebound to 2-3 F above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

WV imagery this morning shows the upper trough over east central New
Mexico, scouring moisture and thunderstorms to the east.  MRMS
indicates over 8" of rainfall fell in Reagan County earlier as
thunderstorms trained over the area along a front, but these
estimates are likely hail-contaminated.  This cold front will easily
result in the coldest day this forecast as highs this afternoon
struggle upwards, but still end up ~ 5 F below normal.

Tonight looks to be cool as well.  Despite radiational cooling under
clear skies, a weak LLJ is forecast to develop, keeping mixing in
play and overnight lows ~ 5 F warming than this morning`s minimums.

Monday, thicknesses increase as return flow resumes, and southwest
flow aloft develops in response to troughing in the Pacific.  Highs
should rebound to 2-3 F above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

On Tuesday, a dryline will sharpen up over western portions of our
area. Meanwhile, a southerly/southeasterly 850 mb low-level jet is
expected to develop and pump Gulf moisture into west Texas. These
features, along with weak pulses within the upper-level
southwesterly flow, will encourage showers and thunderstorms to
develop over the Eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos (40-70%
chance of occurrence). Thankfully, upper-level flow looks to be
fairly weak during this time, which means wind shear will also
generally be weaker (ensemble and deterministic guidance indicates 0-
6 km shear of generally 25-35 kts). So, despite sufficient moisture
and instability, it looks like the severe weather threat will be
mitigated at this point.

This pattern more or less continues Wednesday and Thursday, meaning
low to medium rain/storm chances (30-60%) over the
Central/Eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos those days as
well! By Friday evening into Saturday, a weak front looks to enter
the area, bringing with it some more low to medium rain chances
for much of the region! All that is to say, our central and
easternmost locations in particular are going to see numerous
opportunities for precipitation by next week!

Besides the rain/storm chances, high temperatures will be seasonable
for this time of year (highs in the 80s generally), while lows will
be a bit warmer than average (upper 50s and low 60s) given the
increasing moisture at the surface and cloud cover/mixing at night
associated with the moist low-level jet (especially true for
easternmost locations). Winds will also be relatively weaker
across the area given the lack of any potent large-scale systems
or fronts. This will help limit fire weather concerns next week,
despite dry conditions for locations west of the dryline (ie
southeast New Mexico and the mountains of west Texas).

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 423 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Post-frontal
northwesterly winds will back to south after sundown.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  48  82  57 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 76  45  86  53 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   81  52  87  62 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            77  52  88  61 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           67  50  78  56 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                    72  45  82  53 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    72  42  82  51 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     74  49  83  58 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   74  50  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     77  48  87  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...44