447
FXUS64 KMAF 300845
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 345 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 8 PM
  MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for the Guadalupe, Davis, Chinati,
  and Delaware Mountains. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM
  MDT /noon CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Friday for the Eddy County
  Plains, as well as the Guadalupe, Davis, Chinati, and Delaware
  Mountains.

- A cold front Saturday brings slightly cooler temperatures over
  the weekend, before a warm-up next week.

- The cold front this weekend will result in a chance of rain,
  mainly Saturday afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge centered roughly over
eastern New Mexico, and this feature will continue dominating the
weather for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico over the next couple
of days.  Having moved very little over the past 24 hours, highs
this afternoon should be similar to yesterday`s, if not a skosh
warmer due to the closer proximity of the ridge.  As such, a Heat
Advisory is warranted for most of the mountains again.

Tonight, unseasonably warm overnight minimums continue, mainly due
to a recurring LLJ every night, occasionally assisted by mid/high
clouds to retard radiational cooling.  Overnight lows will come in ~
6-8 F above climatology.  Unfortunately, there`s no end in sight to
these warmer temperatures.

Friday, an upper trough is forecast to dig into the Great Lakes
region, attempting to nudge the ridge west to eastern Arizona.
Despite this, local thicknesses will continue increasing, yielding
the warmest day this forecast as highs plateau ~ 8-10 F above
normal.  If Heat Advisories are needed for the mountains today, they
certainly will be Friday, as well as the Eddy County plains, where
the Pecos River Valley looks to meet criteria, as well.  To the
north, a cold front from the aforementioned Great Lakes region trough
will move into the South Plains, possibly spawning convection down
into northern Lea County before the afternoon is out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Friday night, convection is forecast to continue developing south
into the CWA, with the front entering the northern zones sometime
Saturday morning.  For those who prefer cooler weather, this is a
rare treat, considering that 7/30-8/2 is climatologically the
warmest time of the year for KMAF.  The big question is how much
cooling will accompany this mid-summer cold front?  Some models,
such as the NAM, depict highs Saturday in the 80s, whereas the GFS
is around 10 F warmer.  The NBM, slower to respond as would be
expected with a blend, only shaves around 5 F off of Friday`s highs.
Assuming that diurnal heating will slow/modify the front somewhat as
it tries to move in Saturday, warmer solutions seem more realistic.
W/the strength of the cold front increasing with time as the event
nears, so have rain chances, rendering Saturday afternoon the best
chances of rain this forecast.  Chances move south with the front
Saturday night.

Sunday, under deep northerly flow aloft, and northeasterly flow at
the surface, the NBM keeps highs similar to Saturday`s, with
lingering convective chances mainly south of I-10.  The rest of the
week, the ridge will oscillate around the Four Corners, resulting in
a warmup not so much due to the upper ridge as the absence of the
front.  By Wednesday, highs should be back up to ~ 3-5 F above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow,
with a few high clouds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              101  75 103  75 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                102  75 104  75 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                  101  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           100  74 101  75 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           95  71  97  71 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                   100  72 102  72 /   0   0   0  30
Marfa                    97  66  99  67 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     99  75 101  76 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   99  75 101  76 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                    101  75 103  76 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
     MDT/ this evening for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
     Friday for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Friday for Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99