820
FXUS64 KMAF 230533
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1133 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1132 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

- Patchy fog possible along and south of I-20 Sunday morning.

- Much warmer temperatures return this weekend through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 143 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Temperatures have warmed nicely this afternoon with most locations
near 50 degrees. This is still well below normal for late February,
but cold air is on it`s way out as we speak. After another chilly
night of below freezing conditions, it may be a while before we see
a widespread freeze again. A weak storm system passes overhead
tonight with westerly flow taking hold Sunday. An isolated shower is
possible over the Permian Basin as this system moves by, but the
chance of measurable precipitation is <20%. Following the passage of
this trough, Arctic air will finally push east and leave us with
temperatures in the 70s nearly everywhere. This is only the
beginning of a very nice, warm week ahead!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 143 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

The long term forecast/work week begins with above normal
temperatures and dry conditions as mid-level ridging and
northwesterly flow aloft builds over southeast New Mexico/west
Texas Monday. Westerly downsloping flow and surface troughing
under the aforementioned mid-level ridge will help warm Monday`s
highs into the low to mid 80s over much of the area. Many
locations in the northern Permian Basin, Lea County in southeast
New Mexico, and higher elevations can expect to see highs in the
upper 70s. Some places along the Rio Grande may see highs in the
mid to upper 80s. Lows Monday night are forecast to be a above
normal, with temperatures in the 40s over much of the area. Some
spots in the Trans Pecos and along the Rio Grande could see
overnight lows in the low 50s.

Winds begin to shift northerly by early Tuesday morning as a weak
surface boundary pushes though portions of southeast New Mexico and
the northern Permian Basin. The boundary weakens by Tuesday
afternoon and surface troughing again keeps highs in the upper 70s
to low 80s across much of the region. Most locations along the Rio
Grande could expect to see highs in the mid to upper 80s, with a
couple spots topping out in the low 90s.

Ensemble and deterministic guidance depicts a mid-level shortwave
trough moving over the Rocky Mountains and central/southern Plains
Wednesday afternoon. An associated cold front will push through much
of our area, resulting in northerly to northeasterly winds and
cooler temperatures. Wednesday`s highs are currently projected to be
in the 70s for most, with the northern Permian Basin and much of Lea
County in southeast New Mexico potentially seeing highs in the upper
60s. Some spots along the Rio Grande could still see highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s on Wednesday. Another shortwave trough moves
into the region Thursday morning/afternoon. Despite mid-level
forcing, no precipitation is expected as the region will lack
sufficient moisture. Surface high pressure will build over southeast
New Mexico/west Texas Thursday, allowing for afternoon highs to
trend cooler across the forecast area. Most locations could see
highs in the mid to upper 60s, with 70s in the Trans Pecos/Big
Bend/Presidio Valley regions. Higher heights/greater geopotential
thickness associated with mid-level ridging should begin to move
through the region again by the end of the work week, allowing for
continued above normal temperatures and dry conditions.

-Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the forecast area
through Sunday evening. There is a low chance (10-20%) of patchy
fog formation across portions of the Permian Basin early Sunday
morning. Confidence remained low enough to keep mention out of the
KMAF TAF. Mainly light southwesterly winds will prevail overnight
before shifting westerly to northwesterly and increasing up to
10-15 knots with a few higher gusts late Sunday morning into
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               28  72  34  80 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 27  73  35  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   29  79  40  83 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            34  76  42  83 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           36  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    28  70  37  78 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    33  70  35  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     30  71  37  79 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   30  72  38  80 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     28  74  34  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...21