455
FXUS64 KMAF 121626 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1026 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1018 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

- High winds are expected in the Eddy County Plains,
  Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and Eastern Culberson County
  until this evening.

- Fog and drizzle stick around this morning for areas east of the
  mountains, but should begin eroding before noon.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions for southeastern
  New Mexico, Loving County, and areas west of the Pecos River in
  west Texas today.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Dense fog has lifted across the region, therefore, the Dense Fog
Advisory has been cancelled. Some lower visibilities due to mist
(2-5 miles) are still prevalent across some areas of the northern
Permian Basin. These lower visibilities should subside by 11AM-12
PM CST.

Lamberson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

WV imagery this morning shows the upper trough entering far west
Texas, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest
flow aloft.  Surface obs and mesoanalysis indicate high winds have
not yet developed in the Guadalupes, but models still suggest a high
wind event beginning sometime later today.  High clouds may play a
little hob w/mixing, but high winds still look possible, especially
this afternoon, w/the usual helping of BLDU.  We`ve also issued a
Wind Advisory for adjacent areas to the warning.  Everything east of
the mountains is currently socked in with stratus, fog, and drizzle,
but this should begin eroding W-E as increasing westerlies advect
drier air into the region later today.

As the upper trough moves through today, downslope warming and
clearing skies should result in a big warmup over yesterday in the
northeast zones.  The southwest CWA will be a few degrees cooler
but, on average, highs should top out near normal.

Unfortunately, these pleasant temperatures will be brief, as a cold
front drops in overnight behind the exiting trough.  Models have
been pretty consistent in bringing a hard freeze to areas along/east
of the Pecos, and temperatures in the northeast will be bumping up
against advisory criteria Thursday morning.  Models even develop
patchy drizzle in upslope flow from the Guadalupes to the Davis
Mountains Thursday morning.

Thursday looks cloudy, windy, and cold behind the front, but dry
after the aforementioned patchy drizzle in the morning.  Highs will
top out ~ 15 F below normal, especially northeast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

The long term begins with a chilly start to the Friday morning
commute, with lows ranging from the upper 20s to upper 30s for most.
Some spots near and along the Rio Grande are forecast to see lows
in the low 40s. However, higher geopotential thickness associated
with mid- level ridging and southerly to southwesterly winds at
the surface allow for high temperatures to climb 5-10 degrees
above normal Friday. Most of Lea County New Mexico and the Permian
Basin are expected to see highs in the low to mid 60s. Places
such as Eddy County New Mexico, the Trans Pecos, and Presidio
Valley are to see temperatures in the 70s. A broad mid- level
trough develops over the Baja California region Friday, and
invades southeast New Mexico/west Texas late Friday evening into
Saturday morning. Tighter pressure gradients due to the
aforementioned trough will likely increase winds across the area,
especially in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Current
ensemble and deterministic guidance suggests the possibility of
winds strengthening in the mountains and overspreading the whole
CWA Saturday afternoon during peak daytime mixing. High wind
products may be warranted to account for these higher winds in
future forecast packages. Temperatures remain mild Saturday with
strong westerly downsloping flow. However, highs will be a little
cooler than Friday`s as a cold front begins to make its way
through the area Saturday afternoon. Sunday night`s lows drop into
the 20s over the Permian Basin and southeastern New Mexico behind
the cold front. The Trans Pecos could see readings in the low to
mid 30s, while overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s are
expected further south. Cool temperatures stick around Sunday in
the post-frontal airmass, with highs in the 50s for most.
Temperatures over the northeastern Permian Basin may struggle to
hit 50F and spots near/along the Rio Grande could still see highs
in the 60s.

Mid-level zonal flow returns to the area on Monday, boosting
temperatures above normal again. Highs in the 60s may be felt from
Lea County in southeastern New Mexico, to the Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos. Eddy County New Mexico, the Trans Pecos and
locations further south are currently anticipated to see
temperature readings in the 70s. Another cold front begins to move
through northern sections of the CWA Tuesday afternoon, once
again dropping temperatures drastically Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

-Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 436 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

LIFR conditions will persist most terminals for a few hours this
morning, before surface winds shift to west and increase,
scattering cigs to VFR by 18Z everywhere. Plenty of high cloud
will persist through the duration of the forecast, however. A cold
front will move through the terminals after sundown.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return across
areas along and west of the Pecos River in southeast New Mexico,
west Texas, and southwest Texas this afternoon. Minimum relative
humidity values are forecast to range as low as 7 to 15 percent
across much of west and southwest Texas on today afternoon. Breezy
southwesterly 20-ft winds of up to 20 to 35 mph with higher gusts over
these areas this afternoon. A Fire Danger Statement was issued
this morning to account for these parameters. Didn`t go Red Flag
Warning since fuel moistures and ERC values look good. Conditions
are currently expected to improve Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               65  21  43  32 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 62  30  49  31 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                   77  37  51  38 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            70  34  53  37 /   0  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           54  34  48  36 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                    60  20  47  29 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                    63  41  60  34 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     65  23  46  33 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                   64  24  47  34 /   0  10  10   0
Wink                     67  28  49  34 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Eastern Culberson-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...44