276
FXUS64 KMAF 222246
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
446 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 445 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

 - Temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Get out and enjoy this weekend as temperatures are expected to be
well above normal under sunny skies! Weak mid level ridging will
continue over the region leading to a dry forecast (not much if
any clouds either). Temperatures by morning will start off in the
30s/40s with highs climbing quickly into the 70s and even some 80s
in the warm-favored locations. Winds will remain light through
the period so outdoor activities are in great shape. Southerly
winds and returning moisture will keep temperatures above normal
Sunday morning with lows generally in the 40s/50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Sunday features warm weather, highs at least 15 degrees above
average with widespread mid to upper 70s, low to mid 80s Rio
Grande basins into Terrell County, Stockton Plateau, Upper Trans
Pecos, and southern and eastern Permian Basins. Sunday night lows
will be warmer than average as well, near 15 degrees above average
with mid to upper 40s to lower to mid 50s.

Monday, a system looks to pass north of the area and push a cold
front through, dropping temperatures closer to 10 degrees above
average, translating to highs ranging from mid to upper 60s over
northern and central parts of SE NM plains and northern Permian
Basin as well as Guadalupes and Davis Mountains, upper 60s to
lower 70s over the central Permian Basin (including Midland-
Odessa), mid to upper 70s over Upper Trans Pecos and Stockton
Plateau into northern Presidio and Brewster Counties, and 80s and
above points south, lower 90s in the Big Bend.

We immediately start warming up again Tuesday into Wednesday as
ridging briefly builds in advance of the next approaching trough
later in the week. Highs in the mid to upper 60s to lower to mid
70s for most regions on Tuesday give way to highs in the mid to
upper 70s and upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday. Lows likewise
ranging from the mid 30s to mid to upper 40s on Monday night will
give way to lows ranging from the mid 50s to lower 50s Tuesday
night, and then decreasing back into the range of upper 30s to mid
40s, lower 50s confined to Rio Grande basins and Terrell County
Wednesday night.

Another system digs a bit farther south for the holidays Thursday
and Friday, potentially dropping temperatures back to near or
below normal. Deterministic and ensemble models also depict
suppressed ridging and more zonal flow. There is variance in
timing of cold air behind the trough for the end of next week
however. So while there is a definite cooldown indicated, whether
there are below normal or near normal temperatures and how the
smaller-scale features of the weather pattern pans out going into
next weekend are uncertain. We have pretty high confidence in
details of the first trough early next week. We have medium
confidence in exact details of the second trough toward the end of
next week. Otherwise, dry, with not a whole lot of wind. There
may be some more wind with the weather system late next week, but
it`s too early to tell what extent and magnitude of wind speeds
and gusts will setup over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 445 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR and light winds through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               42  75  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 34  75  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   44  75  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            45  81  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           45  68  50  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    37  73  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    42  76  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     43  73  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   44  73  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     38  75  43  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...29