265
FXUS64 KMAF 050521
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

- Severe storms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening
  with very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two as
  possible threats. Heavy rainfall may also lead to localized
  flash flooding.

- Warmer temperatures arrive Friday with many locations expected
  to reach the triple digits this weekend.

- Another front comes through Monday into Tuesday next week
  bringing temperatures back towards normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

The forecast remains on track with a front nearly stalled across
Terrell, Brewster, and Presidio counties. With the front nearby and
plenty of warming for this afternoon, a storm or two cannot be ruled
out for this evening. By tonight, return flow resumes and isolated
showers and storms will be possible across SE NM and the northern
Permian Basin, but are not expected to be strong or severe. Thursday
sees the dryline sharpen along the western edge of the CWA and hi-
res guidance provides two solutions for tomorrow afternoon. One is
less storm coverage overall with isolated storms across the Trans
Pecos. The other has greater coverage with storm mode starting off
as discrete cells becoming multicellular in nature by the late
evening. In either case, forecast soundings show an environment
favorable for very large hail(steep lapse rates, large CAPE profile
in the mid-levels), damaging winds, and even a tornado or two in the
most well organized cells. However, how much activity that is seen
tomorrow and into tomorrow evening is dependent on how tonight`s
convection to the north develops. Leftover boundaries may act as a
focus for storms to develop Thursday afternoon/evening.

Storms will gradually decay and push to the east by late Thursday
night. Lows areawide will be settle into the 60s to low 70s as low
level moisture and cloud cover keep temperatures from cooling more
efficiently.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Upper level ridge begins to move in from Northern Mexico on Friday
and will decrease overall rain chances for the weekend. Low(20-40%)
chances will remain across the Davis Mountains and over the northern
Permian Basin through the weekend. Highs each day will be quite warm
with many places reaching into the upper 90s to low 100s Friday,
Saturday, and Sunday afternoons. While this is still a couple days
away, excessive heat products may be needed for areas south of I-10.
Beyond this weekend, another system swings out of the west and
pushes a weak front across the region. Temperatures get knocked back
towards normal for Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Rain chances
during that time continue to be low(10-30%), but not zero!

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR conditions and southeasterly winds are prevailing at all
terminals at this hour. Low clouds resulting in MVFR ceilings are
beginning to increase and spread northwestward. These low clouds
are expected to cause MVFR ceilings at most terminals through the
late morning hours. FST and PEQ remain lower confidence on these
ceilings as model guidance is split on whether clouds remain off
to the east. VFR conditions return by the afternoon with elevated
southeasterly winds with some gusts. Late afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected for portions of the area, but timing
and coverage remain very low confidence at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  95  71  98 /  20  10  10   0
Carlsbad                 68  99  68 102 /  20  20  10  10
Dryden                   74  99  75 101 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            70  97  73 102 /  20  20  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           67  92  68  97 /  30  30  10  10
Hobbs                    65  93  66  98 /  20  20  20  10
Marfa                    64  91  65  94 /  50  40  30  30
Midland Intl Airport     72  96  73 100 /  20  10  10   0
Odessa                   71  95  72  99 /  20  10  10   0
Wink                     70  98  72 102 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...91