271
FXUS64 KMAF 162324
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
524 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 522 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

- A weak front Monday yields gusty winds, along with slightly
  cooler temperatures early this week.

- An upper-level system brings increasing rain chances and much
  cooler temperatures by the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 210 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Cooler weather is on the horizon after several days of record-
breaking warmth. Upper ridging begins gliding east of our area
tonight as a shortwave trough drifts from the Great Basin to the
central/northern Plains over the course of the short term period. At
the surface, a lee trough sends a Pac front into our CWA Monday,
leading to breezy, westerly and southwesterly winds and cooler
conditions. As per usual, the strongest winds Monday afternoon are
expected over the Guadalupe Mountains, although these look to remain
just below High Wind criteria, if not briefly reaching criteria.
Meanwhile, temperatures tonight primarily dip into the 50s. Monday`s
highs are forecast to range in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Monday night,
expect temperatures to be a mix of mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 210 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Upper-level flow becomes southwesterly Tuesday ahead of another
trough digging down along the west coast. Models are currently in
disagreement as to where exactly this next storm system will track.
A more southerly track would mean better moisture reaching our
region later in the week, while a northern track would keep us dry.
Until then, Tuesday shall look quite similar to Monday, with highs
in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Ensemble guidance shows the upper trough progressing over the Desert
Southwest late Tuesday into Wednesday, becoming negatively tilted as
it does so and generating a lee trough to our north. This brings
Gulf moisture surging into Texas and the Great Plains, setting the
stage for increasing rain chances Tuesday night through Thursday
evening. Activity looks isolated over the Permian Basin Tuesday
night and most of Wednesday. Enhanced lift from the approaching
trough and its associated Pac front further increases rain
chances regionwide Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The
best odds will lie over the eastern half of the region Wednesday
night. It`s still too soon to know specifics pertaining to severe
parameters, though ensembles hint at ample sheer, instability, and
steep lapse rates being in play during this time frame. Of
course, this will require monitoring over the next couple of
days.

Rain chances taper off throughout the day Thursday as the trough and
the front sweep past our CWA. Cooler temperatures and dry conditions
set in during the latter half of the week. Highs Thursday through
Saturday will feature 60s spreading southward each day. With any
luck, we may add more drops of water into the rain barrel and see
more seasonable temperatures!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Occasional gusts to around 20kts continue into this evening before
decaying. Winds remain southwesterly through tonight and tomorrow.
VFR remains at all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               54  82  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 52  77  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   56  87  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            56  83  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           50  65  48  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    51  75  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    43  75  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     57  80  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   56  79  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     52  79  48  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...93