604
FXUS64 KMAF 181915
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
215 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 215 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

- Near normal temperatures early this week, becoming slightly
  below normal by the middle of week, and continuing into next
  weekend.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms (40-60% chance)
  will develop over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains through
  Tuesday, with isolated to scattered storms (20-40% chance) over
  southeast New Mexico, portions of the Permian Basin, and Trans
  Pecos. Some storms will be capable of producing locally heavy
  rainfall, localized flooding, brief strong gusty winds, and
  frequent lightning strikes.

- There is a low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers/thunderstorms
  each afternoon and evening during the middle of the week for
  much of the region. There is an even higher (50-70%) chance of
  thunderstorms over the Davis Mountains during this time.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances lessen by the end of
  this week into next weekend. There is a low (10-30%) chance of
  thunderstorms for the Davis Mountains, Permian Basin, and Lower
  Trans Pecos Friday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Broad upper-level ridging remains in place over west Texas and
southeast New Mexico this afternoon, while surface lee troughing
extends from east central New Mexico into far west Texas. Abundant
deep layer moisture remains entrenched across our forecast area this
afternoon, with precipitable water values generally averaging
between 1.3 and 1.5 inches. The combination of the available
moisture, daytime heating and instability, weak shortwave impulses
traversing the area underneath the ridge, low level upslope flow
over the higher terrain, and remnant outflow boundaries will aid in
the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
across much of our region through the afternoon and evening hours.
The greatest coverage (40-60 percent) of storms this afternoon will
be focused over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and the adjacent
Van Horn Corridor/Marfa Plateau regions. Showers and storms should
be more isolated to scattered in coverage over the southeast New
Mexico plains and portions of the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos this
afternoon and evening, so will maintain lower convective chances (20-
40 percent) over these locations). A few showers and storms could
produce locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding given the
abundant moisture and relatively slow moving nature of convection
this afternoon and evening. A few storms will also be capable of
producing brief strong wind gusts over 40 mph and frequent cloud to
ground lightning strikes. Convective activity should diminish in
coverage after dark, but a few showers and storms could linger into
the late evening/overnight hours across portions of the northwest
Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and into the higher terrain of
west Texas. Lows tonight should continue to range in the lower to
mid 70s over much of the area, except for 60s in the higher
elevation areas.

The upper level ridge will retrograde westward and become centered
near the Four Corners on Tuesday. A few weak shortwave impulses will
still round the eastern and southeastern periphery of the ridge over
our area and will combine with ample moisture/instability and weak
upslope flow to aid in the development of another round of scattered
to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms (40-60 percent chance)
over the higher terrain areas of west/southwest Texas Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Other isolated to scattered showers and
storms (20-40 percent chance) will also develop across the remainder
of southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and the Trans Pecos
region. Some of this activity may linger into the evening before
diminishing late. A similar scenario for locally heavy rainfall and
localized flooding could materialize, especially over portions of
our western CWA that have received recent heavy rainfall. Another
relatively hot day is expected Tuesday with highs ranging in the mid
90s to around 100 degrees over much of the area, except for 80s in
the mountains and readings up to 105 degrees along the Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

An upper-level ridge becomes centered over the Four Corners region
by Wednesday coinciding with a broad positively-tilted trough across
the Upper Midwest. This trough will push a weak cold front towards
the southwest into our area, temporarily shifting winds out of the
northeast and bringing temperatures slightly below normal the latter
half of the week/into the weekend. This translates to daily
afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s for most with low to mid 80s
at higher elevations. Overnight lows each night looks to bottom out
into the 60s for most with some 50s at higher elevations. There is a
medium to high chance (20-70%) of showers/thunderstorms Wednesday
and Thursday across the whole forecast area in response to the
aforementioned cold front. During this timeframe, the highest
probabilities (50-70%) of rain are expected to be in the Davis
Mountains. However, chances of showers/thunderstorms decrease (10-
30%) Friday/into the weekend as the upper-level ridge to our west
builds. At this time, it is unclear of what precipitation amounts
should be expected through the extended, but the finer details will
be worked out as the week progresses. Areas who receive multiple
rounds of (and/or slow-moving) showers/thunderstorms may need to be
on the look out for flash flood potential as soils become saturated.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

VFR conditions will generally remain prevalent across the region
through the period. The exception will be localized reductions in
visibility near scattered showers and thunderstorms that will
develop this afternoon into this evening. We maintained a PROB30
mention of TSRA at all terminals this afternoon and evening
except for KMAF where confidence was too low. Gusty/erratic winds
and locally heavy rainfall will accompany the stronger storms that
develop. Winds will mostly remain S/SE this afternoon with
occasional gusts over 15 knots around KMAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74  97  73  95 /  10  30  20  40
Carlsbad                 72  95  71  93 /  30  30  20  40
Dryden                   74  99  74  99 /   0  30  10  30
Fort Stockton            73  97  71  95 /  10  30  10  50
Guadalupe Pass           68  86  68  84 /  30  50  10  40
Hobbs                    70  94  70  91 /  30  30  30  50
Marfa                    63  87  61  85 /  30  50  10  60
Midland Intl Airport     74  97  74  94 /  20  30  20  50
Odessa                   74  96  73  93 /  20  30  20  50
Wink                     72  97  72  93 /  20  30  10  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...21