744
FXUS64 KMAF 310750
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
150 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 147 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

- Well-above normal temperatures, mostly sunny skies, and dry
  conditions begin this afternoon and continue into next week.

- There is increasing confidence in record breaking high
  temperatures during the beginning of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 147 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

The upper-level trough that brought us gusty and dusty conditions
yesterday departs to our east. Winds have come down significantly
throughout the night. Lows this morning are still on track to settle
into the upper 20s and 30s.

On the backside of the trough, we`re left under dry, northwesterly
flow aloft. At the surface, a low is currently centered near south-
central Oklahoma and should continue to track eastward, bringing our
winds out of the northwest as it does so. A broad upper ridge fills
in behind the trough, allowing heights to increase, signaling the
start of a warming trend. Highs today will warm into the 60s and
70s, a stark contrast to what we`ve seen recently!

Friday night into Saturday, winds become southwesterly. Saturday
morning lows cool into the 30s, with highs in the upper 60s to mid
70s. The short term looks to remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 147 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Early Spring-like temperatures begin to truly take hold on Sunday.
As heights increase across the southern Great Plains alongside
continued mid-level ridging, temperatures climb further. Sunday
starts mild with most holding in the 40s through the night. Sunny
skies and the aforementioned weather pattern push temperatures into
the mid to upper 70s for many during the afternoon as 80s creep into
the low-lying river valleys. Temperatures climb even further under
this consistent weather pattern into the new week, putting many
records in jeopardy. At this time, model consensus keeps much of the
region mild through the morning hours with most seeing 40s and even
low 50s to start each day. Mostly sunny afternoons foster
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s each day through the first
half of the week. 90s may even materialize in the Big Bend for an
early shot of Summer-like temperatures for that area. As mentioned,
records may fall during this time period with record high
temperatures within spitting distance each day for Midland
International Air & Space Port. The February 3 record of 83 from
2021, the February 4 record of 79 from 2008, and the February 5
record of 81 from 2006 all have a high (60-80%) chance of falling
next week based on current probabilistic guidance. The warmer
weather does not hang on for too long though. An upper-level weather
system is expected to move through the central Rockies on Thursday,
lowering heights slightly. This weather system should end any record
warmth. With that said, 70s and even 80s are still anticipated. By
the end of next week, a strengthening upper-level low pressure over
the Great Lakes may finally be enough to push a cold front south
through the region. This cold front may merely return temperatures
to near-normal as it currently stands. Afternoon temperatures in the
60s and 70s are of moderate (40-60%) confidence to close out the
first week of February. Rain remains out of the question at this
time. Enjoy the outdoors during this early warm stretch!

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

VFR conditions and light westerly winds will continue the next 24
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               68  33  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 65  30  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   73  40  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            68  38  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           55  36  61  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    64  33  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    63  31  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     66  36  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   66  38  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     68  32  74  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...95