177
FXUS64 KMAF 242311
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
611 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

- Dry weather and seasonably hot temperatures continue through
  Monday.

- Slightly cooler temperatures return Tuesday and Wednesday. There
  will also be a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
  through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Today has been another day of normal temperatures and afternoon
clouds with no precipitation. Not bad for outdoor activities, if a
little bit warm. Low tonight drop into the 60s and low 70s before
a similar day tomorrow as highs reach the 90s once again. The only
chance for rain will be in portions of southeastern New Mexico
that will have a very low (<15%) chance of a stray shower
developing in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

NBM guidance has backed off noticeably on rain chances for next
week. A cold front is still expected on Tuesday that will shave a
few degrees off highs on that day, though it appears a lack of
upper level support may limit rain chances. There has been concern
that guidance was too strong with PoPs next week given this lack
of support as well as a lack of representation in the
deterministic models and this may be in fact what will occur. An
upper ridge extending from the Four Corners into central Texas
will limit convection though models show a couple of weak
disturbances moving into West Texas in northwest flow may be
enough to cause some scattered showers, especially for the
northern half of the CWA. Orographic lift in the mountains west of
the Pecos River may also be enough to cause some scattered showers
and storms to develop.

It now appears the best rain chances may not be until Friday when
the next decent cold front is expected. Confidence is pretty low
and this time of year models tend to be too aggressive with these
early season fronts and they end up being weaker than early model
runs suggest. Should the front hold together and move through then
temperatures could be quite reasonable with highs only in the 80s
and modest (30-40%) rain chances Friday and into the weekend.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

VFR conditions continue at all terminals. Light southeasterly
winds remain through the night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  96  69  91 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 68  95  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   71  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            69  95  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           65  86  66  84 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                    68  94  66  89 /   0  10   0  10
Marfa                    58  87  59  86 /   0  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     71  96  71  91 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   71  95  70  91 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     70  96  70  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93