359
FXUS64 KMAF 011101
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 600 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

- A Flood Watch is in effect through early this evening for Southeast
  New Mexico and all of West Texas except Terrell County.

- Excellent chances of rain are expected through Thursday, then
  decreasing into next week, and centered on the Davis Mountains.

- Temperatures will gradually warm to near-normal Saturday, then
  cool slightly Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Daily showers/storms with cooler than average temperatures are
expected to persist in the short term. Deterministic and ensemble
models continue to depict the area sandwiched in between mid to
upper ridging over the southeast US and troughing over the Pacific
Coast. This sets up moisture-rich southerly flow aloft allowing for
passages of disturbances aiding in mid to upper ascent. Closer to
the surface, WPC Surface Analysis depicts a southward moving quasi-
stationary cold front, with humid, upslope southeast winds
continuing and advecting in dew point temperatures in the mid to
upper 60s F, lower to mid 60s F western higher terrain. PWATs 1.4 to
1.8" and 1.5 to 1.75 standard deviations above climatology in this
warm and humid air mass will continue to allow for warm rain
processes and a flash flood threat. Soils are saturated from a band
of showers/storms apparent on IR and radar moving northwest across
north-central Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau early this
morning. As a result, have extended Flash Flood Watch to 00Z
Tuesday, and added eastern counties over the Permian Basin as well
as Pecos County to the Flash Flood Watch. Following band of
showers/storms that moves northwest into SE NM plains early this
morning, PoPs increase from low to medium to medium to high by this
afternoon into this evening, except for over eastern Permian Basin
into Terrell County where medium PoPs will persist. With overcast
and low cloud cover limiting diurnal heating and evaporational
cooling from scattered to numerous showers/storms, highs today again
will end up cooler than average, featuring mid 70s over SE NM
plains, western Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos, 60s highest
elevations of Guadalupes and Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos,
and 80s central, eastern, and southern Permian Basin into Terrell
County into Rio Grande valleys. Warmest temperatures in mid 80s to
lower 90s other than in the Big Bend are likely over
northeasternmost Permian Basin where just like the past few days,
lowest coverage and frequency of showers/storms is forecast. Gusty
winds are likely to develop in a LLJ as winds shift more easterly to
southeasterly this evening, especially over Pecos River. Tonight, as
PoPs decrease back into medium range, lower range northeast regions,
and winds decrease again, lows in mid to upper 60s F, lower 60s F
higher elevations, and lower 70s easternmost and southernmost
regions are forecast as low clouds and continued dew point
temperatures in the 60s F limit radiational cooling.

Tomorrow, PoPs increase to medium to high, medium easternmost
regions by afternoon as a similar synoptic setup to today again is
present. The quasi-stationary front with easterly to southeasterly
upslope flow, continued passage of disturbances aloft aiding with
mid to upper tropospheric lift, and climatologically above average
boundary layer and tropospheric moisture will allow development of
scattered to numerous showers/storms. High temperatures will be
similar, albeit a few degrees warmer as winds will have a more
southerly component than today as the quasi-stionary front washes
out. As in the past days, exact location of showers/storms depends
upon on smaller scale influences like outflow boundary and terrain
interactions. Gusty winds are indicated tomorrow afternoon into
evening, mainly north and east of Davis Mountains. Highest PoPs
today and tomorrow will set up over Marfa Plateau into Guadalupes
and surrounding Eddy County Plains. However, flash flooding is
possible anywhere heavy rains occur. NBM grids show 0.50" to 0.75"
at least over western higher terrain of W TX into SE NM plains and
northwest Permian Basin, with 0.75" to 1.25" for these regions, and
as high as 1.50" to 1.75" indicated over peaks of Davis Mountains as
well as Eddy County Plains. Lowest percentile ensembles also depict
at least a few tenths of an inch over SE NM plains into tomorrow
evening, with spreads of 0.75" to 1.50" showing potential for heavy
convective rains. Medium to high probability of 0.50" to 1.00"
rainfall over Marfa Plateau into SE NM plains and Permian Basin, and
medium probability of 1.50" to 2.00" SE NM plains with a region of
2.00" over Eddy County Plains in NBM grids suggest these regions
will see the greatest flash flooding risk. While welcome and helping
put a dent in the drought, these rains will make travel hazardous
and may lead to dangerous conditions in lower lying areas near
bridges and crossroads. We will continue to monitor this heavy
rainfall situation as it develops.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Wednesday night, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico are forecast to
lie under southwest flow aloft on the west side of an upper ridge,
buttressed by a trough over SoCal.  This feature is forecast to open
and attenuate, passing through the area around Friday.  As a result,
best chances of rain will be Wednesday night/Thursday, w/the NBM
continuing to concentrate on the Davis Mountains/Big Bend Area.
Latest NAEFS ensembles keep PWATS a minimum of 2 std devs above
normal through 18Z Saturday, so the window remains open to continue
denting the rainfall deficit before the ridge arrives.  Chances
gradually decrease into next week as the trough attenuates and the
upper ridge begins building back into West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico.  Being the NBM, POPs are most likely too high from about
Friday night through the end or the forecast.  Wind speeds are too
low throughout the extended forecast, as well.

With the attenuation/passage of the trough and arrival of the ridge,
a warming trend is in store for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
NBM gradually increases temperatures through Saturday, which should
be the warmest day this forecast.  Even so, highs Saturday should
average right around normal for early July, decreasing only slightly
Sunday/Monday.  Unfortunately, a recurring LLJ each night will
continue to keep overnight lows uncomfortably warm.  These will peak
Sunday morning at around 5 F above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

MVFR or lower CIGs throughout TAF period, with IFR CIGs likely
where persistent showers/storms and/or mist or fog occur.
Confidence in timing of CIGs lowering below MVFR or increasing
above IFR where CIGs decrease to IFR is low. Main threats in any
storms impacting terminals are heavy rain, gusty winds, lightning,
and small hail. MVFR or lower VIS where showers/storm occur as
well, otherwise VFR VIS with low stratus, and highest confidence
in MVFR or lower VIS for terminals over SE NM plains, especially
terminals in Lea County 20Z-04Z. Easterly winds shift to
southeasterly 14Z-20Z, becoming gusty during this same time frame.
Southeast winds gusting above 20 knots for terminals on Stockton
Plateau and up to 15 knots elsewhere. Winds decrease 00Z-06Z and
continue to stay lower into end of period, except for terminals in
Stockton Plateau and Upper Trans Pecos where gusty winds may
continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               84  70  84  70 /  50  50  50  40
Carlsbad                 75  65  77  67 /  90  80  80  60
Dryden                   81  70  83  72 /  60  50  50  50
Fort Stockton            78  67  81  68 /  70  60  70  50
Guadalupe Pass           69  61  72  62 /  80  60  70  50
Hobbs                    77  65  77  66 /  80  70  70  50
Marfa                    74  62  75  63 /  80  70  90  60
Midland Intl Airport     81  69  81  70 /  50  60  50  50
Odessa                   79  68  80  69 /  60  60  60  50
Wink                     78  67  80  68 /  70  60  60  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for Andrews-Borden-Central
     Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern
     Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above
     7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-
     Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-
     Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch through this afternoon for Central Lea-Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-
     Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...94