352
FXUS64 KMAF 031756
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1256 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1256 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

- There is a Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk of severe weather across
  the Permian Basin this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds is
  expected to be the main hazard, but large hail and a tornado
  can`t be ruled out.

- Widespread highs in the triple digits are forecast through the
  end of the week. Several areas look to reach Heat Advisory
  criteria. Keep cool and stay hydrated!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

A relatively complex forecast is taking shape this afternoon and
evening. While the upper-level ridge is beginning to strengthen and
move towards our region, a shortwave trough is beginning to dig
across the central Great Plains. Ahead of these features, a decaying
area of showers and thunderstorms with associated cloud cover has
entered the Permian Basin. This may delay, but be a foci, for
additional thunderstorm develop late this afternoon and evening.

With the building ridge, intense daytime heating pushes temperatures
across the lower elevations and plains into the lower 100s. The
higher elevations even see their temperatures climb well into the
mid to upper 90s. By late this afternoon, scattered thunderstorms
are anticipated to develop across the western Permian Basin and over
the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. Any
thunderstorms that develop are expected to move off towards the
southeast through the evening ahead of the aforementioned
approaching shortwave trough over the central Great Plains.
Thunderstorms over the Permian Basin may pose a risk of severe
weather with a Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk forecast. While, low-level
moisture due to the very hot temperatures may limit instability, 30
to 40 kts of effective wind shear with the approaching shortwave
will help to organize thunderstorms. A well-mixed boundary layer
results in high cloud bases and an increased risk for damaging
winds. This is expected to be our main hazard with thunderstorms
through this evening, but large hail and a tornado can`t be
completely ruled out. Thunderstorms quickly dissipate through the
late evening with the loss of daytime heating.

Lingering cloud cover across the southern half of the region keeps
most locations warm into Monday morning with widespread 70s
expected. To the north, a weak cold front and clearing skies allows
60s to infiltrate the area during the morning hours. While the ridge
continues to strengthen on Monday, the weak cold front limits this
potential. Slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 90s hold on
across the northern Permian Basin and over the higher elevations,
while elsewhere soars into the 100s. A few locations across the Big
Bend may even surpass 110 degrees. Heat Advisories may be required
for some of our southern locations that see the worst of this heat.
With the building ridge, large-scale subsidence increases, lessening
thunderstorm potential for the majority of the area. The exception
to this is over the Davis Mountains, where a slight chance of
thunderstorms remains through the afternoon. Temperatures heading
through Monday night into Tuesday morning are slow to cool, offering
little relief from the heat. Most struggle to fall into the lower
70s by sunrise with any cooler temperatures in the 60s confined to
northern Lea County and the higher elevations.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Summer heat ramps up as upper-level riding continues to track
eastward, becoming centered over New Mexico on Tuesday. Without any
major steering pattern, the ridge remains relatively stationary
through the week. Heading into the upcoming weekend, ridging looks
to start weakening, allowing highs to taper down closer to normal.
Through the workweek, widespread highs in the upper 90s to 100s will
be the norm each afternoon. The hottest conditions are expected
within the Big Bend, especially along the Rio Grande, where highs
are forecast to reach near to slightly above the 110 degree mark
through the end of the week. As it stands, triple digit heat looks
to decrease in coverage on Saturday as the upper ridge weakens. By
next Sunday, highs in the 90s are forecast to return for most of the
area. Lows each night are forecast to mainly settle into the 70s,
with the exception of the 60s in and near the Davis Mountains. Given
the expected extended heat, little recovery at night, and near zero
rain chances, heat products are likely across several locations
within the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout much of the TAF period.
Winds will generally be light and southeasterly across the region.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Permian Basin late
this afternoon and evening. TAF impacts remain uncertain for CNM,
HOB, and INK as any thunderstorms may remain to the east of these
terminals. Trends will continue to be monitored if aviation
impacts increase. MAF has the highest confidence of impacts near
the 00Z time period. Brief visibility reductions with gusty and
variable winds are possible near any thunderstorms that do
develop. Thunderstorms dissipate after sunset with lingering high
clouds and light southeast winds through the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  99  72 100 /  40   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 70 101  72 102 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   76 104  75 102 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            75 104  75 102 /  30  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           70  94  71  95 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    67  98  70 100 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    65  96  64  95 /  20  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     73 101  74 100 /  40   0   0   0
Odessa                   73 100  74 100 /  40   0   0   0
Wink                     73 102  74 102 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...91