852
FXUS64 KMAF 031809
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
109 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 102 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather conditions will
  continue across the region through early next week. Breezy to
  gusty southerly winds are expected Saturday and Sunday
  afternoon.

- Slightly cooler temperatures and low (10-40%) rain chances
  return by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

A quiet surface and upper air pattern continues with unseasonably
warm and dry weather into the weekend. However, strengthening lee
troughing from SE NM into W TX results in strengthening
south/southeast upslope winds. Despite breezier winds, lack of
moisture scoured out from past continental frontal systems keeps dew
point temperatures below the mid 50s F, so upslope near surface
winds will only be accompanied by a few clouds and a continued
distinct lack of humidity. VIS/IR satellite imagery early this
afternoon again shows little to no cloud cover, with isolated cloud
cover across northern portions of the CWA drifting west/northwest in
the south/southeast near surface winds. Additionally, lack of cloud
cover and boundary layer moisture/low dew point temperatures are
once again allowing surfaces to warm up rapidly. Highs today rise
into mid 80s F to lower 90s F, lower to mid 80s F higher elevations,
and mid to upper 90s F Big Bend, only a few degrees cooler than
yesterday. This is due to southerly winds backing more easterly,
allowing slightly "cooler" and more "humid" weather than yesterday.
Light winds overnight and continued low boundary layer moisture
allow lows to once again fall into the mid 50s F higher elevations,
surrounding foothills and basins, and usual cooler spots of northern
SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin, lower to mid 60s F
elsewhere. Winds veer more southerly again tomorrow and become gusty
in the afternoon/evening from Stockton Plateau into SE NM plains as
lee troughing again strengthens. Dew point temperatures stay
elevated but below the mid 50s F areawide, maintaining a dry feel to
the air despite warming temperatures. Highs warm back into the upper
80s F, lower to mid 80s F higher elevations, and lower to mid 90s F
Upper Trans Pecos and along Rio Grande. Lows tomorrow tonight will
stay in the lower to mid 60s F apart from 50s F higher elevations
and northern Lea County as a result of gusty southerly winds
persisting overnight. The warm and dry early October weather will
not be fading anytime soon, but the near zero rain chances and
mostly clear skies might. Read the long term discussion for more.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

The forecast remains unchanged. The warmer than normal temperatures
and dry weather pattern continues on Sunday due to the persistent
upper ridging and southwesterly flow aloft over the region. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 80s to mid 90s for most
locations. Gusty southerly winds are also expected Sunday afternoon,
thanks to the area wedged between a surface high off to the east and
broad low pressure off to the west. By Monday and Tuesday, slightly
cooler temperatures are anticipated as lighter winds shift
southeasterly, pulling in Gulf moisture. Highs both days will span
in the 80s to lower 90s for many locations. Low (10-40%)
precipitation chances return Tuesday night through Wednesday as
guidance has a weak cold front and surface troughing over the
forecast area. The greatest chance of rain lies over portions of
southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain. Wednesday high
temperatures dip into the mid 70s and mid 80s, which will keep
temperatures slightly above normal for this time of year. Cluster
analysis and ensemble guidance show upper-level ridging settling
back into the region late next week into the weekend, promoting warm
and dry conditions once again.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VFR conditions and mostly clear to clear skies with no rain
chances are forecast throughout TAF period. South/southeast winds
at terminals becoming breezy 19Z-23Z before decreasing 00Z-06Z,
then becoming breezy again 15Z into end of period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               64  89  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 60  89  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   63  90  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            63  89  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           59  80  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    59  86  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    52  81  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     64  88  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   64  87  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     61  89  64  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...94