573
FXUS64 KMAF 190607
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
107 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 106 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

- Near normal temperatures are expected through the middle of this
  week. There is a daily low to medium (20-40%) chance of
  afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the region, with a
  slightly higher (40-60%) chance of thunderstorms over the Davis
  and Guadalupe Mountains. Thunderstorms may produce brief heavy
  downpours, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.

- Drier weather for much of the area beginning Thursday and continuing
  into early next week. Low (15% to 30%) probability of
  showers/storms for southeastern/southern parts of forecast and
  higher elevations of Marfa Plateau. Low probability of rainfall
  more than a few tenths of an inch.

- Remaining warm, however, dew point temperatures decrease with
  decreasing showers/storms. Clearer skies and lighter winds
  overnight allow for lows to fall into the 60s F over a larger
  region compared to earlier this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 106 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The upper-level ridge continues to become centered near the Four
Corners region this morning. Circulating around the periphery of
this feature are multiple convectively-enhanced disturbances.
These disturbances will keep the unsettled weather pattern in
place across the region through the middle of this week.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly weaken and dissipate
across Southeast New Mexico and the Upper Trans Pecos shortly
after midnight this morning. By sunrise, quiet conditions should
return with only lingering clouds. These clouds continue to keep
morning temperatures on the warmer side. With the exception of the
mountains and northern extents of the region falling into the
60s, the remainder of the area only falls into the 70s. Afternoon
temperatures continue their run of normalcy. Temperatures in the
80s can be expected across the mountains with 90s for most other
locations. Any 100s are confined to the Big Bend. Afternoon
thunderstorms are anticipated across the area once again. Most
locations can expect a low to medium (20-40%) chance of
thunderstorms into the evening hours. A relatively higher (40-60%)
chance of thunderstorms is anticipated for portions of the Davis
and Guadalupe Mountains.

Wednesday`s forecast will almost mirror today`s forecast. Morning
temperatures will be a touch cooler as another disturbance sinks
south into the southern Great Plains by the afternoon. This will
be accompanied by a weak cold front. This front only drops
temperatures a couple degrees, but may help focus thunderstorms
increasing the chance of precipitation slightly. Other than these
subtle differences, same thing, different day.

Any thunderstorms will be capable of brief heavy downpours. A
quick half an inch to inch of rain may be possible with the
stronger thunderstorms. Otherwise, gusty winds and frequent
lightning are the only expected hazards from this activity.

-Chehak
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 106 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The forecast period begins Wednesday night with showers/storms
winding down, with a low to moderate (15% to 30%) probability of
showers/storms over Terrell County into southeast Permian Basin.
Highs Thursday are forecast to rise into the lower to mid 90s F,
with mid to upper 80s F at higher elevations, and upper 90s F to
triple digits along the Rio Grande. Dew point temperatures are
expected to remain in the lower to mid 60s F, with upper 50s F in
the western higher terrain, keeping rain chances around Thursday.
The highest probability of rain (25% to 35%) is forecast for the
southeast Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, and Terrell County down
into the Big Bend and up into the Marfa Plateau. Heavy rain and
gusty winds are expected from storms, with localized flash
flooding possible where repeated showers/storms occur.

Friday marks a change in the rainfall pattern as mid to upper
ridging retrogrades into the Four Corners and Great Basin, placing
much of W TX on the eastern side of the ridge, with
east/southeast winds prevailing. While high temperatures remain
similar to Thursday, a low probability (15% to 30%) of rainfall is
expected each afternoon/evening over southeast Permian Basin,
southern Rio Grande basins into Marfa Plateau, as large scale
sinking motion from ridging to the west results in a very low
probability of rain elsewhere for central and western parts of the
forecast area. Forecast rainfall amounts in grids are only a few
tenths of an inch, with ensembles showing a low probability of
amounts greater than 0.50". Consequently, majority of flood risk
is anticipated early in the period, with the drier pattern at the
end of this week into early next week limiting the flood risk.
Mostly clear skies and light winds are forecast for Friday night
through Monday night, allowing lows to fall into the 60s and lower
70s F for most, and into the upper 50s to lower 60s F for Marfa
Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

VFR conditions are expected during much of the TAF period.
Light showers and low to mid-level clouds continue to slowly
dissipate over the next couple of hours. Light winds are expected
overnight before shifting to primarily easterly and southeasterly
by the afternoon. Afternoon thunderstorms are once again expected
across the region. Confidence in the exact timing and location
remains uncertain with the best confidence for impacts only
including FST at this time. Any aviation impacts include gusty,
erratic winds, reduced visibility in heavy rain, and lightning
should any thunderstorms approach a terminal. Trends will be
monitored for potential inclusion of thunderstorms in other TAF
forecasts as confidence increases on the timing and location of
thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               97  73  95  71 /  30  20  40  20
Carlsbad                 94  71  92  70 /  30  20  40  10
Dryden                   99  74  98  74 /  30  20  30  20
Fort Stockton            96  71  94  71 /  30  20  40  20
Guadalupe Pass           85  67  84  66 /  50  20  40  10
Hobbs                    94  69  91  68 /  20  20  40  20
Marfa                    86  62  85  61 /  50  20  60  10
Midland Intl Airport     96  73  94  71 /  30  20  40  20
Odessa                   95  72  93  71 /  30  20  40  20
Wink                     96  72  93  70 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...91