051
FXUS64 KMAF 152301
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 558 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Daily heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat particularly for
  areas south of I-10 through at least Friday.

- Multiple instances of flash flooding expected, especially in the
  areas of heaviest rainfall and low water crossings.

- Below normal temperatures continue through the weekend, before
  warmer and drier weather builds back in by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Current satellite imagery shows an upper low situated over west
Texas. This low has provided a lot of rainfall over the past
couple of days especially for areas across the Lower Trans Pecos
extending into the Big Bend. Rain coverage will be limited today
due to upper- level dry air on the backside of the system.
Isolated to scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder are in
store today mainly across portions of the Permian Basin, Lower
Trans Pecos, and Big Bend region. The flash flooding threat
persists today and tomorrow due to the combination of heavy
rainfall and recently saturated soils/surfaces. The aforementioned
upper low shifts west overnight tonight keeping isolated showers
across the region. Tomorrow, coverage increases across the
forecast area as the low stalls west of the Pecos River. As a
result, the greatest rain chances are forecast for similar areas
(Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend, and Permian Basin). Other than the
heavy rainfall, high temperatures are expected to range from the
upper 70s to 80s areawide both days.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Scattered to widespread showers/storms with a risk of flash
flooding persist from the end of the week through this weekend,
before rain chances slowly decrease and temperatures warm back
closer to seasonal for this time of year. 3hr PoPs of 45% to 60%
persist across the southern and eastern part of the forecast area
on Friday, as deterministic models are consistent in showing a mid
to upper low currently over SW TX continuing to develop west over
W TX. The low will provide forcing for ascent and moisture
convergence to sustain showers/storms, in combination with daytime
heating and continued humid south/southeast winds across the
southern and eastern parts of the forecast area. While
temperatures stay in the 70s and 80s F with dew point temperatures
in the upper 60s to lower 70s F in the lower troposphere, drier
mid-levels allow for PWATs to fall into the 1.25" to 1.50" range,
lower than the 1.40" to 1.70" range seen earlier this week. This
may slightly reduce rain totals from less efficient warm rain
processes, but ensembles still indicate a 40% to 60% chance of
rain totals 0.50" to 1.00" from Friday morning through Saturday
morning for Terrell County, Rio Grande and Marfa Plateau, and up
to the Permian Basin. Higher end rain totals for Friday through
Saturday alone are still in the 2" to 3" range and up to 4" to 6"
for Terrell County into the central and eastern Permian Basin as
well. This will continue the threat of flash flooding, especially
near low lying regions such as creeks, streams, and arroyos. A
Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the southern part of the
forecast area and may have to be extended north into the Permian
Basin through Friday. Hikers and campers should be prepared to
move to higher ground and away from camp sites if flash flood
warnings are issued, and motorists should continue to exercise
caution when driving. Remember, when you see flooded roadways,
turn around, don`t drown!

Rain chances carry over into Saturday and Sunday, with highest
rain chances of 45% to 65% over the Presidio Valley and western
higher terrain of the Guadalupes into Marfa Plateau. NBM and
ensembles indicate a 40% to 60% chance of rainfall up to 0.50"
over the Marfa Plateau, and higher end totals of 2" to 3" still
possible. Highs this weekend rise into the 80s to lower 90s F with
exception of 70s F higher elevations, as clouds begin to decrease
from east to west in association with the upper low slowly
developing west into the northern MX plateau. The warming trend
continues early next week, but 40% to 60% rain chances southwest
of the Pecos River persist Monday with a low to medium chance of
an additional few inches of rainfall over soils and slopes that
are near saturation from earlier rains. Therefore, flash flooding
risk will continue through at least early next week, and anyone
participating in outdoor activities will want to take proper
precautions and avoid low water crossings. Rain chances finally
start to decrease after Monday and the familiar cycle of 10% to
40% afternoon shower/storm chances over western higher terrain re-
establishes. As mid to upper ridging builds south from the
Rockies into the Southern Great Plains and large scale sinking
motion reasserts itself, highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s F
return, while lows settle back into the mid 60s to mid 70s F
following the upper 50s to lower 60s F lows seen last week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Area radars show a MCV moving north through the area this evening,
but remaining east of the terminals, for a lull in convection
overnight. However, forecast soundings a past observations suggest
a round of MVFR cigs Thursday morning for all terminals except
KCNM. Cigs should scatter out during the afternoon. Convective
chances should increase Thursday afternoon, mainly KMAF/KFST and,
to a lesser extent, KINK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               67  80  66  81 /  50  80  60  70
Carlsbad                 68  88  66  89 /  10  20  20  40
Dryden                   68  86  68  87 /  50  60  50  70
Fort Stockton            66  84  66  85 /  20  50  40  70
Guadalupe Pass           63  81  63  82 /  10  20  20  60
Hobbs                    65  83  64  84 /  10  30  20  60
Marfa                    57  80  56  80 /  10  60  30  70
Midland Intl Airport     67  80  66  81 /  40  70  60  70
Odessa                   67  80  66  82 /  30  60  50  70
Wink                     67  84  66  86 /  20  40  30  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for Borden-Central Brewster-
     Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Lower
     Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-
     Upton-Ward.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99