162
FXUS64 KMAF 291105
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
605 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 603 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- Rain chances begin to increase over the eastern portions of our
  region this afternoon, eventually spanning area-wide Thursday
  through Friday before tapering off through Saturday afternoon.

- Occasionally heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash
  flooding Thursday into Thursday night.

- Temperatures trend cooler through the remainder of the week,
  then begin to rebound late this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A cooler and rainier stretch of weather is ahead later this week is
fast approaching. A cold front developing in from the northeast is
visible on radar imagery as a reflectivity gust front boundary
progressing east/southeast. The cold front will clear most of the
eastern and central Permian Basin and Lea County today but stall
along the Pecos River. This will result in lower clouds and higher
dew point temperatures in the 40s and 50s F with temperatures in the
mid 70s to mid 80s F behind the cold front, and continued
temperatures in the mid 80s F to mid 90s F southwest of the cold
front. Winds will once again increase this afternoon to 15 to 25 mph
with higher gusts in the mountains, but with southeast upslope winds
behind the cold front and south/southwest winds ahead of the cold
front. Rain chances through today will remain low (20% to 30%) and
largely confined to a few showers/storms this afternoon and evening
over eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County, although SPC has
eastern parts of the area outlooked in a MRGL risk for strong to
severe storms and hail and damaging wind should any strong storms
develop is not out of the question. Fire weather conditions will
occur over the Guadalupes this afternoon, but the fire risk looks to
be shorter-lived than the last few days due to cooler temperatures
and decreased westerly downsloping winds. Lows tonight fall into
upper 40s F northern Lea County, 50s to lower 60s F behind the cold
front, and 60s F ahead of the cold front.

Cooler and stormier weather looks increasingly likely for tomorrow
afternoon into tomorrow night. The cold front begins its further
surge southwest, clearing much of the area by Thursday. However,
this will be in association with an approaching disturbance from
Baja CA providing a steady stream of moisture that maintains mostly
cloudy skies, and disturbances rippling over central parts of the
forecast area at mid to upper levels providing lift and moisture for
shower/storm formation. High-res CAMs show most of the storm
formation holding off until the end of the day, with highs rising
into the 60s and 70s northeast of the Pecos River and 80s to lower
90s F southwest of the Pecos River. SPC has outlooked the eastern
part of the area in a MRGL risk, and strong to severe storms appear
possible in high-res CAMs late evening into the overnight as 6 hr
PoPs increase from 35% to 55% for central and eastern Permian Basin
beginning afternoon and into the medium to high 55% to 70% range
northeast of the Marfa Plateau Thursday night. High-res CAMs
currently depict two main areas to watch for tomorrow for initiation
of storms: Eddy County Plains into Upper Trans Pecos and central and
eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County. However, this could
change as we get closer to the period. Rainfall totals in NBM and
ensembles continue to remain in the 0.25" to 0.50" range northeast
of the Marfa Plateau, with isolated amounts up to at least  0.75" to
1.00" and a medium 45% to 60% probability of rainfall anywhere from
0.25" to 0.75" for Lea County, Permian Basin, and Stockton Plateau
into Terrell County, and a still low to medium 35% to 55%
probability of rainfall 1.50" to 2.00" over easternmost parts of the
area, especially the northeast Permian Basin. Therefore, we are
monitoring potential for flash flooding from repeated rounds of
showers/storms Thursday night as PWATs near and above 1.00" run 2.5
to 3.0 standard deviations above normal for this time of year, in
addition to risk of hail and damaging winds in stronger storms. Lows
Thursday night fall into the 40s and 50s F as cooler air continues
to move in behind the cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Rain chances continue to increase Thursday evening and overnight as
an upper level trough translates east across the Desert Southwest,
arriving overhead by Friday. Ahead of this system, lift from
shortwave impulses aloft combines with moisture advected from the
east, encouraging scattered shower development areawide. Medium to
high (50-90%) rain chances are progged to overly the region
overnight Thursday, with the lowest (50-70%) odds southwest of the
Davis Mountains. Given an overall lack of significant CAPE (<1000
J/kg) this set up would favor showers over thunderstorms, although a
few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out. A hazard to monitor will
be the potential of occasionally heavy rainfall leading to localized
flash flooding, especially over SE New Mexico, the Permian Basin,
and the Upper and Lower Trans Pecos. Ensemble data continues to
depict PWATs anywhere between 1-1.5" over these areas through Friday
morning. Of course, actual rainfall totals will rely heavily on
rainfall timing, rates, and motion. Rain chances gradually taper
down Friday into Friday night, as the upper trough passes overhead
and better lift shifts northeastward. With a few shortwave impulses
lingering near our region Saturday may allow for isolated (10-30%)
shower activity over SE New Mexico and the higher terrain in west
Texas through the early afternoon. Rain chances largely come to an
end by Saturday evening.

Temperatures through the remainder of this week trend cooler.
Thursday night, lows generally fall into the 50s. Cloudy skies,
rainy conditions, and lower heights aloft promote highs in the 50s
in the Permian Basin and SE new Mexico Friday, with areas south
warming into the 60s (70s to 80s in our southernmost counties).
Temperatures begin to rebound Saturday, with may topping out in the
60s. Heading into a new week, temperatures continue to trend upward
as ridging builds aloft. Highs in the 70s Sunday give way to 80s on
Monday, when a lee trough develops over the Plains, then 80s and low
90s Tuesday afternoon. Long-range models hint at another storm
system reaching the West Coast by midweek. We`ll have to see what
eventual impacts this may have on us over the next several days!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

VFR conditions today apart from MVFR or lower into 15Z-18Z for
terminals on the eastern part of the Permian Basin and Stockton
Plateau this morning. Winds at terminals northeast of the Pecos
River shift from westerly to northeast by 08Z-13Z, remain more
variable for terminals over the Eddy County Plains and Upper Trans
Pecos, and increase to 15 to 20 knots for most terminals by
14Z-20Z. Winds then decrease and shift to southeasterly 00Z-03Z
east of the Upper Trans Pecos and Marfa Plateau, while remaining
south/southwest for terminals over the Eddy County Plains.
Uncertainty is present about whether MVFR or lower conditions
develop for terminals over W TX tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76  57  72  51 /   0  10  60  90
Carlsbad                 91  62  77  52 /   0  10  40  90
Dryden                   95  67  81  62 /  20  20  50  80
Fort Stockton            94  65  82  56 /  10  10  50  90
Guadalupe Pass           81  61  70  50 /   0  10  30  80
Hobbs                    84  54  72  48 /   0  10  40  90
Marfa                    87  55  82  50 /   0  10  20  70
Midland Intl Airport     84  60  75  52 /   0  10  60  90
Odessa                   84  60  75  53 /   0  10  60  90
Wink                     90  62  78  55 /   0  10  40  90

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...94