747
FXUS64 KMAF 011119
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
619 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- Hot temperatures through the work week, with low (10-30%)
  chance of isolated showers/storms, mainly for the western higher
  terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

The broad core of an upper level ridge currently overspreads the
eastern CONUS. This shift eventually places western portions of our
region under southwesterly flow aloft this afternoon, allowing for
monsoonal moisture advection. Areas west of the Pecos River have a
low (10-30%) chance of isolated showers/ storms this afternoon. The
best odds (~30%) shall focus in/near the Davis Mountains courtesy of
upslope flow. Should any storms become strong, the primary hazards
would include gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall resulting in
flash flooding. Wednesday will again see the potential of isolated
shower/storm development across similar locations. However, rain
chances Wednesday afternoon currently look slightly lower (10-20%).
Meanwhile, dry conditions are forecast elsewhere.

Despite today being the first day of climatological Fall, upper
ridging remains our primary weather maker. Thus, temperatures remain
about 5-10 degrees above normal. Highs this afternoon are expected
to climb into the upper 90s across most of the region. Those in the
higher terrain can expect highs between 85-90 degrees. Triple digit
heat will be restricted to areas near and along the river valleys
(up to 105 degrees in portions of the Big Bend). Tonight`s lows fall
to the 60s in the higher terrain, 70s for most. Temperature warm up
further Wednesday afternoon, as triple digit highs look to encompass
the northeastern Permian Basin, much of the Upper Trans Pecos and
Eddy County, and more portions of the Rio Grande valley. Heat
Advisory criteria shall be avoided.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Thursday and into Friday will remain warm as the region remains
under the influence of a ridge that will continue to slide to the
east. By the weekend, that same ridge will have weakened and
temperatures will begin to "cool off" by about 2-4 degrees areawide.
This will be the difference for most between reaching near 95F
rather than near 100F+ that has been seen the last several days.
Additionally, this will increase rain chances, mainly over the
higher terrain and Big Bend. With no synoptic scale subsistence to
suppress showers and storms, a more summer-like, monsoon pattern
returns with isolated to scattered showers and storms recurring most
afternoons. Though we are now technically in climatological fall,
there does not look to be a significant cool down in the extended
forecast.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR continues through the TAF period. TS not included with this
issuance due to low confidence of impact at terminal, but
convection looks to develop this afternoon/evening near
CNM/PEQ/FST. Otherwise, southeast winds around 10-15kts.
Occasional gusts to 20kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               99  74 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 99  73 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                   99  75 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            97  73  99  74 /  10   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           90  70  91  71 /  20  20  10   0
Hobbs                    96  71  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    90  63  91  64 /  20  10  20   0
Midland Intl Airport     97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   96  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     99  75 100  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93