117
FXUS64 KMAF 181122
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
622 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 615 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms could produce locally heavy
  rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning this afternoon. Localized
  flash flooding will be possible in the heaviest storms that
  develop.

- Rain chances persist in the forecast through Tuesday evening,
  mainly favoring the western higher terrain. Localized flash
  flooding remains of concern in the event of occasionally heavy
  rainfall.

- Warmer and drier conditions return areawide by the middle of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

A few showers have developed over southeast New Mexico and are
moving to south-southeast this morning. Until after sunrise, rain
amounts will be generally light, though a stronger shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. During the day today, highest rain
chances (40-60%) will be west of Midland/Odessa. Additional rainfall
for very isolated spots may reach between a half inch to an inch
with much less falling for most other locations. Given the last few
days, there does still remain a threat for flash flooding in areas
that have received significant rain. Cloud cover and rain will
keep temperatures below normal in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Convection gradually decreases into tonight and temperatures fall
into the upper 60s to low 70s. Sunday looks to be a repeat of
today with the main difference being the highest rain chances
shifting over the Davis Mountains and Big Bend.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

The mid level low that brought heavy rainfall to parts of Texas this
week continues a westward track through early next week, departing
from our region Tuesday into Wednesday. Rain chances remain in
the forecast over parts of the area until then. Sunday evening,
rain chances are progged to range from 10-40%, with the highest
odds overlaying the western third of the region. Isolated to
scattered showers/storms are possible near and west of the Pecos
River Monday, with the best chances favoring the higher terrain.
Rain chances taper down further over our western counties Tuesday
afternoon before drier conditions return areawide Wednesday
onward. Models suggest PWAT values between 1-2" through Tuesday
evening, indicating a potential for occasionally heavy rainfall
leading to flash flooding, especially where soils are already
saturated.

As the mid level low departs, upper level ridging gradually
takes its place, promoting a warming trend. With the exception of
80s in/near the higher terrain Monday afternoon, highs at most
locations are forecast to reach the low 90s, then warm a few
degrees further Tuesday afternoon. Ensembles indicate the upper
ridge eventually becoming centered over the southern Plains by
next weekend. Subsequently, triple digit heat returns along the
Rio Grande and Pecos River valleys Wednesday afternoon, then
envelopes more portions of the region each afternoon onward.
Overnight lows in the 60s/70s Sunday night slowly give way to lows
generally in the 70s by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

SHRA/TS will be scattered in nature over the course of the day
with highest chances occurring this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR
maintained at all terminals with southeasterly winds. Amendments
will be necessary based on radar trends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               91  70  91  70 /  20  20  30  10
Carlsbad                 95  69  94  70 /  40  20  50  40
Dryden                   94  72  94  73 /  20  10  40  10
Fort Stockton            93  70  91  70 /  50  10  70  20
Guadalupe Pass           87  65  85  66 /  50  30  60  50
Hobbs                    92  66  91  67 /  50  40  40  30
Marfa                    87  60  85  60 /  60  30  70  30
Midland Intl Airport     90  70  90  71 /  40  30  50  10
Odessa                   90  70  90  70 /  40  20  50  10
Wink                     94  70  93  70 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...93