454
FXUS64 KMAF 221036
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
536 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 533 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

- Severe storms expected to develop this afternoon/evening. Large
  hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats.

- Storm chances continue nearly every afternoon/evening this week
  for the Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. A few of these
  storms may also be strong to severe.

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

WV imagery this morning shows an upper trough moving onshore Baja,
transitioning flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
from zonal to southwest.  Closer to home, KMAF VWP shows a 40 kt LLJ
has cranked up, pumping abundant rich Gulf moisture up the Pecos
River Valley.  By 12Z, 60+F dewpoints should be in the lower Trans
Pecos.  This is forecast to advect as far as the central/northern
Permian Basin by late morning.  To the west, CAMs sharpen a weak
dryline up against the higher terrain by early afternoon.  East of
this feature, forecast soundings develop sbcapes in excess of 2500
J/kg, 0-6 km bulk shear of 35-45 kts is depicted in West Texas east
of the dryline, coupled with mid-lvl lapse rates of 7-9 C/km.  As
shortwaves move through southwest flow aloft, this should be
adequate for a few supercells this afternoon/evening, w/large hail
and damaging winds being the main threats. 0-3 KM helicities along
the dryline suggest a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.  Highs
should average near to 5 F above normal.

Tonight, a LLJ similar to the current one is forecast to redevelop,
w/CAMs suggesting convection congealing into a MCS and moving off to
the east by late evening.  The LLJ will keep mixing in play,
combining w/debris cloud to keep overnight lows a pleasant 8-10 F
above normal.

Wednesday, lather, rinse, and repeat.  The dryline will retreat up
against the higher terrain again, w/abundant boundary-layer moisture
to the east generating sbcapes in excess of 3000 J/kg, w/mid-lvl
lapse rates a bit cooler yet sufficient for severe hail, and similar
bulk shear to what`s anticipated this afternoon.  Highs will be
similar or a degree or so cooler than today`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

WV imagery this morning shows an upper trough moving onshore Baja,
transitioning flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
from zonal to southwest.  Closer to home, KMAF VWP shows a 40 kt LLJ
has cranked up, pumping abundant rich Gulf moisture up the Pecos
River Valley.  By 12Z, 60+F dewpoints should be in the lower Trans
Pecos.  This is forecast to advect as far as the central/northern
Permian Basin by late morning.  To the west, CAMs sharpen a weak
dryline up against the higher terrain by early afternoon.  East of
this feature, forecast soundings develop sbcapes in excess of 2500
J/kg, 0-6 km bulk shear of 35-45 kts is depicted in West Texas east
of the dryline, coupled with mid-lvl lapse rates of 7-9 C/km.  As
shortwaves move through southwest flow aloft, this should be
adequate for a few supercells this afternoon/evening, w/large hail
and damaging winds being the main threats. 0-3 KM helicities along
the dryline suggest a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.  Highs
should average near to 5 F above normal.

Tonight, a LLJ similar to the current one is forecast to redevelop,
w/CAMs suggesting convection congealing into a MCS and moving off to
the east by late evening.  The LLJ will keep mixing in play,
combining w/debris cloud to keep overnight lows a pleasant 8-10 F
above normal.

Wednesday, lather, rinse, and repeat.  The dryline will retreat up
against the higher terrain again, w/abundant boundary-layer moisture
to the east generating sbcapes in excess of 3000 J/kg, w/mid-lvl
lapse rates a bit cooler yet sufficient for severe hail, and similar
bulk shear to what`s anticipated this afternoon.  Highs will be
similar or a degree or so cooler than today`s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Storms move out of the area off to the east Wednesday night.
Meanwhile, a similar pattern to that of the the short term period
continues Thursday: a dryline sharpens over southeast New Mexico/the
western Permian Basin down towards the mountains/Big Bend, weak
pulses in the quasi-zonal/southwesterly flow move overhead, a low-
level jet helps feed in Gulf moisture, and isolated to widely
scattered storms develop off of the aforementioned dryline by the
afternoon/evening. A few storms will become strong to severe given
MUCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg, lapse rates of 7-9 C/km, sufficient
0-6 km shear (30-40 kts generally, up to 45 kts), and surface
dewpoints in the 50s and even 60s over the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans-Pecos. Storm chances generally range from 30-60%, with the
best chances over the Eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos.
Weak mid/upper-level ridging moves overhead Friday morning, but
this quickly moves off to the east and storm chances return Friday
night and Saturday (20-50%) as more weak pulses in the
southwesterly flow aloft encourage ascent along the dryline. Like
Thursday, a few of these storms could be strong/severe with
primary large hail/damaging wind threats.

Dryline positioning becomes a bit more questionable Sunday and
Monday. Ensembles currently depict it being farther east over the
Central/Eastern Permian Basin extending southward, which would
limit storm chances to only our easternmost counties (at best).
Nevertheless, there are also hints of a larger weather system
moving near the area by the early-to-middle part of next week,
which would once again increase storm chances. Of course, this is
still a ways out, and a lot can change regarding the projected
strength and positioning of this system (it already looks like we
may be on the far southern fringe of the best ascent). Highs and
lows remain seasonable/a touch warmer than average through this
week, though more widespread highs in the upper 80s and low 90s
look to return by the end of the weekend/beginning of next week.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field late morning/early
afternoon, w/bases ranging from ~ 4.5 kft AGL east of the dryline
to 12 kft AGL KCNM. Convection will be possible during the
afternoon and evening, mainly eastern terminals, but chances are
too low/uncertain for a mention this issuance. MVFR cigs look
likely for a few hours KMAF/KHOB near the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               85  60  81  62 /  30  40  30  40
Carlsbad                 89  56  88  57 /  10  10  10  20
Dryden                   86  63  81  65 /  40  30  40  40
Fort Stockton            89  62  86  64 /  30  20  40  30
Guadalupe Pass           81  54  80  56 /  10   0  10  10
Hobbs                    85  56  84  59 /  20  20  20  20
Marfa                    85  52  83  54 /  10   0  30  20
Midland Intl Airport     84  60  80  63 /  20  20  20  40
Odessa                   83  60  80  64 /  20  20  20  30
Wink                     89  60  87  64 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...44