412
FXUS64 KMAF 231710
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1110 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1109 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

- Fire danger will be elevated across areas west of the Pecos
  River today given very low relative humidity values below 10
  percent and breezy westerly winds.

- Much warmer temperatures return today through the upcoming
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 309 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

A mid-level shortwave trough will continue to advance to the east of
our forecast area early this morning. There is still a very low (10-
20% chance) potential of patchy fog development across the far
southeastern Permian Basin and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos
region (including locations near Big Lake, Iraan, and Sheffield)
early this morning. A secondary shortwave trough within the
northwesterly flow aloft will clip across eastern/southeastern New
Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. A surface lee
trough will take shape across southeast New Mexico and and southwest
Texas by this afternoon, leading to much warmer temperatures over
our area. Highs this afternoon are forecast to warm into the 70s
over most of our CWA, except upper 60s in the far northern reaches
of the area and in the higher terrain. Very low dewpoints in the
single digits and teens will result in minimum humidity values below
10 percent over areas west of the Pecos this afternoon. Breezy
westerly to  northwesterly winds will develop by this afternoon
along the back side of the trough axis, particularly in the higher
terrain areas of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and portions of
the Van Horn corridor/Marfa Plateau. Fire danger will be elevated
over these areas. Winds will diminish after sunset. Skies will be
clear tonight with lows forecast to range inn the 30s and 40s over
our region.

Mid-level ridging will gradually take shape over our forecast area
on Monday. A surface trough will continue to extend from eastern New
Mexico through west and southwest Texas Monday afternoon. Low level
thermal ridging along this feature will continue to strengthen and
temperatures will continue to trend warmer across our forecast area.
High temperatures are forecast to range in the upper 70s to mid 80s
over most of our area. A very dry airmass will remain in place with
sunny skies and very low relative humidity expected across our
region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 309 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Near to slightly above normal low temperatures Tuesday morning start
off the long-term period. Lows will generally be in the 40s with
some areas along the Presidio and Rio Grande valleys reaching the
lower 50s. This is due to mid-level ridging building in from the
west, accompanied with downslope northwesterly to westerly flow
aloft, coinciding with a low-level thermal ridge, creating dry
conditions and warmer than normal temperatures on Tuesday. High
temperatures look to reach the upper 70s to 80s regionwide, with a
couple of locations along the Rio Grande reaching in the mid 90s.
There is medium (40-50%) confidence in temperatures exceeding 83
degrees at Midland Intl. This would put Midland Intl at near record
territory with the previous record high being 86 degrees set back in
2009. A warmer Tuesday night/Wednesday morning is anticipated with
lows reaching the 40s and mid 50s.

A brief cooling trend is forecasted both Wednesday and Thursday.
Ensemble and deterministic guidance is in agreement with a mid-level
subtle shortwave trough swinging across the southern Great Plains
Wednesday morning. This will allow a cold front to sweep into the
region, supplying these cooler temperatures. High temperatures on
Wednesday are expected to remain near to slightly above normal as
the cold air lags behind the front. Breezy northeasterly winds are
also anticipated as the front passes through. Guidance has depicted
gap winds in Guadalupe Pass Wednesday afternoon into Thursday
morning. There is some spread in guidance of how high these winds
may get, though models are in agreement with a northeasterly wind
which typically influences higher winds at Guadalupe Pass.
Temperatures decrease to slightly below normal (low temperatures low
30s to mid 40s, with highs in the 60s) Wednesday night through
Thursday as a surface high pressure from the Rockies builds into the
region.

A more prevalent shortwave trough will swing through the southern
Great Plains region once again Thursday morning, supplying some lift
for high to mid-level cloud development. The aforementioned high
pressure will mitigate any low-level moisture in the area, thus no
precipitation is expected Thursday night. As the surface high
pressure begins to move out of the region, temperatures climb back
above normal for this time of year beginning on Friday. A rinse and
repeat pattern of another mid-level ridge builds in from the west,
producing dry and warm weather through the rest of the forecast
period.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

VFR continues through the period. Gusty northwest winds at KHOB
will diminish around sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for portions of
the higher terrain and some areas west of the Trans Pecos through
early this evening. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected
to persist through Wednesday, especially for areas west of the
Pecos. Critically low minRH values (as low as 5-6% in some spots)
are expected across much of the region today through Tuesday,
while 20ft winds remain under critical criteria. ERCs also remain
mainly low, though some areas across the Davis Mountains will be
above the 75th percentile. Poor overnight recoveries are
anticipated for areas west of the Pecos, while good recoveries
elsewhere during this timeframe.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  36  82  41 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 74  36  82  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   77  42  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            76  43  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           66  44  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    70  37  80  42 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    71  33  80  42 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     73  37  82  42 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   73  39  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     75  34  84  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...29