423
FXUS64 KMAF 311122
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
622 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- A cold front Saturday brings slightly cooler temperatures over
  the weekend.

- The cold front this weekend brings rain chances to the area late
  Friday night into Saturday morning (mainly for northernmost
  counties), then again Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Triple digit heat arrives for many Monday and Tuesday before a
  slight cool-down mid-to-late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Hot temperatures continue today across west Texas and southeast New
Mexico thanks to the upper-level ridge centered over the Desert
Southwest. Highs once again largely top out near or above the
century mark. A Heat Advisory remains in the effect this afternoon
for the Davis Mountains, Guadalupe Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and the
Eddy County Plains. However, a shortwave is making its way across
the northern and central Plains this morning. This shortwave will
start to dive southeastward later today. In doing so, it allows a
front to push southward across our area Saturday. This front will do
two things for us. First of all, it will help cool temperatures down
closer to seasonal norms Saturday. Highs generally top out in the
low-to-mid 90s across the area. The second thing it will do is usher
in low-to-medium rain chances for many locations. Initial chances
(30-50%) look to be late Friday night and early Saturday morning as
a cluster of showers and storms out ahead of the front moves into
our northernmost counties, decaying as they move southward. Some
guidance indicates additional scattered development is also possible
Saturday afternoon and evening for portions of southeast New Mexico,
the Permian Basin, and the Trans-Pecos (more on that in the Long
Term). In any case, the front will provide at least a brief respite
from the widespread 100 degree temperatures we have been seeing for
the past several days.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The beginning of the Long Term forecast remains on track for
increased shower/storm chances and cooler temperatures thanks to an
anticipated cold front. Increased lift and moisture ahead of the
cold front bring low to medium (10-40%) shower/storm chances across
southeast New Mexico, the northwest Permian Basin, and Upper/Lower
Trans-Pecos Saturday night. At this time, the best chances of
convection look to be over southeast New Mexico. Lower heights
behind the cold front yield highs in the 90s for most on Sunday,
with the hottest locations along the Rio Grande where readings are
expected to reach or exceed the century mark.

The upper-level ridge begins to build into our region by early next
week, allowing for afternoon highs to climb back into the lower
triple digits for many. These locations include much of the Permian
Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the Trans Pecos. The hottest areas
continue to be for those along the Rio Grande, especially in low-
lying spots of the Big Bend. By mid-to-late next week, long-range
model guidance depict the upper-level ridge breaking apart as a
trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. Lower heights associated
with this pattern suggests that another slight cool-down will be in
store, with highs mainly in the upper 90s. Overnight lows continue
to be expected across most locations each night, with 60s in/near
the higher terrain.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Winds remain southeasterly and generally
light through much of today. Winds turn northeasterly to northerly
tonight/early Saturday morning as a front nears the area. Some
showers and storms are expected to move into the area from the north
overnight, but have held off on including PROB30s for -TSRA for any
terminals at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              103  75  97  71 /   0  20  20  10
Carlsbad                105  75  97  71 /   0  20  20  30
Dryden                  102  75 100  74 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton           102  75  96  71 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           98  72  89  67 /   0  20  20  20
Hobbs                   103  71  94  68 /  10  30  40  20
Marfa                    99  66  91  64 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport    101  75  96  71 /   0  20  30  10
Odessa                  101  75  95  71 /   0  20  40  10
Wink                    103  75  97  71 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
     MDT/ this evening for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

NM...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
     for Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...13