


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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058 FXUS64 KMAF 041036 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 536 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 518 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - Above normal temperatures and dry weather conditions continue across the region through early next week. - Slightly cooler temperatures and low (10-40%) rain chances briefly return by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Expect another hot weekend, even by our standards. Mid level ridging breaks down as a strong trough lifts onto the Plains. While this will lower heights across the area, it will do little to bring cooler temperatures or a chance for rain. High temperatures will still reach into the upper 80s to low 90s for most locations. The most noticeable change will be an increase in southerly winds in response to leeside troughing. Winds will gust to around 25 mph this afternoon before diminishing around sunset. Sunday looks very similar with continued dry conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 The Long Term remains relatively unchanged. Winds become more southeasterly Monday and Tuesday, which will help filter more moisture into our area. Meanwhile, temperatures decrease a couple of degrees relative to weekend temperatures, but nevertheless remain 5- 8 degrees above normal (a high of 82 degrees is typical at MAF during this time period). Increasing moisture, vorticity maxima in the flow aloft on the periphery of ridging to the east, and a weak wind shift/diffuse front allow for rain chances to return to the region Tuesday evening into Wednesday. The best chances (20-40%) currently look to be over Southeast New Mexico and northwestern parts of the Permian Basin of West Texas. Lower chances (10-20%) can be expected for the remainder of the Permian Basin into the Davis Mountains. The weak front will keep temperatures closer to (but still just above) seasonal averages Wednesday. This cool off looks to be short-lived, however, as guidance indicates temperatures will begin to increase yet again by the end of the week as upper-level high pressure begins to build back overhead. Sprang && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Gusty south winds will develop late morning before diminishing around sunset with VFR prevailing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 89 64 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 89 62 92 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 90 64 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 89 64 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 80 61 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 86 61 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 81 53 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 88 65 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 87 65 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 89 63 91 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...29