468
FXUS64 KMAF 262300
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
500 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 459 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

 - A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe and Delaware
   Mountains from early Wednesday morning into early that evening.
   You will have a difficult time driving through Guadalupe Pass.

 - Some portions of the central and eastern Permian Basin will see
   their first freeze on Friday morning. Freeze Watch will likely
   be issued for these areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 153 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

A system crosses just north of the area tonight and into tomorrow.
Strong winds above the surface translate to breezy conditions across
much of West Texas and southeast New Mexico. With this in mind, have
upgraded to a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains starting early Wednesday morning and continuing through
early that evening. Lows tonight end up in the 40s to low 50s for
most as southerly flow continues. Highs on Wednesday move up 10-15
degrees over today, in the 70s to low 80s, as warm air pools ahead
of an incoming cold front. The cold front makes it to the area
around 6pm Wednesday evening and pushes southward through the rest
of the night. Thursday morning`s lows take a tumble into the 40s for
many with mid to upper 30s across the northern Permian Basin. No
rain is expected during the short term.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 153 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

After Wednesday`s cold front has swept through the region, an
area of high pressure settles in right behind, allowing more cold
air to filter in from the north. That being said, I`m sure many of
us will be thankful for a chilly Thanksgiving! Thursday morning
lows start off in the mid to upper 30s and 40s, with afternoon
highs in the 50s for most of us, while our southern counties warm
into the 60s. The real chill will be felt the morning of Black
Friday, as those in parts of the Permian Basin and southeastern
New Mexico wake up to lows in the upper 20s, with 30s for nearly
everyone else. Freeze Watches are likely in the near future and a
jacket may be a good idea to keep handy for any morning shopping
plans. By the afternoon, highs range in the 50s, with some low
60s along the Rio Grande.

Temperatures rebound slightly on Saturday, with morning lows in
the 30s and 40s and afternoon highs in the 60s. However, the warm
up is brief as another cold front drops on in Sunday morning.
Highs both Sunday and Monday top off in the 50s and 60s. Just like
the short term, the the long term period remains dry.

-Lopez

 &&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period. Southerly to
southeasterly winds shift southwesterly beginning this evening.
Medium (40-50%) confidence of low-level wind shear of 40 kts at
1800-2000 feet occurring at CNM and HOB starting around midnight.
Lower confidence of low-level wind shear for sites east (MAF, PEQ,
and INK). Occasional wind gusts up to 25-30 kts are expected to
occur late tomorrow morning at CNM, HOB, and MAF sites.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 459 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

VFR will prevail through the period. Gusty west winds are expected
Wednesday afternoon, especially at KCNM. Winds here are likely to
gust over 30 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               48  82  40  51 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 56  79  41  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   47  83  48  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            56  85  44  56 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           52  69  39  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    49  78  37  50 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    47  77  41  57 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     49  80  41  52 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   51  79  41  52 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     49  81  42  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ to 9 PM CST /8 PM
     MST/ Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...29