731
FXUS64 KMAF 072103
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
403 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 402 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

- Very hot temperatures between 10 to 15 degrees above normal are
  expected this weekend. Heat Advisories are in effect for
  Brewster and Terrell Counties this afternoon.

- There is a low (20-40%) chance of thunderstorms in the Davis
  Mountains and Eastern Permian Basin this weekend. A few of these
  thunderstorms could be strong to severe with a risk of large
  hail and damaging winds.

- Cooler and rainy pattern with a chance of strong to severe
  storms and near to below average temperatures early to middle
  next week, then a warming and drying trend with temperatures
  back to a few degrees above average.

- Main risks in strong to severe storms early to middle part of
  next week are damaging winds and hail, although a tornado or two
  cannot be ruled out. Highest rainfall amounts expected where
  heaviest and most persistent storms occur, such as eastern
  Permian Basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge centered over
southern Chihuahua/northern Coahuila, resulting in zonal flow
aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This feature, as
well as abundant insolation, is increasing thicknesses, sending
temperatures soaring to the triple digits over most of the area
before the afternoon is out. Wrt convection, CAMs are a lot less
enthusiastic this afternoon/evening than the past few days,
developing scattered thunderstorms along a weak dryline from the
Big Bend to the Western Low Rolling Plains, and along a weak
boundary trying to push in from the northeast. KMAF 12Z RAOB
depicts a continuing severe threat, w/steep mid-lvl lapse rates
and DCAPES in excess of 1500 J/kg, and a hodograph suggesting
splitting cells w/dominant right-movers. CAMs show bulk shear
along the dryline and front sufficient for supercells.

This activity should die out fairly quickly this evening, despite
a 35+kt LLJ on tap to develop. Unfortunately, this LLJ will keep
mixing in play, in tandem w/debris cloud, to retard radiational
cooling and keep overnight minimums 8-10 F above normal.

Sunday, the ridge strengthens/amplifies slightly and shifts a bit
west, adding maybe a degree to afternoon highs and yielding the
warmest day this forecast as highs top out a respectable 10-12 F
above normal. That said, heat advisories will be issued for
mountainous areas, parts of the Rio Grande Valley, and central
Permian Basin. Convection is once again expected along a weak
dryline, mainly south of I-10. To the north, CAMs develop a
monster MCS in the Texas Panhandle and move in southeast, possibly
clipping the northeastern zones Sunday evening as it pushes a
cold front into the area. Plenty of deep-layer shear, especially
northeast, mid-lvl lapse rates around 9 C/km, and inverted-V
soundings suggest a continuing large hail/damaging wind threat,
with a tornado or two possible northeast as the boundary moves in.

This activity should diminish during the evening as the MCS
continues east, and w/loss of diurnal heating south of I-10.  As
cooler air filters in from the northeast, overnight lows should come

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

WPC Surface Analysis depicts an east-west oriented quasi-
stationary front over the TX panhandle picking up speed and moving
south as a cold front through west into central and east TX
Monday into Monday night, while deterministic and ensemble models
both depict a reinforcing troughing pattern from the mid to upper
troposphere extending from the Upper MS Valley and northern Great
Lakes into the Central Great Plains and down into W TX. Ensemble
NAEFS Mean Geopotential Height charts also depict near zero to
negative standardized anomalies in geopotential heights through
Wednesday, providing evidence of the persistent troughing pattern
through the middle part of next week. Closer to the surface,
south/southeast winds from this weekend will shift to easterly.
This humid upslope flow will maintain dew point temperatures in
the 60s, 50s western higher terrain and assist in advecting in
moisture from farther east to keep cloud and rain chances in the
forecast. The southward moving cold front, a surface low
meandering over E NM into western higher terrain of W TX, and a
dryline extending meridionally south from that surface low will
all provide near surface forcing for ascent for development of
showers/storms. Ensembles show mean surface to mid tropospheric
shear of 35 to 45 knots, sufficient for organization of rotating
updrafts that can sustain long-lived storms capable of producing
severe weather. SPC has highlighted the forecast area in a MRGL
risk for Monday. In this outlook, heating of elevated terrain,
proximity to an MCS over the Southern High Plains driving the cold
front farther south than it would otherwise travel, and elevated
convection within low-level warm theta-E advection north of the
front are all mentioned as factors allowing for a mainly severe
hail/damaging wind risk to develop through the day, with Day 3
probabilities of 5% within 25 miles of a point in the hatched
probability region. Forecast soundings depict near adiabatic lapse
rates from the lower to mid troposphere, elongated straight
hodographs, PWAT less than 1.20" and low-level and mid-level RH
below 70%, as well as mean CAPE 800-1300 J/kg. Concurrently,
ensemble forecast soundings indicate LCLs remaining above 2000
meters and 0-3 km SRH only near the low end of the 80 m2/s2
threshold for tornadogenesis while 0-1 km SRH remains well below
that, so the tornado risk while not zero is not expected to be the
main impact with storms Monday. Highs Monday with CAA behind the
cold front will end up near average and be up to 10 degrees cooler
than Sunday, with highs ranging from 80s most of Lea County into
northern Permian Basin as well as higher elevations from western
Eddy County into Guadalupes, Davis Mountains, and Lower Trans
Pecos, 90s most of Eddy County and central and southern Permian
Basin into Stockton Plateau, Marfa Plateau, and basins of
Culberson County, and upper 90s to triple digits for Rio Grande
basins into Terrell County. High-res CAMs depict discrete storms
over Rio Grande basins moving south into northern Mexico through
the evening Monday before more storms initiate across the Permian
Basin into SE NM and move east. PoPs through Monday night are
above 20% across the forecast area, with highest PoPs 45% to 60%
over northeast Permian Basin and gradient of 25% to 45% along the
Davis Mountains into Lower Trans Pecos (farther southwest than
previous runs showing gradient around Pecos River), so rain
chances are expected to persist through Monday night. Despite
abundant cloud cover limiting radiational cooling, lows Monday
night may fall near to a few degrees below average as CAA and
lower high temperatures allow low temperatures to fall lower than
previous nights, with upper 50s northern Lea County and highest
elevations of Guadalupes and Davis Mountains, 60s, upper 60s to
mid 70s southern Rio Grande basins into Terrell County and eastern
Stockton Plateau into southeast Permian Basin.

Tuesday, the cooler weather and rain/storm chances persist in CAA
behind the southward moving cold front. As on Monday, the same
near surface frontal forcing mechanisms, heating of elevated
terrain, and adequate wind shear for organization of rotating
updrafts will be present. Mean wind shear in ensembles will be
lower by 10 knots while PWAT above 1.20", low-level RH above 50%,
and CAPE 1000-1500 J/kg will mean larger amounts of instability
and moisture for storms rooted in the surface boundary layer to
tap into. LCLs in ensemble forecast soundings are also lower and
below 2000 meters while 0-3 km SRH remains marginal while
elongated hodographs persist, so damaging wind and tornado risk
may persist or increase in storms that form in the late afternoon.
PoPs indicate greatest chance of storm initiation is over Davis
Mountains and then E NM into central Permian Basin through the
evening into overnight. Earlier runs showed PoPs ending early, but
more recent runs are showing PoPs lingering into Wednesday
morning. Highs Tuesday as a result of the cold front having mostly
cleared the area will be 5 degrees below average, translating to
upper 70s to lower 80s northern Lea County, higher elevations of
Guadalupes, mid to upper 80s Permian Basin and most of SE NM
plains into Marfa Plateau, upper 80s to lower 90s basins of
Culberson County, Upper Trans Pecos into Stockton Plateau, mid to
upper 90s Terrell County into Rio Grande basins, and triple digits
along the Rio Grande. With these cooler high temperatures, lows
will also be able to fall to lower levels and near to below
average with 60s, upper 60s to lower 70s along Rio Grande, and
upper 50s in usual cooler spots of northern Lea County and higher
elevations.

Wednesday, similar story but even cooler as rain/storm chances
continue. Even weaker wind shear will hinder organization and
maintenance of storms, with highest PoPs closer to the earlier
hours of the day into early afternoon and highest over Davis
Mountains into eastern Permian Basin before quickly trailing off
to the east by evening. A risk of severe weather cannot be ruled
out, but at this time uncertainty in impacts remains high.
Wednesday is likely to be the day with high temperatures farthest
below average in the long term, 5 to 10 degrees below average
translating to 80s, upper 70s to lower 80s northern Lea County and
northernmost Permian Basin as well as higher elevations into
Marfa Plateau, and 90s basins of Culberson County as well as
southernmost Rio Grande basins and along Rio Grande from Presidio
Valley into Big Bend. Wednesday night, lows fall to similar levels
as Tuesday night.

The later part of the week features a warming and drying trend.
This occurs as ridging builds from W TX into the Upper MS Valley.
Highs in the upper 80s to mid 80s, triple digits along Rio Grande
return by Thursday, and widespread 90s, triple digits over Upper
Trans Pecos and along Rio Grande by Friday, with these high
temperatures maintained into next Saturday. Lows likewise return
to above average featuring mid 60s to mid 70s, lower 60s cooler
spots of northern Lea County and Marfa Plateau. As conditions dry
out, NBM shows rain totals from early to middle part of this week
ranging from 0.75" Lea County into Upper Trans Pecos and Stockton
Plateau, to 0.75" to 1.25" central Permian Basin and southeast
Permian Basin, and 1.50" to 1.75" or higher for points east. Given
tendency of NBM to overpredict rainfall amounts a few days prior
to a rain event, consulting lower ensemble percentiles can show
more realistic expected rainfall. These percentiles only show a
few tenths of rainfall at most, but with spreads of 0.5" to 1.0"
showing the scattered convective nature of the precipitation and
highest spreads over easternmost Permian Basin of 1.0" to 1.25"
showing potential for much higher rainfall amounts where
persistent and/or especially heavy downpours occur.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Winds will be
light/variable until Sunday afternoon, when return flow
increases. A few cu, mostly high-based, will be possible most
terminals Sunday. Little convection is anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73 103  68  88 /  10  10  10  20
Carlsbad                 67 103  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                   76 103  76 101 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            75 103  72  97 /  10  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           70  97  67  87 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                    67 101  63  84 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                    66  97  66  93 /  10  20  20  20
Midland Intl Airport     75 104  69  90 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                   74 102  69  90 /   0  10  10  10
Wink                     72 105  71  93 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
     Sunday for Andrews-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-
     Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Ector-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Lower Brewster County-
     Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Winkler.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster-
     Chisos Basin-Lower Brewster County-Terrell.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...44