394
FXUS64 KMAF 181104
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
604 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Rain chances increase this morning over far W TX into SE NM as a
weak disturbance and increased low-level moisture help generate a
few showers and storms across SE NM plains into the northern Permian
Basin. SPC has the CWA only in a general outlook, with a marginal
risk of stronger storms farther to the northwest over SE NM. While
strong to severe storms are unlikely, we cannot rule out some strong
to severe storms, especially over the SE NM plains. With the
increased cloud cover and rain chances, highs today will remain near
to below average for this time of year, with 70s and 80s west and
southwest of the Pecos River and upper 60s to mid 70s over much of
the Permian Basin, where lower clouds are likely to stick around
through much of the day and limit solar heating. Predominately
southeast winds, gusty at times, are likely for most of the area
today into tonight. Following the disturbance helping to initiate
showers and storms today will be a long wave trough approaching the
CWA Friday night. Deterministic and ensemble cluster models all
show this long wave trough closing off into an upper low and
meandering over NM before again opening into a long wave and moving
off to the northeast. Persistent cloud cover limiting radiational
cooling keeps lows overnight around 15 degrees warmer than average,
with 60s, 50s northern parts of Permian Basin into northern and
western SE NM plains, and down into Culberson County and the Marfa
Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos, with some 40s possible over the
Davis Mountains. Tomorrow, continued rain chances, mainly over the
northwest Permian Basin and SE NM plains into the Upper Trans
Pecos, keeps temperatures similar to today, perhaps a few degrees
cooler than today for northernmost areas where rain chances will be
higher than today. With highest chances of showers and storms over
northern SE NM plains, it is possible highs will not rise above the
upper 60s in these regions.

Rain totals through tomorrow on DESI indicate a few tenths of an
inch accumulation over SE NM plains, with spreads showing 25th
percentiles anywhere from a tenth or so of an inch at the 25th
percentile and close to half to or a bit more than half an inch for
the 75th percentile.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

The long term starts out cold, then warms a little into next week,
with respectable chances of rain over the weekend, especially north.

Saturday evening, the upper trough is forecast to be nearly
stationary just southwest of the Four Corners.  Closer to
home,convection is expected to be ongoing over Southeast New Mexico
and adjacent parts of West Texas.  Deep-layer shear of 40-60 kts is
anticipated over Southeast New Mexico, with mid-level lapse rates on
7C/km or better running through the Sacramento Foothills and
Guadalupes.  Needless to say, severe activity is expected to be
ongoing at the start of the evening.  To exacerbate things, an
incredible 55+ kt LLJ is forecast to be in play, advecting luxuriant
amounts of Gulf moisture into the region, potentially keeping storms
going into the overnight hours.

Sunday, models move the trough a little northeast to the Four
Corners, and temperatures begin a slow recovery.  Thicknesses
increase a little, adding 2-3 F on to Saturday`s highs.  Sunday will
be the coolest day in the extended, as temperatures plateau in the
afternoon within a degree or two of normal.  W/the trajectory of the
trough moving very little to the northeast, Southeast New Mexico
will still be the sweet spot for convection, but this activity will
end late Sunday night as the trough finally clears the area to the
north.

Monday, the trough opens and finally gets in gear, ejecting to the
Central Plains by 00Z Tuesday.  This will be followed by weak upper
ridging centered over the Baja Peninsula the rest of the week. This
feature will strengthen through Wednesday, increasing
thicknesses/temperatures over the region.  the warmest day this
forecast should be Wednesday, when highs top out a respectable ~ 10-
12 F above normal.  A trough approaching the west coast begins
beating down the ridge Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Southeast winds, gusty at times, persist at terminals throughout
period. Showers and storms possible at terminals in SE NM plains
and northern Permian Basin, but left out mention due to uncertain
coverage. VFR VIS everywhere except MVFR or lower in any heavier
showers/storms. VFR CIGs expected at PEQ throughout period, with
MVFR at CNM and MVFR to IFR across most of Lea County into Upper
Trans Pecos, Permian Basin, and Stockton Plateau in lower stratus.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  62  75  61 /  10  20  10  10
Carlsbad                 79  59  77  60 /  20  30  50  60
Dryden                   76  63  77  63 /  10  20  10  20
Fort Stockton            78  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           73  56  72  55 /  10  20  30  60
Hobbs                    72  59  70  58 /  20  30  50  50
Marfa                    75  54  76  56 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     70  63  73  62 /  10  20  10  20
Odessa                   72  64  73  63 /  10  20  10  20
Wink                     79  63  77  63 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...94