163
FXUS64 KMAF 260529
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1229 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

- Shower/thunderstorm chances continue today and tomorrow. Best
  chances (30-40%) are in the Davis Mountains, with 10-25% chances
  elsewhere. Localized flash flooding, gusty winds, and frequent
  lightning are the main concerns.

- Storm chances will mainly become confined over areas west of the
  Pecos and in the higher terrain this weekend into early next
  week. Temperatures will average near to slightly above normal
  through the extended forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Mesoscale analysis depicts a surface trough sitting over the
Permian Basin, as well as subtle troughing aloft. The MAF 12Z
sounding came in with a precipitable water value of 1.43 inches,
which is just below the 90th percentile. The aforementioned
sources of weak lift (plus upslope flow and locations achieving
convective temperature) coupled with ample moisture is expected to
once again lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon. As in previous days, development should begin in
the higher terrain, particularly the Davis Mountains, where rain
chances are best (30- 40%). Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will then continue to develop into the Trans-Pecos
and Permian Basin through the rest of the afternoon and evening,
due in part to outflow from previous convection (10-25% chances in
these locations). Localized flash flooding, gusty winds, and
frequent lightning remain the biggest concerns, and severe weather
is not anticipated. Temperatures top out at or near the century
mark today for most, though highs will be a touch cooler than
forecasted earlier this week due to the abundance of moisture and
light northerly winds associated with the surface trough.

Convection is expected to last into tonight before dissipating. Lows
across the area will be near normal, dipping down into the upper 60s
and low 70s generally. Ridging from the Southeastern CONUS continues
to build this direction tomorrow, which will help maintain highs
similar to today`s (lows will also be similar). As for shower/storm
chances, right now the NBM is less than excited about probabilities
outside of the Davis Mountains (10-30%). That being said,
precipitable water is forecast to remain in the 75-90th percentile,
ridging will still be fairly weak overall, and an inverted trough
will be making its way this direction by tomorrow afternoon/evening.
This being the case (and since some CAMs, including the HRRR, hint
at isolated to scattered coverage in Southeast New Mexico and the
western Permian Basin), rain chances were increased a bit tomorrow
afternoon and evening as well for much of the rest of the area (10-
20%).

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

The long term forecast remains on track with an upper level ridge
slated to broaden late this weekend and maneuver over the Southern
Great Plains during the early part of next week. Rain chances remain
about the same as they have been for the higher terrain to the west
at about 30-50% and a bit lower (10-20%) across the adjacent plains
and Permian Basin. Some moisture is shoved to the west and PWATs
fall drastically for Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances should be
lowest during this time for the region. Long range guidance shows
moisture returning to above climatological norms once again by the
end of the coming week. The aforementioned ridge will still be a
fixture, but remain weak with undercutting shortwaves. Thus, some
ascent will still be present in combination with the increase in
moisture. NBM has a hint of rain near the end of the long term with
just broad 10-20% PoPs for the CWA. Will keep this as is with this
forecast package, but if a similar pattern to the one we have seen
recently does return late in the week, PoPs may need to be
increased.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals. Southeasterly winds
generally under 10kts are forecast throughout the period. However,
winds may become a little breezy Saturday afternoon. There is a
slight chance of isolated showers and storms (~10%) Saturday
afternoon through early evening but have left out of TAFs due to low
coverage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               98  75  93  73 /  10  10  10   0
Carlsbad                 98  73  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
Dryden                   98  74  93  74 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            98  73  92  72 /  20  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           90  69  87  67 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                    96  71  92  70 /  20  10  10   0
Marfa                    89  63  87  63 /  50  20  30  10
Midland Intl Airport     98  74  93  73 /  10  10  10   0
Odessa                   96  74  91  73 /  10  10  10   0
Wink                     98  73  93  73 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...55