286
FXUS64 KMAF 272045
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

- Breezy winds Friday, especially in the Permian Basin of West
  Texas and Lower Trans-Pecos. Low (10-30%) rain chances for these
  same areas.

- A strong cold front will intrude upon West Texas and Southeast
  New Mexico beginning late Saturday afternoon, bringing the first
  freeze to some locations, mainly the central Permian Basin.

- An upper-level storm system arrives Monday, possibly bringing
  high winds to the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Despite a cold start to the morning, the rest of Thanksgiving looks
mild and quiet overall! Highs today rebound back into the mid-to-
upper 60s across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico with upper-
level ridging moving overhead. Lows tonight will be warmer than this
morning`s as southeast winds bring more moisture into the region.
Temperatures bottom out in the mid-to-upper 40s for most, with upper
30s in the higher terrain and far northern Permian Basin.
Southeasterly winds strengthen Friday as a low pressure system
develops in the lee of the Rockies ahead of an incoming shortwave
trough aloft. The strongest winds (and strongest moisture advection)
will be over the Permian Basin of West Texas and Lower Trans-Pecos
(winds currently reside just below Wind Advisory criteria). A
stratus deck will also set up over these areas due to the enhanced
low-level moisture. Convective-allowing models have backed off of
rain chances tomorrow, but low (10-30%) PoPs have been maintained,
with the best chances being found in the Lower Trans-Pecos. In any
case, whatever rain does occur will be fairly light and mainly
stratiform - therefore very little rainfall is expected. Highs top
out in the 60s and low 70s for western portions of the area, while
the stratus layer keeps the eastern half of the area in the upper
50s and low 60s. Enhanced moisture keeps lows Saturday morning in
the 40s and (in the eastern Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos) low 50s.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Saturday, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico will be under
northwest flow aloft as an upper trough arrives.  At the surface,
return flow in the east is forecast to increase Gulf moisture to
saturation, for a few hours of fog in the morning, before surface
winds veer to west and scour out the boundary layer in advance of a
cold front.  This westerly shift will also add a downslope warming
to afternoon highs, in addition to compressional warming in advance
of the front.  Highs Saturday afternoon will be the warmest this
forecast as temperatures top out ~ 8-10 F above climatology.

Unfortunately, the aforementioned front arrives around sundown
Saturday, w/the latest NAM buffer soundings pegging fropa at KMAF at
around 23Z.  The front looks strong enough for high gap winds
through KGDP after midnight.  Despite increasing cloud cover and
winds, CAA looks strong enough behind the front to bring the first
freeze to the central Permian Basin.  Models have strengthened the
front over the past 24 hours, and highs Sunday now look to average
over 15 F below normal, the coldest day so far this fall.

Fortunately, surface winds quickly veer back to return flow Sunday
night in response to leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead of a
secondary trough passing through the Four Corners.  The trough
arrives Monday, veering surface winds to the west.  This will result
in a respectable rebound Monday, adding over 10 F to afternoon
highs.  High winds still look to develop in the
Guadalupes/Delawares.  The wintry precipitation that was flirting
w/our far northern zones 24 hours ago now looks to stay north of the
area, for a dry trough passage.

The temperature recovery continues Tuesday/Wednesday between
systems, with highs Wednesday afternoon coming in about 5 F warmer
than where they should be for this time of year.  A cold front
Wednesday night/Thursday will take highs Thursday afternoon back
down to around normal to round out the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions prevail this afternoon and tonight as southeasterly
winds remain generally light (6-10 kts). By early tomorrow morning
(beginning between 10-12Z, according to current guidance), a stratus
deck is expected to move in from the southeast. Confidence was high
enough to include MVFR CIGs at all terminals except PEQ (at least
for now) and CNM. Deterioration to IFR conditions at MAF, HOB, and
INK in particular is also possible later in the morning. Otherwise,
southeasterly winds tomorrow become gusty, particularly at MAF and
FST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               46  62  52  72 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 41  72  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   50  65  51  78 /   0  30   0   0
Fort Stockton            49  72  50  75 /  10  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           43  64  45  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    40  66  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    37  67  38  69 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     46  62  50  72 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                   47  62  50  72 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                     46  69  44  72 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...13