628
FXUS64 KMAF 051957
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
157 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 153 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

- Warmer today with gusty downsloping winds over the Guadalupes.
  Continued warm and breezy weather on Saturday.

- A weak cold front Saturday night/Sunday followed by cooler temperatures
  Sunday and Monday, then a warming trend Tuesday into Thursday
  before another weak cold front returns temperatures closer to
  seasonable for this time of year.

- No precipitation chances throughout the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 153 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

WV imagery this afternoon show an upper level trough extending
from the Upper Midwest down to off the Baja coast, leaving West
Texas and Southeast new Mexico under zonal flow aloft. At the
surface, leeside troughing on the Front Range has induced
southwest to west winds across the area. This will add a downslope
warming component to today`s highs, although the NBM still
appears too optimistic in warming things up, and will likely
overshoot highs again. High winds are possible in the
Guadalupes/Delawares.

Tonight, the trough moves very little...slightly east at best. A
weak cold front is forecast to move through, and will combine
w/skies clearing NW-SE for overnight minimums right around
climatology.

Saturday, the trough drifts a little further east. Stronger
leeside troughing is anticipated, generating a mtn wave signature
over the Guadalupes that could result in a few hours of marginal
high winds afternoon/evening. We`ve issued a watch for this. While
minimum relativity will stay out of critical territory, these
increased winds may warrant an RFD during the afternoon. Downslope
warming under sunny skies should add ~ 5-7 F to today`s highs,
putting temperatures ~ 5-10 F above normal.

Saturday night, winds will be a bit slower to decouple, and will
combine w/slightly higher dewpoints to keep overnight lows around
5 F above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 153 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Calmer winds return to the area later this weekend. The biggest
story for late this weekend into next week will be temperatures.
Aloft, weak mid to upper ridging and accompanying large scale
sinking motion maintains near zero precipitation chances, keeping
the forecast dry. A weak cold front develops south/east through
the area Saturday night into Sunday, knocking highs down 5F to
10F, translating to lower to mid 60s F, 50s F higher elevations,
northern Lea County and northern Permian Basin, and upper 60s to
70s F Rio Grande basins into Terrell County. Northerly winds
shifting to northeasterly behind the cold front and dew point
temperatures falling into the 20F to 25F range areawide enhancing
overnight cooling allow lows to fall near to below freezing north
of the Rio Grande basins, and into the upper 30s to lower 40s F
Rio Grande basins into Terrell County and Stockton Plateau. This
may be as cold as nights get for the next week. CAA persists into
Monday, with highs lower to mid 60s F, upper 50s F higher
elevations, mid 60s F from Marfa Plateau and Stockton Plateau into
Terrell County, and upper 60s to lower 70s F from the Presidio
Valley into Big Bend. However, lows Monday night warm by a few
degrees compared to Sunday night, allowing lows to stay above
freezing over much of the northeast foothills of higher
elevations, south and east Permian Basin, and points south and
east of the Davis Mountains and basins of Culberson County. A
warming trend ensues by Tuesday with winds shifting back to
southerly and advecting in warmer air, even as dew point
temperatures remain below 30F. This translates to a return to mid
60s to mid 70s F with more widespread 70s F by Wednesday, as well
as lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s F areawide. Forecast grids
Thursday next week indicate widespread 70s F, 60s F higher
elevations, and lower 80s F for the usual warmest spots over the
Big Bend. However, another cold front is forecast to drop south
through the area by Friday, returning temperatures closer to
seasonable levels, although still a few degrees above average for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, w/decreasing high
clouds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               31  68  39  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 31  69  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   41  76  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            39  73  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           35  58  39  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    29  67  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    30  64  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     34  68  40  62 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   35  68  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     30  70  37  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99