951
FXUS64 KMAF 141713
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1113 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1112 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

- Near record highs and dry conditions are expected through the
  weekend.

- An upper-level storm system late this weekend brings cooler
  temperatures, gusty winds, and maybe a shower or two next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Not much happening in the short term, as West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico sit under a broad ridge centered on the Mexico coast
south of Brownsville.  As a result, KMAF set a new record high
yesterday, and will potentially equal or exceed records through
Sunday.  Indeed, a trough off the coast of NoCal is forecast to dig
down the coast, to SoCal by Saturday evening, nudging the ridge
east, but also increasing thicknesses under increasingly southwest
flow aloft.  Models/thickness plots suggest Saturday will be the
warmest day this forecast, as highs top out some 20 F above normal.
It almost goes w/out saying that, in the short term, grids stay
dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Sunday, the west coast trough will begin ejecting northeast,
arriving over northeast Nevada/northwest Utah by around 00Z Monday.
Thicknesses begin coming down as a weak Pac front moves through the
area.  This looks to be the beginning of a downward trend in
temperatures through the extended.  Monday, as the trough continues
ejecting into the Central Plains, leeside troughing on the Front
Range could gin up low-order high winds in the Guadalupes throughout
the day, complete w/a little BLDU.

Tuesday, a larger, secondary trough makes landfall on the west
coast, once again putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under
southwest flow aloft.  At the surface, return flow will be drawing
Gulf moisture up the Pecos River/Rio Grande Valleys, and sharpening
up a dryline mid-CWA by 06Z Wednesday.  W/a weak front to the north,
one could even say a triple point will develop invof KHOB.  As the
trough approaches West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, convection
will be possible eastern Permian Basin/Western Low Rolling Plains
after 06Z Wednesday.  This activity will develop west Wednesday and
peak Wednesday night.  The trough arrives Thursday, bringing with it
a scouring west wind that will shunt all moisture/rain chances east
by late Thursday night.  As the trough passes through, a few hours
of high winds will be possible in the Guadalupes Thursday evening.
By Thursday afternoon, highs should average w/in a degree or so of
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions prevail along with generally light winds out of the
south and southwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

With all this dry air in place, and a couple of windy events in the
mix, elevated fire wx will be possible, mainly this weekend and the
first part of next week.  Wind events lately have not been
consistent, so fire wx threats will be evaluated daily.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               57  88  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 49  86  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   52  85  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            56  90  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           55  77  53  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    49  86  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    46  83  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     56  86  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   56  86  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     50  86  52  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...95