312
FXUS64 KMAF 101944
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
144 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 138 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

- Breezy southwesterly winds expected Tuesday afternoon, keeping
  the area dry and warming temperatures back above normal.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue the rest of the week.

- An upper-level system brings cooler temperatures, gusty winds,
  and low (10-25%) rain chances this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 138 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Water vapor imagery depicts upper-level ridging building in from the
west as forecast, leaving our area under northwest flow aloft. This
coupled with southerly return flow at the surface allows for
afternoon highs to be a little warmer than yesterday`s. Tonight,
lows are still expected to be a bit chilly (particularly across
portions of the northwestern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico,
and higher terrain), with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 30s
across these regions (low 40s elsewhere).

The upper-level ridge axis moves closer to our area Tuesday and
surface winds become southwesterly. This downsloping effect keeps us
dry and above normal afternoon temperatures return. Breezy
conditions can be expected across the area on Tuesday (Permian
Basin/Lower Trans-Pecos and higher terrain) as surface high pressure
to the east and low pressure to our north creates a tight pressure
gradient. The breeziest locations appear to be across our eastern
counties (locations closest to tightest pressure gradient) and in
higher terrain. Downslope flow continues Tuesday night, leading to
lows being 3-6 degrees warmer than previous night.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 138 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Above-normal temperatures continue Wednesday despite the passage of
a very weak front (more of a wind shift than anything). Highs top
out in the upper 70s and low 80s areawide as ridging to the west
continues to move eastward. Winds once again take on a westerly
downsloping component Thursday, helping temperatures increase a few
degrees relative to Wednesday. Widespread highs in the low 80s can
therefore be expected Thursday, which would be a solid 13-16 degrees
above normal for mid-November. These very unseasonable temperatures
persist into Friday (dropping maybe a degree or two relative to
Thursday). However, some changes look to be on the way by the
weekend.

Going into the weekend, the ridge is pushed east of our region by an
incoming upper-level trough. Guidance depicts this trough diving
southeastward and moving near/across portions of Southeast New
Mexico and West Texas Saturday evening into Sunday (some differences
in system timing/speed persist). At this time, it looks like the
trough will do a few things for our area. A Pacific front associated
with the system`s passage will yield more seasonable temperatures
towards the latter half of the weekend and going into next week.
Breezy winds also look to precede/accompany the system as it makes
its way across the area. Additionally, ensembles depict increasing
low and mid-level moisture ahead of the trough, meaning low (10-25%)
rain chances creep back into the forecast Saturday into Sunday
(particularly across the Permian Basin and in the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains). The big question regarding rain chances at this
point is where exactly the trough positions itself. If it ends up
being farther north than models have been depicting, that would
result in generally lower rain chances (the latest runs of the
deterministic GFS and European models have begun to hint at this
northward displacement). This would leave most of our area, save
perhaps the farthest eastern and northern portions, dry-slotted
and breezy. Needless to say, trends will be closely monitored
throughout the week. Stay tuned for updates!

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals. Breezy southerly winds are
expected at CNM and HOB this afternoon before tapering off this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               41  76  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 38  82  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   38  75  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            45  83  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           44  69  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    36  79  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    33  74  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     41  76  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   41  76  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     38  80  41  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55