189
FXUS64 KMAF 040517
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1217 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

- A few showers and thunderstorms may develop over our eastern
  counties this afternoon into tonight. A couple of storms could
  become severe, capable of producing localized damaging wind
  gusts and large hail.

- Rain/storm chances continue through Thursday. A few strong to
  severe storms may be possible again Wednesday. Currently,
  damaging winds and large hail look to be the main concerns.

- Much warmer temperatures arrive Friday with many locations
  expected to reach the triple digits this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

A weak shortwave trough embedded within zonal flow aloft is moving
across west Texas and southeast New Mexico this afternoon. Surface
observations show a cold front pushing southward across east central
New Mexico and the Texas panhandle this afternoon. Westerly winds
and low level thermal ridging is prevalent across most of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico ahead of the front this afternoon. Slightly
drier air has advected into our region on the westerly winds this
afternoon, with surface dewpoints falling into the 40s to lower 50s
for most. The exception is along the far eastern Permian Basin,
where and lower Trans Pecos, where dewpoints remain in the 60s. Low
level convergence along the dryline is providing enhancement in
cumulus over the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos
region this afternoon. An isolated storm or two could develop late
this afternoon into this evening mainly east of a Snyder-Big Lake-
Sheffield-Sanderson line, but the probability of a thunderstorm with
measurable rain will be 20% or less over these locations through the
evening hours. The cold front will push into the Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico this evening and through most of the remainder
of the CWA late tonight. A slight chance (~20%) of storms may
develop over the southern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos along
the boundary late tonight. Instability may be sufficient for an
isolated severe storm or two if convection can develop over the
eastern /southeastern Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region this
evening/tonight, but the overall severe risk remains Marginal (level
1 of 5). Cooler lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s over the northern
Basin and southeast New Mexico behind the front tonight.

The upper-level flow pattern transitions more southwesterly across
our forecast area on Wednesday and Wednesday night in advance of a
deepening trough over the western CONUS. Surface winds transition
more easterly to southeasterly over our region on Wednesday,
allowing for increased surface moisture over areas along and east of
the mountains. The best chance (~20-40%) of storms on Wednesday in
the Lower Trans Pecos region, Davis Mountains, and Marfa Plateau.
Highs Wednesday will trend a little cooler in the 80s over much of
the area, except 90s over the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend (and up
to 101-106 along the Rio Grande). Deep layer moisture and ascent
will increase across areas especially along and north of Interstate
10/20 on Wednesday night in association with another shortwave
trough translating over these areas and a surface boundary that sets
up over these locations. We expect an increasing chance of showers
and storms over these locations Wednesday night, with the greatest
potential of storms (30-60%) chance located along and north of a Van
Horn, Midland, Colorado City line.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Warmer temperatures and more rain/storm chances kick off the long-
term period. The upper-level shortwave trough moves northeastward
across the Central Plains which will allow subtle ridging to settle
over the region. The boundary stalled over the higher terrain is
expected to move north of the region Thursday afternoon. A rinse and
repeat severe storm setup is in place over the region. Scattered to
isolated storm coverage is anticipated. Forecast soundings depict
"inverted-V" profiles, along with modest deep layer shear, signaling
a damaging wind and hail threat for the strongest storms. Downdraft
CAPE values reveal (> 1200 J/kg) high values suggesting the
potential for microbursts to occur. In addition to the storm
chances, breezy to windy conditions look favorable on Thursday
through Friday across the region due to being in the transitionary
position between a developing low pressure system and a surface high
pressure system.

The precipitation chances decrease for most locations heading into
Friday afternoon as upper-level ridging begins to take place. Long
range guidance has shortwave impulses within the upper-level ridge
supplying lift for low (15-25%) rain and general thunderstorm
chances. Higher (40-50%) rain chances remain in the Davis Mountains,
thanks to upslope flow. The upper-level ridge will also allow much
warmer high temperatures to return this weekend with widespread
temperatures reaching the mid 90s to lower triple digits. Triple
digit temperatures expand regionwide by Sunday, increasing heat risk
concerns. By early next week, temperatures slightly cool down thanks
to an upper-level trough moving into the vicinity of the forecast
area.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

KMAF appears to be showing a false CIG as of 05Z, therefore the
TAF ignores this and has VFR conditions through the period.
Othwerwise VFR conditions are expected everywhere except at FST
which could briefly drop to MVFR near 12Z, lifting around 18Z. A
cold front is shifting winds from the northeast which will come
back around from the southeast after 18Z.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               69  90  71  96 /  30  30  10  10
Carlsbad                 70  95  69  98 /  50  30  10  20
Dryden                   75  97  75  99 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Stockton            73  96  70  97 /  20  40  10  30
Guadalupe Pass           66  89  68  92 /  40  20  10  20
Hobbs                    65  88  66  93 /  50  40  10  20
Marfa                    65  91  66  93 /  20  50  30  50
Midland Intl Airport     71  91  71  96 /  30  30  10  10
Odessa                   70  90  70  94 /  30  30  10  10
Wink                     72  95  72  98 /  30  40  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...10