159
FXUS64 KMAF 081804
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1204 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1138 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

 - A Freeze Warning is in effect from 11 PM MST /midnight CST/
   this evening to 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ Saturday for the Davis
   Mountains, Van Horn and the Highway 54 Corridor, Eddy County
   Plains, and northern Lea County.

 - Dry and warmer this weekend and next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

The threat of heavy rainfall across the eastern Permian Basin has
ended as the surface cold front has moved east into the Concho
Valley and Big Country. While scattered showers and perhaps a
rumble of thunder will persist over the northeastern Basin this
morning, rainfall amounts are not expected to pose a hazard.
Having said this, watch for ponding of water on roadways and do
not drive around barricades.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

WV imagery this morning shows a positively-tilted upper trough over
southwest New Mexico, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under progressive southwest flow aloft.  Mesoanalysis shows the cold
front has cleared the CWA to the east, with light convection of
Southeast New Mexico/northern Permian Basin, but 70-100 kts of deep
layer shear ahead of the trough is keeping cells from developing any
appreciable depth.  The latest HRRR and WPC QPF suggest we could
probably drop the flood watch from our northeastern counties.
However, those areas could see an inch or more if another line
develops before the trough moves out, so we`ll leave it in effect.

Surface winds are forecast to back to westerly later this morning as
convection tapers off to the northeast.  Winds will scour the
boundary layer, bringing drier air into the area.  Despite these
downslope winds, temperatures behind the front will remain cool
today.  In fact, today looks to be the coolest day this forecast as
highs plateau below normal most locations, especially Southeast New
Mexico, where highs will stay 10-15 F below normal.

Tonight, under fairly light winds and clear skies, temperatures will
plummet, ushering in the coldest night yet this fall.  Part of Eddy
County, northern Lea, Van Horn and the Highway 54 Corridor, and
isolated areas of the Davis Mountains look to reach freezing
temperatures by sunup Saturday, and we`ve issued a Freeze Warning
for these areas.

Friday, under zonal flow aloft, thicknesses jump, and temperatures
begin recovering.  Highs during the afternoon should top out ~ 2 F
above normal. Still cool, but better than today by around 10 F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Sunday, the upper trough will continue ejecting towards the Great
Lakes region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under
pleasant southwest flow aloft.  Thicknesses will continue
increasing, adding 5 F or so to afternoon highs over Saturday`s
highs.  Veteran`s Day looks very similar to Sunday.

Tuesday, thicknesses peak, yielding the warmest temperatures of this
forecast, with highs topping out a pleasant 12-14 F above normal.

Unfortunately, a cold front arrives late Tuesday night, taking
temperatures back down Wednesday and Thursday.  Temperatures
Thursday afternoon should come in only 2-3 F above normal.

Unfortunately, with broad ridging over the southern CONUS during the
extended, chances of rain are slim-to-none, even with the cold
front. Thus, grids remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

MVFR ceilings continue for the next hour or two at HOB, along
with MAF very briefly before ceilings lift to VFR. VFR conditions
and westerly to northwesterly winds are expected to prevail at all
sites by mid to late afternoon, lasting through the period. There
is a medium to high (40-80%) chance of winds gusting 25 kts this
afternoon across all sites besides CNM. Winds calm down by sunset
and continue through early tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               63  38  71  41 /  60   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 60  33  71  36 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                   74  45  74  49 /  30   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            65  38  77  42 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           52  36  61  41 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    56  33  68  37 /  40   0   0   0
Marfa                    59  34  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     62  38  70  41 /  30   0   0   0
Odessa                   61  39  71  42 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                     62  36  74  37 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Saturday for
     Davis Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Saturday for
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...11