879
FXUS64 KMAF 232347 CCA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
545 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 533 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

 - Very warm temperatures and dry conditions continue into Sunday
   with readings averaging 10-15 degrees above normal

 - Cold front expected Monday, stronger cold front expected
   Thursday

 - Still uncertain about timing of front, extent and magnitude of
   gusty winds Thursday, as well as magnitude and duration of
   colder temperatures end of next week into next weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 202 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

No significant changes have been made to the ongoing short term
forecast. Weak mid-level ridging will build over our area through
tonight with dry zonal flow aloft becoming prevalent Sunday and
Sunday night. Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will
continue across our region through the remainder of the weekend. A
surface trough will extend from the Permian Basin to the Big Bend
region through tonight. Southerly winds may allow for an increase
in low-level moisture across the eastern/southeastern Permian
Basin and eastern portions of the Lower Trans Pecos region
overnight, where patchy low clouds or very patchy light fog could
develop overnight into early Sunday morning. Lows tonight should
generally range in the 40s to lower 50s across the region. The
surface trough/dryline should become oriented over eastern
portions of our forecast area by Sunday afternoon. Southwesterly
to westerly winds will become a bit breezy (15-25 mph with a few
higher gusts) behind this feature over the Guadalupe/Delaware
Mountains, southeastern NM, the Upper Trans Pecos, and much of the
Permian Basin late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Low-
level thermal ridging will allow for warmer temperatures in the
upper 70s to mid 80s over the region, except upper 60s to mid 70s
in the higher terrain. Dry conditions continue into Sunday night
with lows continuing to range in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 202 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Forecast remains relatively unchanged, with no measurable rain
chances indicated in the extended and even with expected frontal
passages and advection of above average and below average
temperatures. Monday, a trough passing to the north is expected to
drag a cold front south through the area. Highs range from upper
50s over northern Lea County and northeasternmost Permian Basin,
to mid to upper 60s over most of SE NM plains into Permian Basin
as well as Guadalupes into Davis Mountains, lower to mid 70s from
the Upper Trans Pecos into Stockton Plateau and northern Presidio
and Brewster Counties, and lower to mid 80s in Rio Grande basins,
ranging from near to below normal for late November over northern
Lea County and Permian Basin, to near average over the central
Permian Basin, to a few degrees to up to 10 to 15 degrees above
average everywhere else. Recent runs of the NBM have trended down
a few degrees northeast of Pecos River, so the cold front Monday
may be stronger than currently indicated. Monday night, lows will
average near to slightly above normal, ranging from lower to mid
30s to lower to mid 40s, coldest temperatures in the 20s possible
in northeasternmost Lea County and warmest temperatures around 50
possible along the Rio Grande in southwestern Presidio and
Brewster Counties. With ridging building in briefly Tuesday and
Wednesday, a warming trend will occur, with highs 5 to 10 degrees
above average in the mid to upper 60s and 70s Tuesday giving way
to highs around 15 degrees above average in the mid to upper 70s
and 80s Wednesday. A cold front will begin to move into the area
Tuesday night as another storm system moves into the central
CONUS, although timing of the front remains uncertain. Grids
currently show CAA with this front lowering temperatures over
northern regions, with lows ranging from the upper 30s over
northern Lea County and lower to mid 40s north of the Rio Grande
basins, with lower to mid 50s in the Rio Grande basins and along
the Rio Grande, around 10 degrees above average.

CAA and northerly winds behind the cold front Thursday are
currently expected to result in near to below normal highs,
ranging from mid 50s SE NM plains and most of Permian Basin, lower
to mid 60s Upper Trans Pecos, Pecos River Valley, Stockton
Plateau and north of Rio Grande basins, and upper 40s to lower 50s
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, mid 70s and above Rio Grande
basins. Some gusty winds over higher elevations of Guadalupes into
Davis Mountains are indicated for Thursday. This will have to be
monitored as we have noted in previous discussions possibility of
strong winds behind this second upper trough and cold front.
Continued CAA and northerly winds lead to lows near or below
freezing over most of Lea County and much of the northern and
central Permian Basin, with mid to upper 30s north of Rio Grande
basins, upper 30s to lower 40s in Rio Grande basins. Given that
much of the northeast and east Permian Basin have not seen their
first freeze yet this autumn, freeze warnings may be warranted
Thursday night. Winds veer to southerly Friday but highs remain
below average as upper troughing sets up over the central CONUS.
Highs ranging from the mid 50s northeast of Pecos River to lower
60s as far south of the Rio Grande basins are indicated in grids.
A warming trend will then ensue Friday into next Saturday, but
lows are only expected to be a few degrees above average at night,
and near to below average during the day. We will continue to
monitor trends in wind speeds, gusts, and temperatures to see if
anything substantial changes for next week going into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across most of the region through
Sunday afternoon. The exception could be across far southeastern
portions of the Permian Basin and far eastern portions of the Lower
Trans Pecos where low level moisture return could result in
localized IFR to LIFR ceilings early Sunday morning, particularly
around the 12Z to 16Z time frame. Low level wind shear could impact
the eastern Permian Basin overnight. Breezy westerly to
southwesterly winds will develop over area terminals late Sunday
morning into Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               51  81  49  63 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 45  79  50  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   48  80  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            53  86  55  75 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           49  68  50  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    44  77  48  63 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    44  76  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     48  82  52  66 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   49  81  53  67 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     44  83  48  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...21