887
FXUS64 KMAF 052342
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
542 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 532 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

- Elevated fire weather conditions of varying extent are possible
  each afternoon continuing today through Saturday, mainly over
  Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas.

- Brief periods of patchy fog possible tomorrow morning across
  portions of the central/eastern Permian Basin, resulting in
  visibilities reduced to less than a mile.

- More record highs in store the rest of the week as unprecedented warmth
  continues, as well as brief periods of high winds in the
  Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains tomorrow afternoon.

- A dry cold front arrives Saturday night bringing temperatures
  near to slightly below normal Sunday into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 158 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Current satellite and latest RAP analysis depicts a mid-level ridge
over central portions of the US. Temperatures tonight are expected
to be similar compared to last night with lows ranging from upper
40s to mid 50s across central/eastern Permian Basin, as well as
areas along the I-10 corridor. Cooler temperatures are forecasted in
the lower 40s to upper 30s across southeastern New Mexico and the
northwestern Permian Basin. Warmer temperatures will be confined to
areas further to the east due to higher cloud and low-level
moisture coverage. This will allow low cloud and fog development
over the eastern Permian Basin in which could reduce visibilities
to less than a mile for brief periods tomorrow morning. Near
record temperatures are in store once again tomorrow afternoon
across the region with highs generally ranging from the upper 70s
to upper 80s. Temperatures near and along the Rio Grande may reach
up to the mid 90s as well. There is a high (70-80%) probability
of record high temperatures at Midland Intl tomorrow afternoon.
Brief periods of high winds in the Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains will also be prevalent late tomorrow afternoon. Similar
mild temperatures are anticipated tomorrow night with lows
spanning from the 40s to mid 50s. Patchy fog development may occur
Friday morning, however, there is less confidence of this
happening due to the lack of low-level moisture available in the
region compared with the previous mornings.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 158 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

The record breaking temperature trend continues through Saturday,
thanks to downslope flow associated with broad upper-level ridging.
Widespread coverage of highs reaching the 80s, perhaps localized
areas, especially along the Trans Pecos reaching the lower 90s both
Friday and Saturday afternoons. A mountain wave signature also
develops from the Rockies spreading all the way down to the
Guadalupe Mountains for both of these days. This signature indicates
strong winds are expected to develop. Combining these stronger winds
with well above normal temperatures and dry conditions, elevated
fire weather will be of concern both Friday and Saturday. Saturday
morning temperatures are anticipated to be in the upper 40s to mid
50s regionwide. With low temperatures being this warm, there is a
medium (50-60%) chance of the "warm low" temperature record (50
degrees set in 2017) being broken at Midland Intl Friday night
into Saturday morning.

The well above normal temperatures streak ends as a dry cold front
arrives in the region Saturday evening. The front will drop
temperatures back to near/slightly above normal on Sunday across
much of the forecast region. Areas along and south of the I-10
corridor are expected to still be in the mid 70s to 80s as the
colder air associated with a surface high pressure system located
in the Great Plains does not filter in until early next week.
Lows return to the 30s to lower 40s areawide Monday and Tuesday
mornings, while highs gradually decrease.

Low (15-30%) rain chances additionally return Monday and Tuesday
across the eastern Permian Basin. Ensemble and deterministic guidance
agree with a mid-level trough moving across the Baja California
vicinity, however, there is disagreement in the positioning as
the trough approaches the region. The positioning of the trough
will affect the amount of lift and moisture for these rain
chances. Given this is six to seven days out and disagreement
among guidance, there is much uncertainty about this potential
system. More details about the rain chances should be ironed out
as we get closer to early next week.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail across all area terminals
through Thursday afternoon. The exception could be a brief period
of IFR to LIFR ceilings and patchy fog with visibility reductions
to MVFR to IFR thresholds across portions of the Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos region between 09-15Z Thursday. Confidence was
low enough to keep mention out of the KMAF TAF with this issuance.
Southwesterly winds will generally diminish to around 10 knots or
less early this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected across West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico through Saturday. Consequent critical minRH
combined with increasing 20-ft westerly winds will continue
through Saturday. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement issuance will
likely be needed for similar areas heading into tomorrow and
Friday. Higher ERCs will be confined to the south, and not
coincident with elevated fire weather conditions northwest.

A cold front Saturday night will alleviate concerns as cooler air
moves into the region. Recovery overnight will be poor in the
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, as well as the Sacramento
Foothills, but moderate to excellent elsewhere. Recovery Wednesday
night will be poor over most of Southeast New Mexico and areas of
West Texas to the south, but moderate to excellent elsewhere. By
early next week, fire weather conditions remain low as higher
minRH values spread across most of the region, besides in the Presidio
Valley region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               50  85  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 41  83  46  85 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   53  87  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            52  90  53  92 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           49  75  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    42  82  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    45  82  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     48  85  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   48  84  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     42  87  44  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...21