


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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430 FXUS64 KMAF 040010 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 710 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 702 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Medium to high rain chances (40-70%, up to 90% in the Davis Mountains and Big Bend) continue today. Rain chances decrease for the 4th of July, becoming more confined to our far eastern counties and the Davis Mountains/Big Bend. - Additional low rain chances Sunday (20-30%, up to 50% in the Davis Mountains). - Temperatures gradually warm closer to/above normal through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Heavy showers and some thunderstorms have continued across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning. Further development is expected this afternoon as our tropical airmass lingers on. PWATs remain well above climatological norms, with MAF`s 12Z sounding showing 1.83 in of precipitable water (for reference, the all-time daily maximum for today is 1.90 in). As a result, flash flooding will continue to be a concern through the rest of today into the evening, and the Flood Watch issued last night will continue through 06Z tonight. This pattern will begin to come to an end starting tomorrow as troughing to the west moves off to the north and east of our area. A few isolated to widely scattered showers can still be anticipated in the Davis Mountains, Eastern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans-Pecos, but chances are overall quite a bit lower than in previous days and look to drop off pretty quickly after sunset (10-40%, with the highest chances in/around the Davis Mountains). In other words, many locations should stay rain-free (albeit muggy) for 4th of July festivities tomorrow night! Otherwise, more seasonable temperatures are expected tomorrow, with highs in the upper 80s and low-to-mid 90s expected for most and lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. Sprang && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 The Long Term period looks a good deal quieter than the Short Term Period overall. Ridging begins to move into the region from the west Saturday, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 90s for most locations. Even though atmospheric moisture will remain anomalously high, this ridge should keep precipitation chances near zero pretty much everywhere, with only some slight chances (10-20%) near/in the Davis Mountains. By Sunday, an inverted trough off of the east coast of Texas could initiate a few additional showers and thunderstorms in our area, though chances for this also remain fairly low (20-30% for most locations, up to 50% in the Davis Mountains). On the flip side, increased cloud cover and rain chances will help keep temperatures a few degrees cooler on Sunday versus Saturday. Additional rain chances appear in the higher terrain of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Monday, mainly the product of upslope flow (20-40%). After that, the aforementioned ridge pretty much squashes any further chances through the extended, save perhaps in the Davis Mountains. Atmospheric moisture will also be on the decline through the extended, while temperatures begin to climb back towards/above seasonal averages. Sprang && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 VFR conditions are generally forecast to prevail through the evening hours, though we do expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to develop across far southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin late tonight into early Friday morning, including near KHOB and KMAF. Scattered SHRA/TSRA may impact the KPEQ and KFST terminal this evening, with a low probability of SHRA/TSRA development prior to 06Z at KINK and KMAF. Localized reductions in ceiling/visibility can be expected near storms. VFR looks to prevail Friday afternoon, with low SHRA/TSRA chances mainly confined to the southwest mountains, Big Bend, and Lower Trans Pecos region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 83 72 92 72 / 60 40 20 10 Carlsbad 82 70 93 70 / 60 20 10 0 Dryden 84 72 92 72 / 60 30 30 10 Fort Stockton 84 71 92 71 / 60 20 20 0 Guadalupe Pass 77 66 86 68 / 50 30 10 0 Hobbs 82 68 92 68 / 50 50 10 0 Marfa 78 65 84 63 / 80 30 30 0 Midland Intl Airport 84 72 94 72 / 60 30 10 0 Odessa 82 70 93 71 / 60 30 10 0 Wink 85 70 94 70 / 50 20 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Friday for Andrews- Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin- Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson- Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin- Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. NM...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...21