239
FXUS64 KMAF 212240
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
540 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 539 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

- Temperatures will be near normal today and Friday. A few showers
  and thunderstorms (10-30 percent chance) will develop, mainly
  over the Davis Mountains, Big Bend, and Lower Trans Pecos region
  during this timeframe.

- After a mainly dry and warm weekend, a wetter and cooler weather
  pattern is in store early into the middle part of the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Current satellite imagery and surface observations depict a boundary
extending from east-central Texas to the Lower Trans Pecos. This
surface boundary is going to promote more moisture and lift for
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. This
is expected to occur mainly across portions along and south of
Interstate 10 with storms quickly dissipating before sunset due to
daytime heating and instability decreasing. Cannot rule out an
isolated storm or two this afternoon across the Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico, though many locations look to remain dry
today, especially for the northern portions of the forecast area.
High temperatures are forecasted to reach the low to mid 90s across
the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and southeast New Mexico
plains. Areas near and along the higher terrain look to reach the
lower to upper 80s. A quiet and normal summer night is in store
tonight. Low temperatures are anticipated to reach the low 60s to
mid 70s regionwide.

Friday, almost a rinse and repeat pattern is on tap compared with
today. Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer in the afternoon,
thanks to the upper high pressure translating slightly eastward
promoting more subsidence. Isolated showers and storms are expected
to develop during the afternoon once again across the Lower Trans
Pecos, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend region before dissipating near
sunset. Friday night low temperatures will be similar ranging
from the lower 60s to lower 70s. Some areas across the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains are forecasted to reach the low to mid 50s.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

A warmer and drier start of the long-term period takes shape as the
upper-level ridge of high pressure builds further eastward.
Northeasterly to easterly flow aloft holds temperatures near to
slightly above normal as high temperatures are forecasted to range
in the low to upper 90s for many locations, besides some spots
along the Rio Grande and Presidio valleys reaching in the lower
100s during the weekend. A low (10-15%) chance in thunderstorms
Saturday (Sunday being lower) afternoon exists across the Davis
Mountains, Rio Grande, and Big Bend region thanks to southeasterly
upslope flow. Ensemble guidance also captures an upper-level
disturbance moving across the eastern Sierra Madre Mountains
providing ascent and moisture for more isolated storms to form
during the afternoon. Overall, most of the area is going to remain
dry due to being influenced by the upper high pressure system.

By early next week, ensemble guidance is in good agreement with the
aforementioned high pressure weakening. At the surface, high
pressure will move off into the eastern half of the US, while
broad areas of low pressure develops to the west. Weak flow within
the upper-level ridge will allow shortwave impulses to develop
near the region. Surface easterlies to southeasterlies both Monday
and Tuesday promotes humid conditions for west Texas standards to
occur. These conditions and synoptic setup signals a wet and
cooler weather pattern by the middle of next week. Guidance
continues to show widespread low to medium (20-50%) chance of
showers and thunderstorms. There is a lot of uncertainty on how
all of this will set up and transpire. We will continue to monitor
on how things progress as we get closer this timeframe. Stay
tuned for updates!

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light/variable return
flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               69  93  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 70  93  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   72  95  72  94 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            69  93  68  93 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           65  84  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    66  92  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    59  85  57  85 /   0  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     70  94  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   70  93  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     70  93  69  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...99