892
FXUS64 KMAF 090008
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
708 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 646 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

- Hazardous heat Friday and Saturday, with Heat Risk values in the
  2 to 3 range.

- Cooling temperatures become near normal early next week due to a
  weak frontal system and increasing cloud cover.

- Precipitation chances increase this weekend and early next week.
  Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected, especially
  nearest the higher elevations, though at least a slight chance
  exists for all locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Hot weather today and tomorrow before more seasonable temperatures
and rain chances return to the area. As with yesterday, VIS/IR
satellite imagery early this afternoon shows little cloud cover,
allowing for ample diurnal heating. A weak dryline boundary that
remains to the east of the forecast area will keep dew point
temperatures below 60 F and in the 40s F higher terrain, lower to
mid 50s F elsewhere. Highs today rise into the upper 90s, triple
digits along the Pecos River, northeast Permian Basin, basins of
Culberson County, and along the Rio Grande, with upper 80s to mid
90s higher elevations, and temperatures up to 105 to 110 F for the
Big Bend. Heat Risk in the 2 to 3 range is present across the area,
indicating a risk of hazardous heat. However, due to the absence of
dew point temperatures above 60 F, apparent high temperatures remain
below air temperatures, and we are not anticipating issuance of any
heat products. With ridging in place in the mid to upper troposphere
and core of the ridging remaining centered over the central CONUS,
very low rain chances (<5%) are present. Tonight, lows fall into the
70s, lower to mid 60s higher elevations as warmer temperatures
during the daytime will not have enough time to radiationally cool
to seasonable overnight low temperatures. South/southeast winds in
the evening into early morning will also enhance boundary layer
mixing and inhibit radiational cooling.

Tomorrow, even warmer temperatures than today develops, with
widespread 100-105 F readings over much of the Permian Basin,
Terrell County, basins of Culberson County and Rio Grande basins,
upper 80s to mid 90s higher elevations, and readings up to 110 F or
higher for the Big Bend. At the same time as these warm temperatures
from large scale sinking motion associated with a strengthening high
are occurring, surface lee troughing from central and eastern NM
into far W TX allows a chance of showers/storms from northernmost SE
NM plains into Culberson County and foothills of Davis Mountains.
However, the chance of rain is expected to be low (between 5% and
15%) for Saturday as the mid to upper ridging will have yet to
weaken enough for fronts and any accompanied near surface lift to
make it into the area. Dew point temperatures are also forecast to
be a few degrees lower areawide than today, so we are again
expecting to hold off on issuing any heat advisory products. Cloud
cover increases with the returning diurnally driven rain chances,
keeping lows Saturday night similar to Friday night but a few
degrees warmer. Saturday marks the last of widespread triple digits,
a few days before the end of the astronomical "dog days of summer".
Seasonable and even below slightly below average highs and low to
moderate rain chances across the area for Sunday into next week are
consistently being indicated. More on that in the long term
discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

A WELCOMED CHANGE IS ON THE HORIZON FOR OUR REGION. OVERALL, COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CAN BE ANTICIPATED
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHIFT BEGINS ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE LOOSENS ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA AND RETROGRADES WESTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, PROVIDING LEE TROUGHING. WHILE IT REMAINS
HOT IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES FALL A FEW DEGREES OVER PREVIOUS DAYS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.

BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ON MONDAY, FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS TO
THE FORECAST ARRIVE. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS, A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDS SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER PUSHES TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS EQUATES TO WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 90S WITH 80S
RETURNING TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE ONLY 100S OF NOTE REMAIN
CONFINED TO ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. AT LEAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR THE AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE AID OF UPSLOPE FLOW, BUT ALSO OVER THE PLAINS
NEAR THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SAME GENERAL PATTERN HOLDS TRUE
INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND STARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB
AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE OVERALL. THE WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN, PUTTING AN END TO THE
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE PUSHING TO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S FOR THE MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DRIER FORECAST RETURNS.

-CHEHAK

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

VFR conditions will continue through Saturday. Southerly winds
will remain elevated up to 10-15 knots through the period.
Occasional gusts over 20 knots will be possible, especially late
Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              102  74 103  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                102  71 103  72 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                  101  73 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           101  72 103  73 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           94  70  94  71 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                   100  70 102  71 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                    94  61  95  61 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport    101  73 103  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   99  73 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    102  72 104  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...21