273
FXUS64 KMAF 240748
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
248 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 241 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (20-60%) continue for areas west
  of the Pecos River each day. Locally heavy rainfall and flash
  flooding will continue to be the main threat.

- Gradual warming trend through Sunday before a slight cooling
  trend early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Showers, some heavy, continue to move north across SE NM and the
higher terrain. A few locations have picked up 0.5"-1" since
midnight, but we have seen a downward trend in coverage on radar
over the last 2 hours. Temperatures remain mild and mostly in the
70s this morning due to the clouds.

A deep fetch of monsoonal moisture will continue to affect western
portions of the area through midweek. This will keep rain chances
high, especially for locations west of the Pecos River. Best
coverage for these area will be each afternoon (30-60%), waning
after midnight (20-30%). With PWATs +2SD heavy rain and flash
flooding with be the main threat we face this week. Will opt to
reissue the Flood Watch for western locations again today. Locations
seeing clouds and rain will only see highs in the 80s at best today
and Wednesday while areas to the east will heat back to near normal
(mid 90s).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

The long term begins with a gradual warmup through Sunday as
thicknesses slowly increase. Chances of precipitation (20-60%)
continue each day west of the Pecos River throughout the extended as
the mid-level trough over the western CONUS ejects multiple
shortwaves through the flow aloft. Additionally, PWATs remain
between the 75th and 90th percentiles as compared to the Sounding
Climatology on SPC`s website. Showers and thunderstorms may stick
around each night as well. Additional Flood Watches may be warranted
west of the Pecos River to account for the abundant rainfall. Low
temperatures are forecast to continue being in the upper 60s to mid
70s each night. Thicknesses decrease Monday, dropping afternoon
highs a few degrees.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

SHRA continue across western terminals overnight with periods of
MVFR possible in the heavier rain. Otherwise, gusty southerly
winds will continue for the rest along with VFR prevailing.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               95  72  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 86  70  87  69 /  60  40  40  40
Dryden                   94  73  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            91  70  92  71 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           78  65  78  64 /  70  60  50  50
Hobbs                    88  69  88  69 /  20  20  10  20
Marfa                    82  63  83  64 /  50  30  30  20
Midland Intl Airport     94  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   92  72  93  72 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     92  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon through late
     tonight for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Marfa
     Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...29