782
FXUS64 KMAF 041009
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
509 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 509 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

- Widespread highs in the triple digits are forecast through the
  end of the week. Drink plenty of water and take breaks in the
  shade!

- Low(10-20%) rain chances return to the region next weekend,
  particularly across the higher terrain and southeast New
  Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge straddling the
Arizona/Sonora border, resulting in northwest flow aloft over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  To the northeast, a MCS is rolling
through western Oklahoma into north central Texas, and will combine
w/earlier convection to push cooler air into the Permian
Basin/Western Low Rolling Plains today, providing a brief respite
from triple-digit heat.  Highs should average ~ 5-7 F above normal.
Even so, temperatures look to remain just under heat advisory
criteria.  Rain chances look slim, w/isolated convection expected
invof the Davis Mountains/Big Bend Area.

Tonight, a 40+kt LLJ is forecast to redevelop, combining w/a few
mid/high clouds to keep overnight lows an uncomfortable 5 F above
normal.

Tuesday, the ridge continues developing east, to southwest New
Mexico by the afternoon, and beginning a dry spell.  Absent
tonight`s gust front, highs should increase by a couple of degrees
for more widespread triple-digit temperatures.  Heat advisories may
be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

The long term forecast remains unchanged since the last forecast
package. High pressure is still slated to center itself over New
Mexico beginning on Tuesday. From Tuesday through the end of the
week, that upper level ridge will be nearly stationary. Highs
across the area move well above normal with most locations
reaching into the upper 90s to low 100s. Portions of Big Bend will
see temperatures near or in excess of 110F, especially across the
low desert and near the Rio Grande. Higher elevations will reach
into the low to mid 90s. Some zones will need heat products for
most of this hotter stretch, but these products will be issued on
a day by day basis. Overnight lows settle into the mid 70s for
most with the higher elevations getting slightly cooler each
morning. With the proximity of the ridge, rain chances fall to
near zero through much of the extended. Ensembles show the ridge
weakening by next weekend with temperatures returning closer to
normal with rain chances increasing slightly(to around 10-20%).

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               98  72 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                101  71 103  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                  103  74 102  75 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           103  74 102  74 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           93  71  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    97  70 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    94  64  95  62 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport    100  73 100  75 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   98  73  99  75 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                    101  74 102  74 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...