977
FXUS64 KMAF 250817
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
217 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 210 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

 - A cold front will move into the area this afternoon, bringing
   much cooler temperatures.

 - A quick warm up occurs on Wednesday with temperatures 15 to 20
   degrees above normal. There will be gusty southwest winds
   across the region with possible high winds in the Guadalupe and
   Delaware Mountains during the afternoon and evening on
   Wednesday also.

 - A cold front moves through the area during the early morning on
   Thursday, bringing below normal temperatures to the area on
   Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 210 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Change is on the horizon as we begin the new week. A weather system
that will pass to our north and continue off to the northeast
through the morning hours. This will push a cold front southwest
through the Texas Panhandle as it does so. Ahead of this front,
temperatures remain mild during the morning as widespread upper 40s
and low 50s will be common. Through the mid-morning and afternoon
the aforementioned front continues to march southwest through
southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin. Much cooler temperatures
can be expected behind this front through this afternoon. Areas
across far northern portions of the Permian Basin may struggle to
warm through the 50s as the remainder of southeast New Mexico and
the Permian Basin only climb into the 60s. The cold front briefly
stalls against the higher terrain of the Guadalupe, Davis, and Glass
Mountains during the afternoon. This allows for areas to the south
to continue with the very warm weather in the 70s to low 80s for one
more afternoon. While mid to high level clouds increase with the
passing weather system, the cold front remains dry with no chance of
precipitation.

Surface high pressure settles in across the northeast Permian Basin
by Tuesday morning as the front pushes through the remainder of the
area. At the same time, high clouds begin to clear out of the
region. This combination allows for excellent radiational cooling
with temperatures falling well into the 30s across much of the
region. Further to the south hangs on to temperatures in the 40s. It
does not appear there will be freezing temperatures at this time,
but this will be monitored. While the remainder of the cooler
airmass settles into the region on Tuesday, sunny skies counteract
this somewhat. The result will be temperatures right around normal
across the region Tuesday afternoon. Many locations can expect
plentiful sunshine with pleasant temperatures in the mid 60s to
lower 70s.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 210 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

The pendulum swings back the other way by the middle of the week. As
our next weather system begins to sink southeast towards the central
Great Plains, temperatures ahead of this system soar. Mild
temperatures start the day on Wednesday as strengthening southwest
winds keep most in the upper 40s and low 50s. A strong belt of mid
to upper-level west winds overspreads the area during the afternoon
on Wednesday. These warm, downsloping winds push temperatures well
into the 70s and low 80s. These temperatures should remain just shy
of record territory, but are going to be 15 to 20 degrees above
normal. While breezy southwest winds are expected for all, high
winds are likely to develop across the western higher terrain of the
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. A High Wind Watch may be needed in
the near future for this potential.

Similar to Monday, a cold front quickly moves in behind the
departing weather system as it lifts towards the northeast Wednesday
night. Cooler overnight temperatures in the 30s and 40s replace the
mild temperatures from the night prior as cold air advection takes
over. Surface high pressure quickly settles into the Permian Basin
during the afternoon on Thanksgiving. Widespread below normal
temperatures in the 50s are expected, which is fitting for the
holiday I suppose. The only warm spots will be along the Rio Grande
where 60s and 70s hang on. The remainder of the cold air settles
into the area Thursday night, resulting in a chilly morning for
Black Friday. Near freezing temperatures are likely across a large
portion of the Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico with equally
chilly upper 30s and low 40s elsewhere. A jacket is going to be
required for those intending to go shopping early in the morning.
Another cool afternoon is expected Friday as the 50s and 60s
continue for the region.

Next weekend may see a brief warm up on Saturday as temperatures
climb to closer to normal for the area. This warm up appears to be
short-lived. A large trough of low pressure is set to take shape
across the Upper Midwest. This feature will usher in repeated weak
weather systems sinking across the Great Plains. This is expected to
push another cold front across the region either late Saturday or
early Sunday, bringing another shot of cold air. These cooler than
normal temperatures appear likely to hang on into early next week
with this overall weather pattern. The unfortunate news is with all
weather systems passing north of the area, there is no hope of
precipitation through the entire forecast.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR conditions prevail across the region trough Monday. Gusty
westerly winds this afternoon have weakened this evening. An
approaching cold front will result in winds becoming more
northwesterly to northerly by mid-morning. By the late morning
and early afternoon, this cold front moves south through the
area. As it passes through each terminal from north to south, wind
speeds may briefly increase out of the northeast before weakening,
but remaining largely northeasterly. Scattered high cirrus clouds
remain possible across the region.

-Chehak

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               56  34  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 66  37  71  56 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   81  42  67  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            73  40  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           67  39  66  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    58  35  65  51 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    75  40  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     60  36  66  51 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   60  37  66  52 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     65  38  69  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...91