125
FXUS64 KMAF 022247
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
447 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 446 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected Tuesday,
  Thursday, and Friday mainly for southeast New Mexico and the
  high terrain of West Texas.

- Rain chances increase for mainly eastern portions of the area
  mid-week and into the weekend (generally 20-50% chances).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1259 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Despite a cool and cloudy start, much of the region should warm up
into the 70s and 80s today with 90s along the Rio Grande. Most
locations dip into the 50s tonight as southerly winds keep
temperatures above normal. Winds shift southwesterly for Tuesday
and this downslope direction will bring temperatures back well
above normal with most reaching into the 80s to low 90s. The
record at KMAF for tomorrow is 89F and the current forecast is for
88F. A cold front is pushed through late Tuesday night and will
bring colder air to at least the northern tier of counties of the
region with some spots reaching into the 40s with 50s and 60s
elsewhere.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1259 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

After the passage of a cold front Wednesday morning, temperatures
end up relatively cooler, compared to Monday and Tuesday, but still
above normal with most still reaching into the 70s and 80s. A spring-
like pattern takes hold for the middle and end to the week as
troughing persists across the Rockies and Great Plains. As moisture
pools across portions of West and central Texas, rain chances
increase across the eastern and northeastern portions of the CWA,
but remain low (20-40%). Heading into Thursday and Friday, an
approaching low from the west will add necessary lift and shear
allowing for storms to become somewhat more organized. A few storms
may be strong to severe, but the best conditions will remain mostly
east of the Midland/Odessa area and may end up east of the region
all together. Some uncertainty remains in just where storms will
setup over the course of Thursday and Friday. Long range ensembles
continue to show elevated rain chances (20-50%) for much of the area
for both Saturday and Sunday, but questions remain about how much
moisture will be available for areas further west.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 446 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, with increasing high
clouds. Light return flow will veer to southwest after sunup
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               56  86  54  78 /   0  10  10  30
Carlsbad                 50  88  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   57  88  60  85 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton            59  91  57  81 /   0  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           55  79  50  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    51  87  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    46  85  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     57  88  55  79 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                   57  87  55  79 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                     55  90  50  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...99