335
FXUS64 KMAF 241900
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
200 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 159 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

- Well above normal temperatures in the 90s to low 100s with a low
  (<30%) chance of afternoon thunderstorms today through Monday
  across the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend. A few
  of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe with large hail
  and damaging winds.

- A cold front moves through the region by Tuesday. Cooler
  temperatures largely in the 80s with and a medium (30-60%)
  chance of thunderstorms can be expected across much of the
  region through next week.

- Total rainfall amounts could reach 0.5" to 1.5" for many
  locations with higher totals where the heaviest thunderstorms
  track by the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Another quite hot afternoon is taking shape as temperatures in the
upper 90s and triple digits hold on. Currently, satellite imagery
shows cumulus clouds developing over the Davis Mountains, a sign of
thunderstorm formation within the next few hours. This afternoon,
storms are expected develop near and along the dryline over the
Stockton Plateau and the Permian Basin. A few storms will have the
potential to become strong to severe, with the highest odds in the
northeastern Permian Basin. The main threats with any severe storms
will be large hail and damaging winds. Heading into the evening,
storms track eastward and eventually taper off. Overnight,
temperatures fall to the mid 60s to mid 70s as a surface low in the
Texas Panhandle shifts toward eastern New Mexico, steering surface
winds out of the south and southeast.

Sunday, a more active weather pattern starts to show its face. In
the upper levels, ridging responsible for the recent above normal
temperatures slowly drifts eastward and opens the door for troughing
to take the wheel. Though we will remain under southwesterly flow
aloft, lowering geopotential heights mean slightly cooler
temperatures. Highs Sunday heat into the 90s to low 100s again, but
90s become more dominant while the triple digits stay mainly near
the Pecos and Rio Grande river valleys. Rain chances ramp up during
the afternoon as the dryline extends from the north-central Permian
Basin down toward the eastern Big Bend area and a stationary front
rests near the Texas Panhandle. By the early afternoon, low (10%-
20%) rain chances are forecast east of the Davis Mountains and the
northeastern Permian Basin. Late afternoon and into the evening,
PoPs increase to 10%-30% and spread eastward from the TX/NM border
down to the Davis Mountains, with best odds over our eastern
counties. Provided ample moisture/instability ahead of the
boundaries and 0-6 km shear between 20-30 kts, some storms will
again have the potential to become strong to severe. The strongest
storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.
However, since the strongest source of rising motion is expected to
be near the Panhandle, in the vicinity of the surface low, storm
coverage looks to be widely spaced out in our area. Thunderstorm
activity translates east Sunday night and a cold front begins to
gradually sag down from the north. Temperatures are forecast to
bottom out in the low 60s to low 70s for most. The aforementioned
cold front eventually ushers in a cooler and wetter weather pattern
beyond this point. More details in the long term discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Monday should be the last of the hot weather for the forecast with a
cold front knocking on our door by that evening. In the meantime,
modest ridging keeps temperatures into the 90s and low 100s across
the bulk of the area. Afternoon thunderstorms remain possible along
and east of the dryline, but this chance remains low (<30%) given
weak upper-level support. A storm or two could be strong to severe
with a threat of large hail and damaging winds.

The remainder of next week is expected to contain a similar weather
forecast each day. As the aforementioned cold front moves into our
area on Tuesday, a few other features begin to take shape. A large
upper-level low pressure system is expected to take shape over the
Great Lakes region with a second broad trough developing over the
Desert Southwest. This will turn our cold front into a quasi-
stationary boundary that moves north and south over the southern
High Plains depending on thunderstorm outflow and subtle
disturbances each day. Lee troughing ahead of the broad trough to
our west keeps plentiful moisture in place with broad surface
cyclogenesis over the central to southern High Plains. With that
pattern in mind, let`s get into the details.

Temperatures begin their cooling trend on Tuesday with most
locations falling back into the 80s, though 90s and 100s hold on for
the Rio Grande Valley. After this, below normal temperatures in the
80s are anticipated for the majority of the area with 90s and low
100s along the Rio Grande Valley through the end of next week. Daily
thunderstorm chances are expected across the region due to a
combination of the quasi-stationary boundary, thunderstorm outflow,
orographic ascent, and lee cyclogenesis each day. Most of the area
can expect a medium (30-60%) chance of precipitation during most
days. The greatest chance of precipitation is likely to shift around
each day as a result of the previous day`s thunderstorms or any
early day activity. With that being said, the favored higher terrain
of the Davis Mountains and the eastern Permian Basin are expected to
have the most consistent threat of repeated thunderstorms throughout
the week. Overall, ensemble guidance maintains above-normal
perceptible water amounts through much of next week, lending hope
for appreciable rainfall. There is growing confidence that areas
that receive thunderstorms could see 0.5" to 1.5" of rain by the end
of the week. Higher rainfall totals are likely for those that
receive the heaviest thunderstorms. Overall, a welcomed pattern
change to close out the month of May.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR conditions are expected to persist through much of the period.
A few storms are forecast to develop later this afternoon and
evening, but largely avoid the terminals. However, strong winds
associated with storms may have the potential to kick up some
BLDU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72 100  67  94 /  30  10  30  20
Carlsbad                 65  97  62  94 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   72 102  71 102 /  20  10  30  20
Fort Stockton            71 100  68  99 /  20  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           65  87  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    65  96  59  91 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                    59  90  58  88 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     73  99  68  95 /  20  10  20  20
Odessa                   72  98  68  95 /  20  10  20  10
Wink                     69 100  64  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...95