674
FXUS64 KMAF 072313
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
613 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025

- Low to medium rain chances (20-50%) will continue for areas
  south of the I-10 corridor through this afternoon before
  decreasing tonight. Locally heavy rainfall and localized
  flooding along with frequent lightning will be the primary
  concerns.

- Above normal temperatures in the lower to mid 90s for most of
  our region through much of the week.

- Mainly dry weather conditions expected Tuesday through next
  weekend. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop over the
  higher terrain Tuesday and again next weekend. Other isolated
  showers and thunderstorms may also develop over portions of
  southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin next
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025

Current satellite imagery and observations show a stationary
boundary situated across the Davis Mountains extending through Deep
South Texas. This boundary resulted in a lot of rainfall across
portions of the Lower Trans Pecos earlier this morning. Sufficient
daytime heating in the vicinity of this boundary will promote
additional thunderstorm development. The greatest chance (20-40%) in
seeing rain/storms this afternoon lies across the Davis Mountains,
Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend region, and locations along the Rio
Grande. The primary threats associated with these storms will be
heavy rainfall, which may lead to localized flash flooding, and
frequent lightning. PWATs remain near the 90th percentile signaling
that heavy rainfall will occur with these storms. Many areas
elsewhere look to remain dry with high cloud coverage slowly coming
to end from what has been seen over the past couple of days. High
temperatures are expected to span in the low to upper 80s with the
exception of a few locations along the Rio Grande and Pecos River
valleys being in the 90s.

Warmer and drier weather kicks off the work week, thanks to upper-
level ridging building back into the region. High temperatures are
expected to be near/slightly above normal (high 80s to mid 90s).
Southeasterly upslope flow and daytime heating will aid in isolated
storm development during the afternoon for areas along and south of
the Interstate 10 corridor along with locations near the Guadalupe
Mountains. Similar hazards are expected compared to Sunday`s storms,
though forecast soundings suggest much lower PWATs due to the ridge
of high pressure entraining drier air to the region. Therefore, the
heavy rainfall threat will not be as significant. High DCAPE values
and "inverted-V" profiles hint at a downburst/damaging wind threat
for the strongest storm. Most, if not all storms are expected to
remain non-severe tomorrow afternoon. The warming and isolated
shower/storm trend continues heading into the long-term.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025

Upper-level ridging will build across west Texas and southeast
New Mexico by Tuesday and will remain the dominant weather feature
through the end of the week. Dry weather conditions will prevail
across the majority of our area through Friday, with the exception
of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms that could develop
over the higher terrain of the Davis/Glass Mountains on Tuesday
afternoon. Above normal temperatures are expected to trend above
normal Tuesday-Friday underneath ridging aloft. Highs will
generally range in the lower to mid 90s each day, except for 80s
in the higher terrain and readings in the upper 90s to around 103
degrees along the Rio Grande. Overnight lows will mostly be in the
60s, with mid to upper 50s in the higher terrain and in the lower
70s along the Rio Grande.

An upper-level trough is forecast to deepen over the northern Rocky
Mountains next weekend, though confidence is low on how far south
the trough axis will extend. There is some indication in both the
operational GFS and ECMWF and ensemble data that shortwaves may
round the base of the trough and move into portions of eastern New
Mexico and west Texas this weekend and could aid in the development
of at least a few showers and thunderstorms over portions of
southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin Saturday and
Sunday. Other isolated showers and thunderstorms may also develop
in the higher terrain areas both days. Will keep rain chances very
low (10-20%) both days. Highs should continue to range in the
upper 80s to lower 90s for most areas through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025

VFR conditions and light southeast winds will continue the next 24
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               66  89  66  93 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 65  92  65  96 /  10  10   0  10
Dryden                   69  88  67  92 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            66  90  66  94 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           63  85  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
Hobbs                    63  87  63  91 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                    57  84  57  87 /   0  20   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     68  90  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   67  88  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     66  91  66  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...10