768
FXUS64 KMAF 071945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 145 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

- Temperatures warm to above normal most locations by Wednesday,
  and remain there for the duration of the forecast, peaking
  on Sunday.

- Chances of precipitation are slim-to-none.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

As the upper-level trough responsible for our chilly weekend
departs, an upper ridge begins to build over the southwestern CONUS,
kick starting a warming trend. Upper-level flow looks to remain
generally out of the northwest, keeping us dry. This evening, winds
gradually transition from northerly to southerly by tomorrow morning
in response to surface high pressure near the Texas Gulf coast. This
coupled with clear to mostly clear skies result in morning lows in
the upper 30s to 40s. Tuesday`s highs warm up roughly 10 to 15
degrees over Monday, topping out in the upper 70s and 80s. Winds
will be slightly breezy out of the southwest, mainly in our northern
tier and the Guadalupes as a surface low develops off the lee of the
Rockies. Lows tomorrow night dip into the 40s and 50s. Overall, the
short term remains quieter and warmer than what we`ve seen over the
last few days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Wednesday, an upper ridge will straddle the west coast, putting West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, northwest flow aloft.
Sunny skies and southwest-to-west surface winds will continue the
uptick in thicknesses, with afternoon highs coming in around 10 F
above normal.

Unfortunately, a cold front will intrude upon the area late
Wednesday afternoon/night, taking the shine off the warmth for a
couple of days.  Thicknesses come down Thursday and Friday, with
Friday perhaps the coolest day of the extended as highs bottom out
only 2-3 F above normal.

Fortunately, this cooling will be ephemeral, as the upper ridge
reestablishes dominance over the weekend.  This feature is forecast
to pass through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico on Sunday, when
highs top out a pleasant ~ 15 F above normal, making Sunday the
warmest day this forecast.  Monday, temperatures will cool around 5
F on the backside of the ridge, but still finish well above normal.

Unfortunately, the long term looks drier than a moth sandwich. Attm,
last week`s precipitation should mollify fire weather concerns into
next week.  However, elevated conditions may try and creep back into
play Sunday and/or Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light, northerly
winds will gradually transition out of the south and southwest
over the course of the night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               41  81  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 41  80  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   45  84  48  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            46  82  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           45  70  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    40  78  46  86 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    38  76  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     42  80  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   44  80  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     42  82  48  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...95