793
FXUS64 KMAF 192242
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
542 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 541 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

- There is a low to medium (20-40%) chance of afternoon and
  evening thunderstorms across the region through Wednesday, with
  a slightly higher (40-65%) chance of thunderstorms over the
  Davis Mountains. Thunderstorms may produce brief heavy
  downpours, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.

- Drier weather for much of the area beginning Thursday and
  continuing into early next week. Low (10-20%) probability of
  showers and thunderstorms for southeastern/southern parts of the
  forecast area/higher elevations of Marfa Plateau Friday through
  Saturday.

- Rain chances become 10% or less during the Sunday/Monday
  timeframe.

- Near normal temperatures are expected throughout the whole
  forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery this afternoon
shows the upper ridge over the Four Corners, about which it is
forecast to oscillate over the next 48 hours or so, resulting in
northeast flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

Area radars show convection already attempting to initiate in the
Davis Mountains, w/the HRRR in agreement in developing this activity
much as it has the past few days, w/the added assist of a weak cold
front dropping into the area overnight.  This may keep convection
going a little longer than the past few nights, especially north.
unfortunately, abundant cloud cover will retard radiational cooling,
keeping overnight minimums an uncomfortable ~ 5-7 F above
climatology.

Wednesday, the front will combine w/decreasing thicknesses to shave
a couple of degrees off this afternoon`s temperatures, yet yielding
highs still a couple of degrees above normal.  Scattered convection
is expected, w/chances/coverage expected much like the past few days.

This activity should taper off to the east Wednesday night.  A
little less cloud cover and the absence of the LLJ will allow
overnight lows a degree or so cooler than tonight`s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Shower and thunderstorm chances begin to decrease during the long
term period with Thursday having the highest probabilities (20-50%)
across the whole forecast area. Any slow-moving
showers/thunderstorms may pose a flash flood risk Thursday.
Fortunately, the upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the
region Friday, increasing subsidence over the area and lowering
PoPs. Chances (10-20%) of showers/thunderstorms drop dramatically
Friday and Saturday before dropping even further (10% or less) by
the Sunday/Monday timeframe. After Thursday, convective coverage
will mostly be limited to the Davis Mountains, Big Bend, and Lower
Trans Pecos region. Afternoon highs each afternoon are expected to
be near to slightly above normal (95 F at Midland International Air
and Space Port). Overnight lows are forecast to bottom out in the
60s to low 70s each night as clear skies and light winds allow for
radiational cooling effects.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, except perhaps in areas of
direct convection. A weak cold front will ease into the area
overnight and Wednesday, with little effect except for a wind
shift. Convection will be possible everywhere this
evening. Another widespread cu field is anticipated Wednesday,
but convective chances are too far out for a mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  95  71  95 /  20  30  20  20
Carlsbad                 71  93  70  94 /  20  30  10  10
Dryden                   73  99  74  97 /  20  30  30  30
Fort Stockton            71  95  71  94 /  10  30  20  30
Guadalupe Pass           67  85  67  85 /  20  30  10  20
Hobbs                    69  92  67  93 /  30  30  20  20
Marfa                    62  87  60  85 /  10  50  10  40
Midland Intl Airport     73  95  72  95 /  20  30  30  30
Odessa                   72  93  71  94 /  20  30  30  20
Wink                     72  95  70  94 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...99