118
FXUS64 KMAF 221139
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
639 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

- Temperatures will remain near normal today and Saturday. Isolated
  afternoon showers and thunderstorms (10-15 percent chance) may
  develop across portions of the Lower Trans Pecos region, Marfa
  Plateau, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend region today.

- Slightly cooler temperatures return with rain probabilities
  increasing to a low to medium (25% to 45%) chance Tuesday into
  the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Upper-level high pressure will remain centered over the Four
Corners through Saturday afternoon. The associated upper-level
ridge axis will extend across southeast New Mexico and much of
west Texas. Deep layer subsidence will increase over much of our
forecast area today through Saturday as heights gradually build
across the region. Moisture convergence along a subtle low-level
boundary extending across portions of the Big Bend and Lower Trans
Pecos region may aid in the development of very isolated showers
and thunderstorms over this portion of our area this afternoon. We
will maintain a very low (10-15 percent) chance of convective
mention across these locations. Any isolated convection that
develops should diminish by early this evening. The rest of our
region should remain dry underneath the influence of the upper-
level ridge. A similar scenario is expected on Saturday. The
majority of our region will remain dry, except for very isolated
showers or storms along southern portions of the Big Bend and into
the Lower Trans Pecos region. Highs today and Saturday are
forecast to range in the lower to mid 90s over most places, except
for readings in the 80s in the mountains and in the upper 90s to
around 102 degrees along the Rio Grande. Lows tonight should range
in the 60s to lower 70s across the region (except mid 50s to
around 60 degrees over the higher elevation areas).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A dry weekend and early week with warm and relatively dry
conditions are expected, but cooler, rainier, and more humid
weather develops by the middle of next week and persists into the
end of next week. Easterly near surface winds continue on the
southern end of a mid to upper ridge over the Four Corners into
the Great Basin, with a stalled quasi-stationary front and
associated near surface lift remaining to the northeast over
northwest TX. Probability of rain therefore remains low and skies
mostly clear. This allows lows Saturday night to fall into the mid
to upper 60s F, lower 70s F easternmost and southernmost parts of
the area, and upper 60s F Marfa Plateau and peaks of Guadalupes.
The lack of cloud cover and rain chances from large scale sinking
motion also allow highs to rise into the mid to upper 90s F, mid
to upper 80s F higher elevations, and upper 90s F along Rio Grande
again on Sunday, with triple digits again also confined to the
Big Bend. Sunday night and Monday offer similar to Saturday night
and Sunday, but a few degrees warmer and cloudier as the mid to
upper ridge begins to develop farther west into the Great Basin
and amplify, with mid to upper flow on its eastern end allowing
the front over northwest TX to move southwest into the area and
northwest repositioning of the ridge allowing southeast winds to
develop and bring in higher dew point temperatures in the 60s F
and more cloud cover into the area. Rain probabilities remain low
for Monday but lows Monday fall into the upper 60s F and lower 70s
F for most of the area with the increased cloud cover and
moisture.

Tuesday into the middle of the week, highs progressively trend
down a few degrees each day for all but the Rio Grande as cloud
cover and rain probabilities increase with increased lift
associated with the front over northwest TX and forcing for near
surface ascent by then moving through the area. This translates to
lows falling into the mid to upper 80s F for most of SE NM plains
and Permian Basin, while upper 90s F remain along Rio Grande.
Rain probabilities increase to low to medium (25% to 45%) over
Marfa Plateau early Tuesday afternoon and then expand across the
area, with highest rain probabilities over Culberson County, Upper
Trans Pecos, SE NM plains, and northwest into central Permian
Basin Tuesday evening. Low to medium (20% to 45%) probabilities
continue Tuesday night with highest probabilities over 30% over SE
NM plains into northern and central Permian Basin, as lows fall
into the 60s and 70s F as overnight cooling is limited by cloud
cover and increased moisture. Rain probabilities increase to
medium (35% to 55%) by early afternoon Wednesday with highest
probabilities again over Marfa Plateau, before probabilities
decrease to low to medium (20% to 35%), with highest probabilities
above 30% over Culberson County, SE NM plains, and northern into
central Permian Basin. Highs similar to Tuesday but a few degrees
cooler expected on Wednesday when the highest rain chances are
consistently indicated, with lows Wednesday night similar to
Tuesday night. Lower rain probabilities (25% to 40% and highest
over Marfa Plateau early afternoon followed by SE NM plains and
northern and central Permian Basin Thursday evening) and cloud
cover by Thursday allow highs to warm back into the lower to mid
90s F for most of Permian Basin and parts of SE NM plains.
However, dew point temperatures remain in the 60s F and low to
medium rain probabilities stick around into late week, ending
August this year on a warm and humid note. Rainfall accumulations
up to at least 0.50" where highest rain probabilities set up are
forecast by the end of the week, so we may also have to watch for
risk of flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across area terminals through the
period with generally light easterly to northeasterly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               94  68  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 94  68  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   96  72  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            94  69  93  67 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           85  66  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    92  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    87  57  86  57 /  10   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     94  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   93  69  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     95  69  95  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...21