383
FXUS64 KMAF 082328
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
628 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 627 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
  afternoon and evening, mainly in/around the Davis Mountains of
  West Texas.

- Above normal temperatures return Saturday, and continue through
  next week. Highs during the middle part of next week should
  average around 10 F above normal, making it feel more like early
  July than mid May.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper trough over northern
Chihuahua, and this feature is set to very slowly traverse the Davis
Mountains/Big Bend Area later this afternoon and tonight, opening a
window for convection, which CAMs concentrate in the Davis
Mountains.  Return flow will continue advecting rich Gulf moisture
into the area, adding 3-4 F to overnight minimums, pushing them to ~
3-4 F above climatology.

Saturday, dry, northwesterly flow aloft develops in the wake of the
exiting trough, with thicknesses continuing to increase under mostly
sunny skies.  Highs will top out ~ 5-10 F above normal, around 6-8 F
warmer than today, and putting most locations solidly in the 90s.

With these warmer temperatures, continued return flow, and a 35 kt
LLJ developing, lows Saturday night should come in 4-5 F above
tonight`s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A cold front sweeps into our region Sunday morning, driven by an
upper trough spanning from the northern Plains to the northeastern
CONUS. Breezy north and northeast winds are expected behind the
front. Highs in our northern counties and the higher elevations are
forecast to reach the 80s Sunday afternoon, the triple digits along
the Rio Grande, and the 90s elsewhere.  As the trough shifts
eastward late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, an embedded
shortwave may allow for some isolated shower/storm development
within our easternmost counties. Rain chances are currently low
(10-30%) Sunday afternoon and evening. Surface high pressure sets
up behind the cold front overnight Sunday, keeping cool air
flowing into our region. Temperatures Sunday night fall to the
50s/60s, then warm to the 80s Monday. Upper ridging builds from
the west through the remainder of the Long Term period, with lee
troughing developing over the Plains early Tuesday morning.
Afternoon highs soar into the 90s for most each afternoon, with
overnight lows generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions and light southerly to southwesterly winds will
prevail through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               61  94  66  89 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 57  96  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   62  91  64  98 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            59  94  64  96 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           58  86  63  82 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                    55  93  60  84 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    48  88  52  91 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     61  92  65  89 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   61  92  66  89 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     59  94  63  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...11