620
FXUS64 KMAF 171810
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
110 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 110 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

- A low to medium (15-50%) chance of thunderstorms during the
  afternoon and evening on Sunday and Monday, with highest chance
  of rain over the Davis Mountains and surrounding foothills (40-70%).

- Near normal temperatures early next week, becoming slightly
  below normal by the middle and end of the week.

- There is a daily low to medium (20-65%) chance of thunderstorms
  for much of the area, with the highest chances over western
  portions of the area early in the week, shifting eastward later
  in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery this afternoon
shows the upper ridge centered roughly over the ArklaTex, and
extending southwest beyond the Rio Grande Valley.  Area radars show
convection already developing over the Davis Mountains, and CAMs
suggest this may develop a little farther east than it did 24 hours
ago.

This activity will gradually diminish this evening.  A 25 kt LLJ and
abundant mid/high cloud will retard radiational cooling, yielding
another night of lows an uncomfortable ~ 5-7 F above normal, if not
more.

Monday, the ridge begins developing west toward the Four Corners.
Thicknesses make increase ever so slightly, adding maybe a degree to
today`s highs, and topping out ~ 4-6 F above normal.  CAMs suggest
convective chances/coverage will be very similar to this afternoon`s.

Monday night looks like a carbon copy of tonight, with near-
identical overnight lows.  CAMs diminish convection, but keep it
going a little longer overnight, especially northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

The upper-level ridge is forecast to redevelop to our west by
Tuesday. Simultaneously, a broad trough over the Upper Midwest
begins to dig and pushes a cold front into the area by midweek. This
will allow for shower and thunderstorm chances to increase (20-50%)
further east from the higher terrain. Afternoon highs behind the
front drop slightly below normal during the latter half of the week.
Overnight lows also take a hit where temperatures in the mid to
upper 60s are expected for much of the area. For reference, the
normal high/low temperature (in degrees Fahrenheit) this time of
year at Midland International Air and Space Port is 95/72. There is
a low to medium (20-65%) chance of showers and thunderstorms each
day throughout the extended. As the upper-level ridge to our west
builds, chances of showers and thunderstorms gradually decrease from
west to east. By the Friday/Saturday timeframe, these chances (10-
40%) decrease with much of the coverage becoming confined to the
Stockton Plateau/Big Bend/Lower Trans Pecos/Permian Basin regions.
Though the Davis Mountains still could see some activity as well.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, except perhaps in areas
of direct convection, in light/variable return flow. A widespread
cu field is expected this afternoon, w/bases ~ 4.5-7 kft AGL.
Convection will be possible everywhere except KMAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75  99  73  97 /  10  20  10  30
Carlsbad                 72  96  72  96 /  30  30  30  30
Dryden                   75 101  75  99 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Stockton            74  98  73  97 /  10  20  10  40
Guadalupe Pass           68  86  68  87 /  20  40  30  40
Hobbs                    70  95  70  95 /  30  40  20  30
Marfa                    62  88  62  87 /  20  50  20  50
Midland Intl Airport     75  98  74  96 /  20  20  20  30
Odessa                   75  96  74  95 /  20  20  20  30
Wink                     73  97  72  97 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...99