197
FXUS64 KMAF 091123
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- A summer-like pattern with hot temperatures and drier conditions
  prevails through much of the week.

- Heat related concerns increase over the Pecos River Valley and
  along the Rio Grande where high temperatures will range between
  100-110 degrees through much of this week.

- More seasonable but still very warm temperatures with increased
  shower/storm chances Friday through this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Temperatures taper down a touch today compared to yesterday as an
upper level ridge shifts eastward and an upper trough positions
itself over the western US. Highs this afternoon are progged to warm
into the low 90s to 100s. Triple digit heat looks to be confined to
areas near and along the Rio Grande and the Pecos River valleys,
maximizing up to near 110 degrees in portions of the Big Bend. At
the surface, a dryline will span from eastern New Mexico down into
the western fringes of our region this afternoon. Moist and breezy
(15-25 mph) south/southeast winds combine with lift along the
dryline and from a shortwave aloft to promote isolated shower/storm
development later today. Rain chances remain low (<15%) over
southeast New Mexico and near the Davis Mountains this afternoon and
evening. Tonight, temperatures cool into the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Wednesday, flow aloft becomes zonal to northwesterly. An upper high
sets up over northern Mexico and an upper trough begins to shift
from the Rockies into the Great Plains. High temperatures beyond the
century mark are forecast for southeast New Mexico, the western half
of the Permian Basin, the Upper Trans Pecos, and the Rio Grande
valley. Highs near and along the river valleys may top out anywhere
between 105 to 110 degrees. Isolated to scattered showers/storms may
develop along a dryline extending from southeast New Mexico to just
west of the Big Bend Wednesday afternoon. Rain chances range from 10-
40% over the higher terrain west of the Pecos River, with best odds
in and near the Davis Mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Similar to Wednesday, the nearby upper high allows hot temperatures
to stick around Thursday. Highs top out in the upper 90s and low
100s for much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. The hottest
temperatures will be found near and along the Pecos and Rio Grande,
where highs will top out between 104-108 degrees, nearing 110 in
some locations along the international border. Otherwise isolated
showers and thunderstorms may once again develop Thursday afternoon,
with the best chances (around 25%) in/near the higher terrain. By
Friday through the remainder of the weekend and into next week, a
series of shortwave troughs move across northern portions of the
CONUS. This helps dampen the ridge, allowing highs to fall closer to
seasonal norms (low-to-mid 90s most days). Meanwhile, quasi-zonal to
northwesterly flow aloft develops over our region. Disturbances in
the upper-level flow bring better chances of showers and storms back
to the area starting Friday (mainly across westernmost portions of
the area, between 30-60%). Chances in the 20-50% range continue for
most of the area through early next week as disturbances continue to
move overhead. Guidance still depicts PWATs between 1.0-1.5 inches
across the region through this time period, which ranges between the
75th-90th percentile or higher for this time of year. As a result,
flash flooding will be a concern with isolated to scattered storms
that do develop. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will also be
possible given seasonably strong instability and very marginal deep-
layer shear (generally 15-25 kts).

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

MVFR CIGs are present at all terminals with the exception of PEQ
and FST. However, CIGs may occasionally fall to MVFR at FST this
morning. MVFR CIGs should become VFR by mid to late morning.
Breezy, south/southeast winds are expected at most sites today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               91  72  99  74 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 99  71 106  73 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                   95  73  99  75 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            96  71 103  73 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           92  70  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                    93  68 102  70 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    93  62  96  63 /   0  10  30  20
Midland Intl Airport     90  71  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   91  71  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     97  72 104  73 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...95