434
FXUS64 KMAF 121804
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
104 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1258 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

- Moderate probability of heavy rain over the area through end of
  this weekend into Monday, with cooler than average temperatures
  forecast.

- Gradual warming and drying trend after Monday, but with
  persistent rain chances southwest and west of Permian Basin and
  temperatures remaining seasonable into end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

WV imagery this afternoon shows an upper ridge just off the coast
of SoCal/Baja del Norte, and another over the Florida Panhandle,
leaving Texas under a col/shear zone aloft, augmented by a nearly
stationary trough over the Central Plains. The round of convection
rolling through the area this afternoon was poorly forecast by
the CAMs, and WV imagery shows plenty of perturbations approaching
the region in northwest flow aloft. What`s more, residual
boundaries are knocking about, making the forecast for the next 36
hours or so messy. Depending on how much falls where in the next
18 hours, the flood watch may need to be extended. 12Z KMAF RAOB
came in w/a PWAT of only 1.30", which is just over the 75th
percentile, but this has probably increased by a bit w/the recent
rounds of convection. KMAF radar bias is currently averaging ~ 1.4
in tropical mode, so locally heavy rainfall potential remains.
While mesoanalysis and CAMs depict mid-lvl lapse rates along and
west of the Pecos supportive of large hail, deep-layer shear is
non-existent, and forecast to remain tepid. W/this in mind, and
current activity showing lacking vertical ambition, severe wx is
not anticipated.

Rainfall, saturated soils, and varying degrees of cloud cover
will play hob w/temperatures over the next couple of days, but it
at least points to cooler weather than is normally present in mid
July. NBM puts overnight lows very close to normal, if not a
degree above. Looking at expected dewpoints, and the absence of
the LLJ, this seems reasonable. Highs Sunday look to struggle to
get out of the 80s, crossing into the 90s only along the river
valleys. The LLJ is forecast to redevelop Sunday night, albeit
weakly, so Sunday night lows may be a degree or two warmer than
tonight`s.

NBM wind speeds throughout the extended are too low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Monday morning and early afternoon, a medium to high probability
of showers and storms develops from Permian Basin into Presidio
Valley. Highest reach medium to high range, then decrease to low
to medium range into Monday night northeast of Davis Mountains,
while medium probabilities persist over the Davis Mountains and
Presidio Valley overnight. Broken to overcast cloud cover and
evaporational cooling from rainfall in near surface layer limits
daytime warming, keeping high temperatures below average. Most
locations reach the low to mid 80s, while higher elevations of
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains into Lower Trans Pecos see upper 70s
to lower 80s. Rio Grande, southern Permian Basin, and Upper Trans
Pecos experience upper 80s to mid 90s. Continued cloud cover and
dew point temperatures in the 60s F limit overnight cooling,
yielding lows in mid 60s to lower 70s F, mid 60s F for higher
elevations Monday night.

After Monday, a warmer and drier pattern develops. High
temperatures remain seasonable. Mid to upper ridging and
associated subsidence from the southeastern US expand west, but do
not become overly strong. This decreases daytime rain chances
over central and eastern Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau to
low to medium range, with rain chances decreasing each day.
However, a low to medium probability of rain persists each day
over SE NM plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, Big Bend,
and points southwest. Highest probabilities 40% to 60% occur from
Guadalupes into Davis Mountains and Presidio Valley each
afternoon. WPC Surface Analysis depicts surface lee troughing
across eastern NM into W TX as front bypass the area to the north,
maintaining humid, upslope southeast winds and dew point
temperatures in the mid to upper 60s F, or upper 50s to lower 60s
F in western higher terrain. These conditions continue to provide
moisture and convergence for shower and storm development with
daytime heating. However, mean tropospheric shear remains low,
with a high probability of staying below 20 knots, limiting storm
organization and longevity. Therefore, severe weather is not
anticipated. The primary risks with showers and storms next week
are heavy rain/flash flooding, gusty winds, and small hail.
Rainfall up to a few tenths of an inch are forecast for all but
easternmost Stockton Plateau into Terrell County. There is a
medium to high probability of up to 1.50" in the Davis Mountains.
Medium to high probabilities of 0.50" to 1.00" across forecast
area by end of next week suggest a widespread rainfall event still
cannot be ruled out, contingent on more local scale wind and
storm interactions as larger scale lift stays weak. Highs warm by
a few degrees daily outside of higher elevations, reaching upper
80s to mid 90s, upper 70s to lower 80s highest elevations, mid to
upper 80s western higher terrain, and mid 90s to triple digits
along Rio Grande. Lows remain in mid 60s to mid 70s. For now
expect a gradually warming and drying trend, but less humid
weather with low rain chances for most of the area may have to
wait until next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours except in areas of
direct convection, the best chances of which will occur in the
first half of the forecast as perturbations move southeast into
the area. Skies will gradually clear after 06Z Sunday, but
forecast soundings develop a widespread, low-based cu field by
late morning Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               69  88  68  88 /  60  40  40  50
Carlsbad                 69  89  68  86 /  30  30  40  40
Dryden                   73  92  73  91 /  30  40  40  40
Fort Stockton            70  91  70  89 /  40  50  40  60
Guadalupe Pass           66  83  64  79 /  20  30  30  50
Hobbs                    66  87  67  86 /  50  20  40  50
Marfa                    63  84  63  81 /  40  60  40  80
Midland Intl Airport     69  87  70  88 /  50  40  50  50
Odessa                   69  86  69  87 /  40  40  50  50
Wink                     69  89  69  88 /  50  30  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Andrews-Borden-Central
     Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern
     Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves
     County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea-Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-
     Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99