804
FXUS64 KMAF 261123
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

- Shower/thunderstorm chances will continue today. Best chances
  (30-50%) are in the Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and portions
  of the Big Bend with 10-20% chances elsewhere. Localized flash
  flooding, gusty winds, and frequent lightning are the main
  concerns.

- Storm chances will mainly become confined over areas west of the
  Pecos and in the higher terrain this weekend into early next
  week.

- Temperatures will average near to slightly above normal
  through the extended forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level ridge centered over the
southeastern CONUS and an inverted trough situated over far south-
central Texas. This trough is forecast to move westward into west
Texas/southeast New Mexico Saturday, collocated with a surface
trough extending from southeast New Mexico to the Big Bend.
Southeasterly upslope flow in addition to abundant moisture and
instability along the aforementioned features warrant raising PoPs
(30-40%) over/near the Davis Mountains. Have also opted to increase
PoPs to mentionable (10-20%) elsewhere across the CWA to account for
the possibility of showers/thunderstorms and uncertainty. Some
storms will be capable of producing frequent lighting, strong winds,
and localized flash flooding due to brief heavy downpours as
forecast soundings show "inverted-V" profiles and PWATS of around
1.35". Afternoon highs remain in the mid to upper 90s for most
(mid to upper 80s in higher terrain) with some spots along the Rio
Grande and Trans Pecos possibly reaching the century mark.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to dwindle down
Saturday night, but PoPs still remain around 20% for the Davis
Mountains and 10% elsewhere until about 03Z (10PM CDT). Overnight
lows stay around normal (73 F at Midland International Air and Space
Port) with 60s mostly confined to the higher terrain.

The aforementioned inverted trough moves further overhead Sunday and
southeasterly upslope flow continues to bring in plentiful moisture.
This should provide enough instability to bring in more chances of
showers/thunderstorms (10-40%) to the Davis Mountains and Big Bend
region. Frequent lightning, gusty winds, and localized flash
flooding due to brief heavy downpours are possible once again with
any storms that develop Sunday afternoon. Continued moist advection
in the mid to upper levels of the troposphere are expected to
decrease daytime insolation as increased cloud cover shaves 4-5
degrees off of Sunday afternoon`s high.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

The upper-level ridge of high pressure will continue to build and
expand westward over the central and southern Plains through the
early part of next week. The plume of higher quality deep layer
moisture will shift westward across western portions of our
forecast area Monday and Tuesday, where isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop again both days. We will keep POPs in the 20-40 percent
chance range over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, the Eddy
County Plains/Van Horn Corridor, Marfa Plateau, and Big Bend
region Monday and Tuesday. Dry weather conditions are forecast
across the rest of southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and
most of the Trans Pecos region both days as subsidence increases
underneath the expanding upper-level ridge axis. High temperatures
will continue to range in the 90s across much of the forecast area
Monday and Tuesday, except for readings in the mid to upper 80s in
the higher terrain and up to 100-105 degrees along the Rio Grande.

Ensemble and operational medium range guidance remains in good
agreement with bringing the center of the upper-level ridge of
high pressure near the vicinity of west Texas and southeast New
Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. Hot and dry weather conditions
should prevail over the majority of our CWA both days underneath
this feature, though an isolated shower/storm or two could still
develop over the higher terrain. Upper ridging should remain
ensconced over the region into Friday, though weak impulses
embedded in the ridging and a slight increase in moisture may
result in isolated shower/thunderstorm development across the
region by Friday afternoon, particularly favored over the
mountains. High temperatures are forecast to range in the mid 90s
to around 102 degrees over most of the area, expect upper 80s in
the mountains and between 102-107 degrees along the Rio Grande
Wednesday through Friday. Early morning lows will continue to
range in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals. Southeasterly winds
generally under 10kts are forecast throughout the period. However,
winds are expected to pick up some Saturday afternoon. There is a
slight chance of isolated showers and storms (~10%) Saturday
afternoon through early evening, but have left out of TAFs due to
low coverage and uncertainty.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               98  75  93  73 /  10  10  10   0
Carlsbad                 98  73  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
Dryden                   98  74  93  74 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            98  73  92  72 /  20  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           90  69  87  67 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                    96  71  92  70 /  20  10  10   0
Marfa                    89  63  87  63 /  50  20  30  10
Midland Intl Airport     98  74  93  73 /  10  10  10   0
Odessa                   96  74  91  73 /  10  10  10   0
Wink                     98  73  93  73 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...55