998
FXUS64 KMAF 041909
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
209 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 152 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

- Low rain chances return Sunday (10-30%, up to 50% in the Davis
  Mountains).

- Temperatures gradually warm closer to/above normal through next
  week with mostly dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Mesoscale Analysis this morning depicts the shortwave trough
beginning to move off to the north and east of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico. Meanwhile, the remnants of Tropical Storm
Barry are currently moving off to the east into Central Texas, where
a lot of very impactful flooding is ongoing. For our area, after a
very active and wet week, we are going to catch a bit of a break
today. Some isolated to scattered showers (and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two) remain possible in the Davis Mountains, Big
Bend, and eastern Permian Basin (the product of moist upslope
flow plus some convergence from a very weak boundary/wind shift
associated with the trough axis). These areas have a 10-40% chance
of seeing additional rainfall this afternoon and early evening.
Nevertheless, most locations will remain dry this afternoon and
evening, which is great news for any 4th of July celebrations!
However, highs today are expected to be seasonably warm (90s and
upper 80s). This, coupled with continued anomalously high
atmospheric moisture, means a very muggy day is in store across
the region. That being the case, be sure to stay hydrated and cool
off if you get too hot! Otherwise, what rain chances there are
drop off pretty quick after sunset, and lows tonight will bottom
out in the upper 60s and low 70s for most. Some patchy fog may
once again develop over the northern Permian Basin tonight as
well.

Saturday, ridging starts to build in from the west. This will help
limit cloud cover and cause highs to rebound back into the mid to
upper 90s. Lows similar to that of tonight are also expected. Some
(at least low) rain chances begin to reappear going into the long
term.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

While the extended looks much drier than what we`ve seen as of late,
there will still be opportunities for rain across the area. One of
those opportunities will be Sunday as ridging aloft weakens allowing
an inverted trough to approach the region from the east. Scattered
(20-40%) showers and storms are expected to develop by afternoon
with highest coverage over the mountains. With the added clouds,
high temperatures will fall back below average to the upper 80s and
low 90s.

Monday looks similar before ridging re-strengthens over the Desert
SW midweek. This will signal a return to a more typical July pattern
with temperatures back in the mid to upper 90s and precipitation
chances confined mostly to the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period, save perhaps some
temporary dips to MVFR at MAF for the next hour or so (though
confidence was too low to include a TEMPO). Light winds are shifting
northerly/northwesterly across the region, but by this evening will
generally shift back to a southeasterly direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  95  72  90 /  10  10  10  30
Carlsbad                 71  98  71  91 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                   72  95  73  91 /  10   0   0  20
Fort Stockton            73  98  71  91 /   0   0   0  30
Guadalupe Pass           70  91  67  85 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                    68  94  70  90 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                    64  92  65  87 /   0  10   0  40
Midland Intl Airport     73  96  72  90 /  10   0  10  20
Odessa                   71  96  71  90 /  10   0  10  20
Wink                     70  98  72  91 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...13