645
FXUS64 KMAF 062324
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
624 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- A cold front moving through the area this afternoon will bring
  below-normal temperatures to the area Thursday.

- An upper-level storm system will bring a low (10-30 percent)
  chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Davis Mountains and
  Trans Pecos on Friday.

- Above normal temperatures expected this weekend into early next
  week. Tuesday should be the warmest day this forecast as highs
  average over 10 F above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Current satellite imagery and observations show the cold front
stalling along the higher terrain of the Davis to Guadalupe
Mountains. Southwesterly flow aloft has kept a thick of high cloud
cover over portions of west Texas throughout the morning. Latest
trends have suggest this deck of clouds will thin out by the
afternoon, resulting in temperatures rising into the 70s to low 80s
for most locations. An upper-level jet streak is also prevalent over
the region bringing the possibility of brief high winds across the
Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon through tonight. A surface high
pressure begins to build in from the Rockies supplying cooler
temperatures for tonight. Lows are expected to range from the upper
30s to low 50s for most locations, except for areas along the Rio
Grande and Presidio Valley spanning in the 60s to low 70s. Breezy
winds are expected overnight into Thursday morning due to a
reinforcing cold front. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move
across the region bringing a low (10-30%) chance of storms over the
Stockton Plateau. Storms look to remain non-severe, though hail up
to the size of nickels and damaging winds may occur with the
strongest storm.

Thursday, the aforementioned high pressure makes its way into west
Texas providing cool temperatures for early May in the upper 60s and
70s. Subtle upper-level ridging allows for partly to mainly clear
skies during the afternoon. Thursday night, high cloud cover
develops over portions of the region as an upper-level low
approaches from the west. As a result, warmer lows are forecast in
the upper 40s to low 60s regionwide. This system looks to bring
increased rain chances late in the week. See the long-term
discussion for more details!

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to be just southwest of El
Paso, and will move through West Texas during the afternoon and
evening, resulting in a chance of convection in the Davis
Mountains/lower Trans Pecos.  A slight chance of convection will
also be possible in the lower Trans Pecos Saturday afternoon on the
tail-end of the trough.  Despite the trough, thicknesses will be on
the increase, combining with return flow to add ~ 8-9 F to
Thursday`s highs.

An upper-level ridge follows the exiting trough, resulting in
generally dry, northwest flow aloft.  This will keep highs each day
at or above normal Saturday through midweek of next week, despite a
weak, dry, cold front Sunday.  Tuesday/Wednesday round out the
extended w/some of the warmest temperatures this forecast.  Attm,
temperatures this forecast look to peak on Tuesday afternoon at over
10 F above average.  The extended stays dry beyond Saturday except
for Wednesday afternoon, when long-range models suggest a little
convection in the Davis Mountains. Otherwise, grids stay dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR remains at all terminals. Cold front passes through the region
between 6-9z tonight shifting winds out of the north and
northeast. Post-frontal wind gusts begin to decay by mid-morning
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               48  76  56  84 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                 48  77  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   59  73  60  87 /  10  20   0  10
Fort Stockton            54  75  57  87 /   0   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass           48  69  53  78 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                    44  75  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    47  77  47  81 /   0  10   0  30
Midland Intl Airport     50  75  57  84 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                   50  75  57  84 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                     51  76  56  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...93