256
FXUS64 KMAF 211842
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
142 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 131 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- Rain chances persist in the forecast through this evening in/
  near the higher terrain. Localized flash flooding remains of
  concern in the event of heavy rainfall.

- Hot and mostly dry weather returns Wednesday onward, with
  increasing coverage of triple digit highs. Persistent heat will
  present an increased risk of heat-related illnesses.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Upper-level ridging begins to build back into west Texas and
southeast New Mexico today. This ridge will be the dominate
influence on our weather for at least the next several days. Highs
tick up today relative to yesterday. Most locations top out in the
mid-to-upper 90s, with some 100s along the Rio Grande. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are once again expected to develop in the
western higher terrain this afternoon and evening (20-40% chances).
Similar to yesterday, the biggest concern with storms that develop
would be heavy rain leading to some flash flooding. Cloud cover and
rain chances keep highs in the 80s and low 90s for locations in and
around the higher terrain today. Overnight lows in the low-to-mid
70s will be commonplace (low-to-mid 60s in the mountains).
Temperatures tick up again Wednesday as the ridge continues to
build. Highs near or just above 100 degrees are forecast across the
area Wednesday (low 90s in/near the higher terrain). In fact, KMAF
has about a 75% chances of hitting 100 degrees tomorrow, which would
be the first time since July 4th. Overnight lows Wednesday likewise
trend up a couple of degrees relative to tonight`s. Subsidence from
the ridge largely limits rain chances tomorrow, though a couple of
isolated showers and storms may still develop in the higher terrain
thanks to upslope flow.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

An expansive upper-level ridge will dominate the region, sustaining
hot and primarily dry conditions throughout the forecast period. By
Friday, the ridge axis will shift briefly toward the Four Corners,
allowing weak northerly flow aloft to potentially steer mountain-
initiated convection from New Mexico into the northwestern portion
of the area. Otherwise, dry conditions will persist for the next
seven days.

Widespread triple-digit temperatures are expected, with most areas
reaching 100-105F throughout the week and into the weekend. Extreme
heat, with peak temperatures of 110-115F, will be concentrated
across the Big Bend and Rio Grande Valley during this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop near PEQ, CNM, and FST this afternoon, so
have included PROB30s at these sites for -TSRA. Otherwise, light
southeasterly to southerly winds persist at all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73 101  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 74  99  74 101 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   74 100  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            71  98  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           68  89  69  92 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                    71  99  73 100 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    63  91  62  92 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     73  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   73  99  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     73 100  75 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...13