604
FXUS64 KMAF 051306 CCA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
806 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

...Corrected AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 513 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

- Cooler temperatures and increasing chances of rain are expected
  today through the weekend, with the greatest chances (30-60
  percent) anticipated Saturday night into Sunday.

- Warmer temperatures and drier conditions are forecast during the
  early to middle part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

WV imagery this morning shows a very messy pattern over the
southwestern CONUS and Mexico.  T.S. Lorena is in the Gulf of
California, displacing the upper ridge to the southeast, with plenty
of mid/high cloud coming off Lorena and streaming across West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico.

This increased cloud cover will play hob with temperatures today,
with most locations struggling to reach 90 F, a welcome respite for
those who prefer cooler weather as most places come in a couple of
degrees below normal.  KMAF RAOB came in w/a paltry PWAT of 0.74",
which is just over the 10th percentile.  This will change
significantly over the next 48 hours as tropical moisture advects
into the region and soundings saturate top-down.  Area radars show -
SHRA invof El Paso and areas southwest this morning, and this
activity could start developing into our higher terrain later this
morning as remnants of Lorena move ENE towards the region.
Convective chances increase to the east this afternoon.

Tonight, a cold front will begin intruding upon West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, w/the latest NAM taking it as far as the Pecos
by 09Z Saturday.  This front will brrrring some of the coolest
temperatures since early June to the area, dropping overnight lows
to within a degree or so of normal.  Rain chances will increase
along this feature, mainly from the Davis Mountains through the
Stockton Plateau/lower Trans Pecos.

Saturday looks to be the coldest day this forecast, due to CAA
behind the front, plenty of cloud cover, and increased chances of
rain.  Highs will struggle to come in ~ 7-9 F below normal.  Best
chances for convection will remain along the front to the south.

Unfortunately, despite increased rain chances, QPF looks rather
tepid for this event.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

By Saturday night, winds behind the front will have shifted more
easterly to southeasterly as broad high pressure takes over. A
further southeasterly to almost southerly direction to the winds on
SUnday denotes a return flow. Despite the abundant moisture, rain
chances decrease as upper level support for scattered convection is
replaced with the building ridge`s subsidence. Rain chances Sunday
drop from 30-50% for many to just 10-20% for areas east of
Midland/Odessa on Monday. Guidance continues to show around a
quarter inch of rain or so for areas south of I-10 through the
weekend and into early next week. A few spots might see slightly
more than this, but not many.

Temperatures will be well below normal for Sunday with many spots in
the mid 80s. Only the low desert of Big Bend reaching into the 90s.
The aforementioned ridge strengthens and move over Texas. Daytime
highs move back above normal into the low to mid 90s for most. 80s
hang on across the higher terrain. Overnight lows settle into the
60s for most.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Winds will be variable
today, but generally southwest, before veering this afternoon to
the west-northwest as a cold front approaches, and finally to the
northeast as the front moves through overnight. Plenty of mid/high
cloud is expected from T.S. Lorena. Convection is possible, but
chances are too low or too far out for a mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               90  61  77  62 /  20  20  20  20
Carlsbad                 81  65  82  64 /  20  20  30  30
Dryden                   95  73  86  70 /  10  30  40  40
Fort Stockton            87  67  83  66 /  20  30  40  30
Guadalupe Pass           72  59  75  61 /  30  20  50  40
Hobbs                    82  60  78  61 /  20  20  30  20
Marfa                    77  60  79  59 /  30  30  50  30
Midland Intl Airport     89  64  79  65 /  20  20  30  30
Odessa                   87  63  78  64 /  20  20  30  30
Wink                     85  65  82  64 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...99