175
FXUS64 KMAF 250009
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
609 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 558 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

 - A cold front will move into the area Monday and Monday night,
   bringing much cooler temperatures.

 - Warming trend Tuesday into Wednesday, with temperatures a few degrees
   above average Tuesday and up to 15 degrees above average
   Tuesday night and Wednesday

 - Cold front Wednesday night into Thursday, with temperatures
   only a few degrees above average Wednesday night, below
   average Thursday through Friday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 558 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Mesonet and RAWS observations indicate that westerly winds are
slowly coming down across the Guadalupe Mountains late this
afternoon. Winds have not recently gusted over 60 mph, so we
have allowed the High Wind Warning to expire. Westerly winds will
still remain sustained up to 30-40 mph with a few gusts around 50
mph through the evening.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 240 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Westerly flow aloft continues to increase across west Texas and
southeastern New Mexico this afternoon ahead of a mid and upper-
level wind speed maxima crossing the Four Corners region into the
Rocky Mountains. A well defined mountain wave signature has
developed along the southern periphery of this feature this
afternoon, and the subsequent forcing of stronger mid-level winds
(700 mb wind speeds of 35-45 knots) have resulted in high winds in
the Guadalupe Mountains through much of the morning, with peak
gusts of 67 mph noted at the Pine Springs TTU mesonet site, 63 mph
at the Bowl RAWS site, and 60 mph at the Pinery RAWS site. Winds
are still very gusty over the Guadalupe Mountains early this
afternoon, but have come down slightly since this morning with
recent gusts more in the 45-55 mph range. There is still some
signal in the guidance that wind speeds could ramp up again later
this afternoon into early this evening, so will maintain the High
Wind Warning until 5 PM MST (6 PM CST) and monitor observational
trends. Otherwise, very warm and breezy conditions will prevail
across southeast NM, the Upper Trans Pecos, and the Permian Basin
through the remainder of the afternoon with speeds up of 15-25 mph
and some gusts over 35 mph at times. Temperatures have warmed to
near record levels early this afternoon. We are currently at 80
degrees at KMAF. The record high for November 24th is 83 degrees
set in 1965 and 1946.

Winds should decrease in speed around or shortly after sunset.
Periods of high level cirrus will stream over the region tonight.
Overnight lows are forecast to range in the mid 40s to mid 50s
over most of the region.

A shortwave trough will move from the Rockies into the
central/southern Plains tonight and will send a cold front
southward into northern portions of our area late Monday morning.
The boundary will push through much of the remainder of the region
Monday afternoon into Monday evening. We expect much cooler
temperatures to return behind the front across most of
southeastern NM and the Permian Basin, where highs should only
range from the upper 50s to mid 60s Monday. Temperatures will be
much warmer in the 70s and 80s south of the front. Colder
temperatures return for Monday night, with lows in the 40s across
much of southeast NM, the Permian Basin, and typically colder
areas of the Upper Trans Pecos/Mountains/Marfa Plateau and in the
40s over the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend. Dry conditions
continue Monday and Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

The forecast remains dry despite a continued indication of a cold
front passage later this week. Tuesday into Wednesday, a warming
trend of temperatures occurs as ridging briefly builds in ahead of
the next storm system/trough. Lingering cool air after Monday`s
cold frontal passage will yield highs in the mid to upper 60s and
lower to mid 70s Tuesday, and mid to upper 70s, lower to mid 80s
Wednesday, where NBM has trended a few degrees higher in recent
runs. Lows Tuesday night will be warmer than Monday everywhere and
fall into mostly mid 40s to mid 50s.

Wednesday, winds have been increased from 12Z-03Z when boundary
layer mixing from daytime heating is maximized, with 1:1 blend of
NBM 90th percentile and CONSMOS. This is to account for 700-500 mb
jet streak at base of approaching trough brushing the northern
portions of the area from SE NM plains, Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains, and surrounding foothills. Sustained wind speeds above
20 mph and wind gusts to 35 mph for most of the area, 40 mph or
higher Eddy County and northern Culberson County as well as Davis
Mountains are indicated in grids. We will monitor the situation to
see how trends in wind speeds and gusts progress. Wednesday
night, a cold front associated with this trough is still on track
to move south through the area, with lows ranging from mid 30s
northern and central Lea County into northern Permian Basin and
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, lower to mid 40s north of the Rio
Grande basins, and mid 40s to lower 50s in the Rio Grande basins.
Northerly winds behind the front Thursday keep highs below normal
for late November, mid 50s SE NM plains, most of Permian Basin,
Guadalupes into Davis Mountains, lower to mid 60s outside of 70s
Rio Grande basins. We still are seeing below freezing temperatures
over northern into eastern Permian Basin Thursday night. As these
regions have not seen below freezing temperatures so far this
autumn, we are continuing to monitor this region for a potential
freeze warning Thursday night. Temperatures remain below normal
Friday despite northerly winds veering to easterly and then
southerly, but temperatures begin a warming trend from Friday
night into next Saturday as the troughing pattern again becomes
more zonal in deterministic and ensemble models. Another cold
front Saturday night leads to below normal temperatures once again
Saturday night and Sunday, but at this time there is still some
uncertainty about magnitude and timing of CAA behind this front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR will prevail across the region through Monday afternoon.
Westerly winds may remain a little breezy between 15-20 kt with
gusts up to 30 kt for the next hour or two at KCNM and KINK, but
should otherwise become southwesterly and diminish to around 10 kt
this evening. Winds will turn northwesterly overnight into early
Monday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds become
northeasterly at 10-15 kt with a few higher gusts across most area
terminals following frontal passage between 15-18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               49  61  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 52  69  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   52  83  44  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            56  76  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           50  65  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    47  62  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    41  74  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     51  65  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   52  67  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     49  71  38  67 /   0   0   0   0


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...21