187
FXUS64 KMAF 101806
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
106 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 106 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

- Last day of very hot temperatures in the upper 90s to lower
  100s today with a low to moderate (10-40%) chance of
  thunderstorms from southeastern New Mexico to the Davis
  Mountains this afternoon/evening.

- A weak frontal system brings cooler, near normal temperatures
  with afternoon and evening thunderstorms chances (10-50%)
  through the middle of the week.

- Temperatures begin to climb back above normal as thunderstorms
  become largely confined to near the Davis and Guadalupe
  Mountains by the latter half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Water vapor imagery shows an upper high across the U.S./Mexico
border, extending into southeast New mexico/west Texas. An upper-
level trough is also evident over the northern/central Plains
region. Today will be the last day of above normal temperatures
(highs in the upper 90s to low triple digits) as the aforementioned
trough brings a weak cold front into northwestern portions of our
forecast area (southeast New Mexico and the northwestern Permian
Basin) this afternoon. Sufficient daytime heating along the front
will destabilize the atmosphere enough to foster the development of
isolated to scattered (10-40% coverage) showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures return to normal (96 F at Midland International Air and
Space Port) Monday as lower heights are expected to move into the
area. This will allow for increased moisture advection from the Gulf
and bring an increase in shower/thunderstorm coverage (20-50%)
during the afternoon/evening. However, thunderstorms are not
expected to become severe at this time.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Rain chances (20-50%) continue Tuesday, making Tuesday perhaps the
coolest day of next week. Temperatures begin to increase again
Wednesday and Thursday as the upper-level ridge begins to build east
into southeast New Mexico and west Texas, decreasing rain chances
(10-40%) by late next week. However, chances of rain (20-50%)
continue midweek across the western high terrain (highest chances
in/around the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains) as southeasterly
upslope flow to the east of a surface low/trough provide forcing for
ascent. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the upper 60s to low
70s for most each night in the extended.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals. Breezy southeasterly to
southerly winds are expected to this afternoon into early evening.
Thunderstorm development is forecast to develop across southeast New
Mexico around 20Z, which may impact CNM and HOB. There is still some
uncertainty in the coverage and positioning of storms. As such, have
opted to include -TSRA PROB30 for CNM and HOB. There will be
additional chances of showers/storms Monday afternoon as well, but
have left out of TAFs for now due to uncertainty in the positioning
and timing of the activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74  96  70  93 /   0  20  30  30
Carlsbad                 71  96  68  92 /  30  20  30  30
Dryden                   73  98  73  97 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            72  97  71  96 /   0  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           68  88  66  86 /  30  30  30  30
Hobbs                    69  94  66  90 /  20  30  30  40
Marfa                    62  90  62  88 /   0  30  10  40
Midland Intl Airport     75  96  71  93 /  10  20  30  30
Odessa                   74  96  70  92 /  10  20  30  30
Wink                     73  96  71  94 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55