911
FXUS64 KMAF 131133
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
633 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 631 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

- Continued shower/thunderstorm chances today, mainly in/near the
  higher terrain (40-60% there, 10-40% elsewhere). Rain chances
  Monday look similar to those of today. Localized flash flooding
  remains possible.

- Gradual warming and drying trend after Monday, but with
  persistent rain chances southwest and west of Permian Basin and
  temperatures remaining seasonable into end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Mid-level ridging continues over the southwestern and southeastern
CONUS. In the middle of these two features, troughing is evident
over the plains, extending down into south-central Texas. Here in
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, we remain more or less wedged
between the western ridge and the trough (which is just east of our
area), with northerly mid-level flow over the region. What this
means for us is that the better synoptic scale forcing has been
displaced further to the east, which translates to generally lower
rain chances today than previously forecast. Convective-allowing
models do still generate showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening, but these will be driven primarily by upslope flow,
outflow boundaries, and any disturbances in the flow aloft (in other
words, forcing will be more localized and otherwise weaker in
general). As a result, the best rain chances today are for the Davis
Mountains down towards the Big Bend (40-60%). Meanwhile, chances in
Southeast New Mexico and far West Texas are in the 20-40% range,
while eastern portions of our area have a 10-30% chance. Because the
expected coverage of shower/storm activity will be less than
previously forecast (and because yesterday afternoon/evening
remained mostly dry), the Flash Flood Watch will expire at 12Z this
morning and will not be reissued. However, we will still be keeping
a close eye on localized flash flooding potential, especially
in/around the higher terrain.

A similar story unfolds Monday afternoon/evening, where the best
rain chances will be in the higher terrain (50-80%), while the
remainder of the region will have a 20-40% chance of
showers/thunderstorms. Otherwise, highs remain 5-8 degrees below
normal for this time of year (upper 80s and low 90s areawide), while
lows remain closer to normal (upper 60s and low 70s).

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Overall rain chances begin to decrease across the Permian Basin and
Stockton Plateau heading into the middle of the coming week. Weak
upper level ridging begins to take hold over the southern US and
subsidence will keep the higher rain chances over the western half
of the CWA. Best chances each day will remain over the Davis
Mountains and portions of southeast NM. Nailing down location and
timing of precipitation will be done in the short term as the next
day`s convection will be somewhat dependent on how the previous
day`s activity evolved. Highs will gradually move towards normal by
the end of the week with most locations reaching into the mid 90s
and upper 80s in the higher elevations. Overnight lows stay near or
just above normal in the upper 60s to low 70s as low level moisture
stays in place.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR conditions prevail, besides temporary reductions to MVFR at MAF
due to BR this morning. Light winds generally out of the
east/southeast expected through the period. Some showers/storms are
possible later today, but have decided to leave mention out of the
TAF for now due to continued uncertainty over spatial coverage
(right now it looks like most activity will be in the higher
terrain, mainly south and west of any terminals).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               88  69  89  70 /  20  20  30  10
Carlsbad                 90  68  87  69 /  20  40  30  10
Dryden                   91  73  90  73 /  30  30  40  20
Fort Stockton            91  69  90  70 /  30  10  50  20
Guadalupe Pass           83  64  81  65 /  40  20  40  10
Hobbs                    88  66  87  68 /  30  30  30  10
Marfa                    84  63  81  63 /  60  20  80  30
Midland Intl Airport     89  69  88  71 /  10  20  30  20
Odessa                   88  69  88  70 /  10  20  30  20
Wink                     90  69  89  70 /  30  30  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning for Andrews-
     Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-
     Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-
     Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-
     Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for Central Lea-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...13