571
FNUS74 KLZK 021123
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for SYL-Advance Wildfire...U.S.Forest Service
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
623 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 CDT on April 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (800) 482-8471 and ask for the fire
weather forecaster if you have any questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Severe Weather Timing:

Wednesday late morning at 11 AM CDT to Wednesday early afternoon 2
PM CDT. All hazards are possible large hail (up to baseball sized
hail), damaging wind gusts (60-80+ mph), and a few tornadoes are
likely (some may be long track and violent). Additionally, any
thunderstorm will contain frequent lightning and heavy rainfall
which may lead to dangerous outdoor conditions and flash flooding.

.TODAY...

Max temperature.....73 at forecast start...Max 77.
Min humidity........71 percent at forecast start...Min 66 percent.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Transport winds.....South 25 to 33 mph shifting to the southwest 22
                    to 25 mph late in the afternoon.
Stability class.....4.
LVORI...............3 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain likely in
                    the morning. Chance of thunderstorms through
                    the day. Rain in the afternoon.
Dispersion..........51 increasing to 68 in the late morning and
                    early afternoon, then decreasing to 58 late in
                    the afternoon.
Rainfall amount.....0.36 inches.
Pcpn amount.........0.36 inches.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 2600 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 3307 ft MSL.
Category Day........4.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  CDY MC  CDY CDY CDY MC
Weather cov.....        SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY DEF LKY CHC CHC
Weather type....        RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............73  72  72  71  74  75  76  74  74  73  73  73
RH..............71  73  76  79  71  71  66  71  69  71  68  66
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..13  13  13  13  12  12  12  12  12  12  10  8
20 FT wind gust.25  25  26  26  25  25  24  22  22  21  20  18
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.25  26  29  31  32  33  35  33  31  29  25  22
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  20  40  50  60  60  60  90  70  50  50

.TONIGHT...

Min temperature.....Min 55.
Max humidity........Max 83 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph shifting to the west 7
                    to 9 mph overnight, then shifting to the north
                    around 6 mph after 3 am.
Stability class.....6.
LVORI...............3.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    and thunderstorms.
Dispersion..........24 decreasing to 6 in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Rainfall amount.....0.08 inches.
Pcpn amount.........0.08 inches.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 1000 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 1674 ft MSL.
Category Day........2.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC                         SCH SCH CHC
Weather type....RN  RN  RN                          RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC                         CHC CHC CHC
Temp............73  72  70  69  67  66  65  63  62  61  60  58
RH..............66  66  71  73  73  73  73  72  75  75  75  80
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   W   E   SE
20 FT wind spd..8   7   6   5   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.17  16  14  12  10  8   6   6   6   6   6   6
Transp wind dir.S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   NW  N   N   N
Transp wind spd.18  15  14  13  13  12  9   8   7   6   6   6
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  30  10  0   0   10  10  10  20  20  40

.THURSDAY...

Max temperature.....Max 65.
Min humidity........Min 65 percent.
Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 16 mph increasing to 18 to 21 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Stability class.....3.
LVORI...............3 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    early in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms
                    through the day. Rain.
Dispersion..........10 increasing to 38.
Rainfall amount.....0.45 inches.
Pcpn amount.........0.45 inches.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 2100 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 2838 ft MSL.
Category Day........3.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............57  57  56  57  60  61  61  62  62  62  63  62
RH..............80  80  83  83  75  70  70  65  65  67  65  67
20 FT wind dir..E   NE  E   NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   3   5   5   6   6   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   8   10  10  12  13  13  14  14  14
Transp wind dir.NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.7   8   10  14  16  16  16  16  18  20  21  18
Chc of pcpn (%).40  80  80  80  80  80  80  100 100 100 100 100

$$
Forecaster...C POPE
Requested by...Incident Commander
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2508673.0/LZK
.DELDT 04/02/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jacob.patrick@usda.gov,casey.galloway@usda.gov