Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
653
FNUS74 KLZK 252318
FWSLZK
Spot Forecast for FY25 BUFF Beaver Jim BIL...NPS
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
518 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CST on November 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office at (800) 482-8471 and ask for the fire
weather forecaster if you have any questions or concerns with
this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures at ignition will likely be below freezing and remain
until around 9AM CST. Surface winds at ignition time will be light
and variable (under 5 mph), then after Noon, surface winds will
become established out of the south between 5 to 10 mph.
Temperatures on Tuesday will top out in the mid 50s Tuesday
afternoon. Into Tuesday evening, around 7PM CST, surface winds
will remain out of the south at 5 to 10 mph, but surface winds
will begin to gust between 15 to 20 mph through Tuesday night into
the day on Wednesday.
.TUESDAY...
Max temperature.....28 at ignition...Max 56.
Min humidity........75 percent at ignition...Min 31 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 7 mph shifting to the south 9 to 12
mph late in the afternoon.
Stability class.....5.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Dispersion..........12 increasing to 24 in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
1700 Ft Mix Temp....50.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 3809 ft MSL.
Category Day........3.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 2600 ft AGL.
TIME (CST) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR CLR MCR CLR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............28 30 36 42 48 53 54 54 55 53 49
RH..............75 72 59 48 39 32 32 32 31 35 40
20 FT wind dir..N E E E SE SE SE S S S S
20 FT wind spd..1 1 2 2 2 3 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.2 4 5 6 7 10 10 10 11 11 11
Transp wind dir.NE E E E SE SE S S S S S
Transp wind spd.6 6 7 8 8 9 10 12 12 10 9
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Min temperature.....Min 39.
Max humidity........Max 82 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 13 mph.
Stability class.....6.
LVORI...............3.
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Dispersion..........9.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
1700 Ft Mix Temp....MISSING.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 2209 ft MSL.
Category Day........1.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 1000 ft AGL.
TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MCR PC PC MC MC PC PC PC PC MC MC MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............45 42 41 41 41 41 40 40 40 39 40 41
RH..............47 53 55 59 59 62 67 70 70 76 76 79
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.11 12 14 14 14 14 13 14 14 14 14 14
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.8 9 10 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
.WEDNESDAY...
Max temperature.....Max 61.
Min humidity........Min 62 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 16 mph shifting to the west 9
to 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Stability class.....4.
LVORI...............3 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Dispersion..........29.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
1700 Ft Mix Temp....57.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4394 ft MSL.
Category Day........3.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 3200 ft AGL.
TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............41 44 45 47 50 54 58 58 59 60 57 55
RH..............82 79 82 83 80 71 67 67 64 62 67 72
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S SW SW W W NW
20 FT wind spd..5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5
20 FT wind gust.14 14 16 16 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13
Transp wind dir.S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW W NW
Transp wind spd.12 13 15 16 16 16 15 14 13 12 10 9
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
$$
Forecaster...C POPE
Requested by...Hampton
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2427342.0/LZK
.DELDT 11/26/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL josh_hampton@nps.gov