Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
766 FXUS64 KLZK 110842 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 342 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 A tightening pressure gradient between high pressure along the Gulf Coast and an incoming cold front just to the north will yield a gusty southwest wind today. With plenty of sunshine, afternoon humidity levels will drop below 25 percent at many locations in northern and western Arkansas. The combination of dry air and breezy conditions will result in an elevated wildfire danger. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued. Otherwise, above average temperatures are in the forecast through the near term. The front to the north will not make it into the region due to ridging to the south. However, we will focus on an incoming storm system to the west. The system will be on our doorstep in the southern Plains Wednesday afternoon. Ahead of the system, moisture levels will increase, and the atmosphere will destabilize. Most unstable CAPE values between 1000 and 1500 Joules/kilogram may build from northeast Texas/southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. This will create a small window of opportunity for isolated severe storms early Wednesday evening in the west. The main concerns will be large hail and strong/damaging wind. Showers/thunderstorms will spread across the region Wednesday night. As the night wears on, chances for severe weather will go down. This will not be a big rain event, with quarter to half inch amounts common and locally higher totals to three quarters of an inch. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Main focus for the long term fcst remains on severe weather potential over a large portion of the FA on Fri as a potent upper level storm system traverses thru the Cntrl US. Not much has changed on current thinking as of the 11/00Z suite of deterministic and ensemble guidance. There is reasonable agreement on the general placement and track of a strong H500 trof and asctd sfc low, w/ only minor and typical variances in magnitudes of these features. A few important factors remain in question for now, including the timing of these features, and the asctd surface moisture return on Fri. Per the 11/00Z GFS/ECMWF solns, the Nwrd extent of sufficient sfc moisture, and timing of how quickly moisture transport occurs is still in moderate disagreement among the global model guidance. GFS progs are indicative of a faster moving sfc low and narrower plume of >60F dewpoints, mainly over the S/Ern and Ern portions of the state by Fri evng. This scenario would lkly hinder the potential for more widespread sfc based convection. Conversely, ECMWF progs have been advertising a slower sfc low movement speed, allowing for greater moisture transport, and >60F dewpoints extending acrs at least the Srn half of the state by Fri evng. This would have some implications on the magnitude and extent of instability acrs the state, but reasonable MUCAPE progs of at least 1000 J/kg are still prevalent over the Ern half of the state thru the aftn to evng due to prominent WAA and broad synoptic lift. It probably goes w/o saying, but this scenario would facilitate better chances for sfc based convection, and a more widespread severe weather threat, from both QLCS segments and discrete warm sector development. Latest blended ensemble mean guidance suggests a middle ground of these solns that could be thought of as a reasonable most lkly outcome. Probabilities of >60F dewpoints were in excess of 30 to 40 percent over at least the S/Ern half of the state, and greater probs towards Ern to S/Ern AR, and this "middle ground" scenario would certainly still foster a favorable environment for severe weather. Details such as possible storm modes are still unclear for now, largely due to the uncertainty surrounding the fcst warm sector, but should become more evident as a better consensus is reached in the mid to short range guidance. For now, the key takeaway remains moderate confidence on the potential for an all-hazards severe weather episode acrs a large portion of the state, and particularly the Ern half of the state, Fri aftn to Fri night. In addition to the severe weather threat, a significant gradient wind event appears possible over much of the Srn Cntrl US, including the greater Arkansas region given the proximity and track of the fcst sfc low. Strong and gusty winds, lkly similar in magnitude (if not greater in some locations) to the recent March 4th wind event wl be possible over much of the state on Fri, and possibly into early Sat mrng. Thru the remainder of the PD (next weekend), drier air is expected to filter into the state in the wake of the departing sfc low. Sfc high pressure should settle in over the Srn Cntrl US, and promote a warm/dry pattern locally w/ settled weather expected. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 A mostly clear sky/VFR conditions will be noted Tuesday/Tuesday evening. The wind will be 10 to 15 knots with 20 to 25 knot and locally higher gusts on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 80 51 77 55 / 0 0 0 70 Camden AR 77 50 78 55 / 0 0 10 70 Harrison AR 78 51 78 52 / 0 0 0 50 Hot Springs AR 75 51 76 54 / 0 0 10 80 Little Rock AR 77 52 78 57 / 0 0 0 80 Monticello AR 77 51 78 59 / 0 0 0 70 Mount Ida AR 76 51 76 52 / 0 0 20 70 Mountain Home AR 80 50 78 53 / 0 0 0 50 Newport AR 77 50 75 57 / 0 0 0 70 Pine Bluff AR 77 52 78 57 / 0 0 0 80 Russellville AR 80 50 79 53 / 0 0 10 70 Searcy AR 78 47 77 54 / 0 0 0 80 Stuttgart AR 76 51 76 57 / 0 0 0 80 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...46 LONG TERM....72 AVIATION...46