360
FXUS64 KLZK 222343
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
643 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Early afternoon visible satellite imagery depicted a mid-to-high
level cloud deck streaming into the state from the plains as
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms push into W and NW AR
from OK. Current temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to upper
80s under light and variable winds.

A quick moving upper level impulse, within background NW flow, is
anticipated to track across the state this afternoon/evening
sustaining shower and thunderstorm chances into the evening hours
across Cntrl into maybe portions of S/SE AR before dissipating.

On Friday, an upper level trough is expected to move a shore along
the W coast of the CONUS. This will spur weak upper ridging over the
Srn CONUS. Despite ridging locally, another weak upper level impulse
is expected to move through the flow, triggering scattered showers
and thunderstorms during the late afternoon through nighttime hours.
At the surface, a weak surface boundary will back into the state
from the NE denoted by forecasted theta E dip in moisture and
falling dew point values via mid-range model guidance.

The weather pattern will become very unsettled over the holiday
weekend, especially Sunday into Monday, with repeated rounds of
showers and thunderstorms thanks to several passing upper level
disturbances in combination with a stalled surface boundary
across the state. Due to antecedent soil conditions in conjunction
with expected upcoming rainfall, instances of flooding, including
flash flooding, will become possible to likely. Owing to this
weekend being Memorial Day weekend and more folks than normal
heading outdoors to enjoy the extended weekend, the flash flood
threat is becoming a greater concern with each forecast cycle. As
such, have opted to issue a flood watch from early Saturday
morning through Monday evening over N and N-Cntrl AR where total
rainfall amounts of 3-6" are possible. Those with outdoor plans
which include recreating on streams, rivers, lakes, or camping at
campsites should pay closer attention to rapidly changing weather
conditions. The configuration of the watch area could change as we
near the event.

Precipitation chances should diminish by Tuesday afternoon as the
upper level trough finally pivots across the Cntrl Plains and
high pressure attempts to moves back into the region from the
Mid-West.

High temperatures will vary quite a bit through the period
characterized by mid/upper 70s on mainly rainy/cloudy days to upper
80s/lower 90s if precipitation and clouds can remain low in coverage
over portions of the state. Lows should range from the mid 50s to
around 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening, but
with exact placement becoming hard to pinpoint did just include
VCSH in most locations. Storm currently over White County is
attached to a outflow boundary that is pushing to the south and if
it holds could reach KLIT around 0130Z and could produce a
wind shift with winds out of the NNW. Otherwise VFR conditions
are forecast for this TAF cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     56  75  59  72 /  10  10  70  80
Camden AR         62  86  68  87 /  20  10  10  20
Harrison AR       52  72  57  71 /  10  40  90  80
Hot Springs AR    62  82  64  84 /  20  10  30  30
Little Rock   AR  61  78  64  80 /  20  10  40  50
Monticello AR     65  86  69  87 /  10   0  10  30
Mount Ida AR      61  82  64  84 /  20  10  30  30
Mountain Home AR  52  73  57  69 /  10  30  90  80
Newport AR        58  75  60  74 /  10  10  70  80
Pine Bluff AR     62  82  65  84 /  20  10  30  30
Russellville AR   60  78  62  78 /  20  10  60  60
Searcy AR         57  76  60  76 /  20  10  60  60
Stuttgart AR      62  78  65  80 /  20  10  40  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from late Friday night through Monday evening for
ARZ004>007-014-015-103-112-113-121>123-203-212-213-221>223-313.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...65