257
FXUS64 KLZK 051943
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
243 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

-Above normal temperatures and increased humidity are expected
 across much of the state through the weekend. Temperatures will
 hovering at or around normal by early next week.

-Frequent chances for rain and thunderstorms with a few strong to
 severe thunderstorms possible.

-Locally heavy rainfall amounts of more than 3 inches possible
 across western/northern Arkansas through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Diurnally driven convection was ongoing across the state on this
Thursday afternoon. Wind shear was minimal despite SB/MUCAPE values
on the order of 3000-3500 J/Kg. These were your run of the mill
garden variety summertime pop up cells. The strongest of storms
could produce brief gusty winds and perhaps pea sized hail.

Temperatures this afternoon were in the mid 80s to lower 90s with
dew point temperatures largely in the lower to mid 70s. Apparent T`s
were in the 90s to near 100 degrees. A few locations were cooler
than this owing to rain cooled air or mostly cloudy skies. This
shower/storm activity should subside in coverage after sunset.

After today, attention turns to an approaching system from the W and
NW. By Friday morning, upper level energy should traverse the state
from the WNW. Hi-res cam guidance suggests a potential MCS
developing over SE KS/NE OK/SW MO regions and quickly barreling
SEwrd. This system would likely follow the instability axis
between rain cooled air over Nrn AR today with warm unstable air
lifting Nwrd from the gulf which was already in place over much of
Cntrl and all of Srn AR. Strong to severe wind gusts would be the
primary threat with a secondary concern being large hail.
Guidance has consistently hinted towards the complex weakening as
it moves towards Cntrl AR by late-morning. This weakening would
make sense due to expected time of arrival when instability is
near the daily minimum. We will need to watch closely how far this
system progresses into the state before weakening.

Another round of showers and storms will be possible late Friday
night into Saturday morning associated with another piece of upper
level energy moving across the region within background WNW flow.
Again, damaging winds would be the primary hazard followed by large
hail. On and off showers/storms will be possible on Saturday and
Saturday afternoon following the morning convection as an active
upper stream remains in place. By the end of the period, upper
flow should become more NWrly, however unsettled weather is
expected to continue into the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

An upper low will drop south out of Canada into the Great Lakes
Region at the start of the long term period. Upper flow over AR will
become more NWRLY Sat night into Sun as this upper low moves into
the Great Lakes Region. Weak upper waves will move SE over AR during
this period...with the first wave dropping SE Sat night into Sun.
This will keep any ongoing convection that develops late Sat
afternoon persisting into the evening/overnight hrs as activity
drops further SE. The daytime hrs on Sun should remain basically dry
behind the departing upper disturbance...but chances for convection
return Sun night into Mon as a new upper disturbance and cold front
moves back into AR.

Chances for precip decrease by Tue as the front drops further south
through AR. There could be some lingering chances across SRN
sections into the middle of the week as the SFC front slows. The
upper trough to the NE will move east by late next week...with flow
aloft becoming less strong over the region. Flow aloft will turn
back to more SWRLY late in the forecast...but will remain generally
weak. As a result...some chances for precip do return...but will
likely be more of the summer-time pulse variety with weak upper
energy overhead at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR conds are expected to prevail through late evening today.
Scattered diurnal SHRA/TSRA is anticipated through the afternoon
across much of the state. Activity should diminish in coverage
after sunset with patchy FG developing where appreciable precip
falls. Winds today will be light, SW at around 5-10 kts. Late in
the period, a potential MCS may move towards AR from KS. Impacts
at KHRO and KBPK are possible near sunrise Fri with the mention of
gusty erratic winds and TSRA. This complex should decrease in
coverage and intensity as it moves towards Cntrl AR but bears
watching.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  86  70  83 /  20  70  40  80
Camden AR         72  91  73  92 /   0  20  10  20
Harrison AR       68  82  67  80 /  40  80  50  80
Hot Springs AR    71  89  70  89 /  10  40  20  40
Little Rock   AR  74  89  72  88 /  10  50  20  50
Monticello AR     74  93  75  92 /   0  20  10  30
Mount Ida AR      71  89  71  88 /  20  40  20  50
Mountain Home AR  69  83  67  80 /  40  90  50  80
Newport AR        73  87  71  84 /  20  70  40  80
Pine Bluff AR     73  91  72  90 /  10  30  20  40
Russellville AR   72  87  71  86 /  10  60  30  70
Searcy AR         72  88  71  86 /  10  60  30  70
Stuttgart AR      74  89  73  88 /  10  40  20  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...70