350
FXUS64 KLZK 231715
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1215 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Another calm and quiet night ongoing across the Natural State early
this Sat morning. Dry conditions were noted...and temps were in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Expect the dry conditions to continue...and
temps to drop down to the low 60s to low 70s for lows this Sat
morning.

Initially...AR will remain on the ERN periphery of the upper ridge
to the west...resulting in generally NRLY flow aloft over the
region. Weak SFC high pressure to the north will keep winds mainly
NRLY through at least tonight for AR. This will result in dry
conditions continuing...with dewpts remaining in the upper 50s and
60s into the afternoon hrs. Even with the NRLY flow in place...the
dry air will allow for temps to warm to around or just above normal
once again this Sat afternoon.

By late this afternoon into tonight...flow aloft will transition to
a more NWRLY direction as a weak upper wave drops SE across the
region. As this happens...there could be some isolated SHRA/TSRA
across NWRN section late this afternoon and evening. However...most
areas should remain dry. A new cold front will also drop south into
the state with this transition in upper flow...with the front moving
south across the state on Sun into Sun night. Drier air will filter
into the state behind this front on Sun...with dewpts dropping into
the upper 40s to 50s for most areas by Mon afternoon. Mainly dry
conditions will be seen into early Mon...but the front will
slow/stall over SWRN sections of the state...or just SW of AR by
midday Mon.

A new upper wave will then drop SE over this front Mon
afternoon...with chances for convection increasing starting Mon
afternoon. These increased POPs will continue into much of Tue as a
weak shortwave passes SE over AR. Looks like the front will push
further south of the state by this time...but much of the precip
looks to develop along/north of this front across a good portion of
the state into Tue afternoon. NRN/NERN sections may remain generally
dry as you get further NE of the upper wave and SFC front on Tue.
Temps on Tue may be the coolest in a while for highs for most
areas...with highs in the 70s for most areas. Wouldn`t be too
surprised to see some highs struggle to exceed 70 where rainfall
persists most of the day.

By late Tue into Wed...chances for precip look to decrease as the
upper shortwave moves east of the region...and the front remains
south of AR. The drier/cooler air will settle in...but will warm a
bit compared to Tue. This will be result of less precip and
potentially more sunshine. Highs will rebound back into the 70s and
80s for highs...with generally low dewpts in the 50s...resulting in
relatively comfortable conditions for much of AR mid-week. Lows will
also be relatively cool...with lows in the 50s and 60s much of next
week.

Precip chances start to return to the forecast once again late next
week as a new upper wave drops SE in the NW flow aloft. These rain
chances and the NW flow aloft will tend to also keep temps from
warming too much.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A cold
front is expected to enter the state by tonight with a few light
showers possible over far northern Arkansas. At this time,
confidence is too low to place -SHRA at KHRO and KBPK. Light N/NE
winds will become N/NW by late tonight and persist through the
remainder of the TAF period.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     67  91  62  80 /   0   0   0  10
Camden AR         68  95  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       64  86  61  74 /   0   0  10  30
Hot Springs AR    71  94  68  87 /   0   0   0  10
Little Rock   AR  71  93  67  84 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     69  96  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      69  94  67  85 /   0   0   0  20
Mountain Home AR  64  87  60  76 /   0   0   0  20
Newport AR        69  90  62  80 /   0   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     68  94  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   71  96  67  83 /   0   0   0  20
Searcy AR         69  93  63  83 /   0   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      69  94  65  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...Kelly