798
FXUS64 KLZK 050552
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1152 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

An upper ridge will continue from the Gulf into the Plains to begin
the short term period with an upper low in the Pacific Northwest. A
zonal flow is expected over Arkansas through the period. The upper
ridge moves east Thursday as the upper low begins its trek along the
Canadian border.

The stationary front will remain in southern Arkansas tonight and
Wednesday morning. With moisture abundant across the area fog will
remain a factor overnight into the morning. Also, there will be a
slight chance of light rain showers tonight which will continue into
Thursday. With the front moving north mid day Wednesday, this should
clear out the low clouds and fog, and allow temperatures to increase.
Warmer temperatures are expected on Thursday with low 70s to low
80s for high temperatures across the state.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 229 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Temperatures may be tricky to pin down at the start of the period as
a nearly stationary cold front will be in place close to the AR/LA
border. On Friday, this feature will lift north as a warm front
across the state. Depending on the timeline of the warm frontal
passage, highs could range by nearly 30 degrees F from N-S. At this
time, forecast highs range from near 50 F along the AR/MO border to
80 F along the AR/LA border.

The warm front will continue to lift north of the state for Saturday
which should lead to highs in the 70s/80s F, which is significantly
above normal. Daily record highs for Feb 8th may be in jeopardy. A
few showers may develop during this timeframe as well, but coverage
and QPF should remain very limited.

Major changes are expected by Sunday across the state as a H500
shortwave moves east toward the Great Lakes and a sfc low progresses
from the KS/OK border toward the Ohio Valley. A trailing cold front
will move across the state by Saturday night with sfc ridging and
colder air settling in over the state in its wake. This will be a
fairly dramatic shift in temperatures compared to Saturday`s
unseasonable warm readings, with highs expected to be nearly 30
degrees F colder.

Conditions will be slightly more unsettled by early next week. The
mid-level flow aloft will become more swrly. A few disturbances in
the mean flow will move across the state and a the cold front will
become nearly stationary just south of the state. Below normal
temperatures will remain in place through the end of the
period.

Occasional precip chances will be noted, especially during the very
end of the period, Tue-Wed. A sfc low looks to develop across SE
Texas and move E/NE just south of the state. Precip will develop
around this feature and as it shifts east of the area some winter
weather may be possible across northern parts of the state. Both
GFS/ECMWF ensemble probs for at least an inch of snow remain limited
and largely confined to northern parts of the state. Will continue
to monitor trends and see how things evolve in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

A stationary front was positioned over far Srn AR as of 06z. N of
this boundary, +FG is expected to develop along a, W to E,
corridor over Srn/Cntrl/ and N-Cntrl AR encompassing all TAF
sites except possibly KBPK. LIFR/IFR conds are expected through
midday with FG eroding from S to N by late morning as a warm
front begins to lifts Nwrd. IFR CIGs are anticipated to linger
over Nrn/Cntrl sites through the period with improvements to MVFR
over Srn sites once the warm front passes and CIGs break and/or
lift. Winds will be light out of the E at 10 kts or less on Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     50  42  59  56 /   0  10  30  10
Camden AR         76  56  76  64 /  10  10  20   0
Harrison AR       47  41  64  60 /   0  20  30  10
Hot Springs AR    60  49  69  64 /  20  10  30   0
Little Rock   AR  59  46  67  63 /  10  10  30  10
Monticello AR     71  54  76  65 /  10  10  30   0
Mount Ida AR      63  50  71  64 /  20  10  20   0
Mountain Home AR  47  41  60  57 /   0  20  30  10
Newport AR        50  43  58  57 /   0  20  40  10
Pine Bluff AR     63  49  72  64 /  10  10  30  10
Russellville AR   61  47  66  61 /   0  20  20  10
Searcy AR         53  45  62  59 /   0  20  30  10
Stuttgart AR      59  47  68  64 /  10  10  40  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...70