428
FXUS64 KLZK 171025 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
525 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Most of the convection has pushed south and east early this Sat
morning...with some lingering marginally SVR TSRA noted across SRN
sections of the CWA. This activity will continue to drop slowly SE
the rest of this early Sat morning as the upper disturbance moves
east.

Should see a break in precip activity from around sunrise into the
early afternoon hrs. However...a new wave of convection will
develop W/SW of AR during the early afternoon hrs...eventually
lifting NE into WRN/SWRN AR by mid/late afternoon. This activity
will then lift NE across the area into the evening hrs before
exiting the area by the early morning hrs on Sun. This activity will
also have the potential to become SVR...with ample instability and
deep layer SHR. As a result...damaging winds and large hail will
again be the primary threats.

The active pattern will continue through the rest of the weekend
into early next week...with chances for convection continuing as a
warm front lifts north away from AR by Sun night. A break in the
activity will be seen late Sun night into midday/early afternoon
Mon...but a new cold front and upper shortwave to the NW will be
approaching late Mon. The potential for SVR Wx will be a bit more
limited during this period given a bit of ridging over the state.
However...forecast instability looks to remain plentiful given
warm/humid conditions. As a result...still think some strong to
briefly SVR convection will be possible both days.

The potential for more organized SVR potential will come late Mon
through Tue as a potent upper shortwave moves east across the
region...and a cold front surges SE through the state. Strong/SVR
TSRA will be possible with this system on Tue/Tue night as a result.
However...exact details regarding timing and overall specific
threats are uncertain this far out in time.

Behind this front...the forecast will become cooler and drier by mid
week. A less active pattern will then be seen as a result by the end
of the forecast for the middle/latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Some localized FG will lead to a few terminals seeing reduced
flight conditions for a few hours this morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will be seen through much of the period. Winds will
remain light/variable through the period. Some RA/TS activity will
move into the area after 18/00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     86  66  82  70 /   0  60  60  60
Camden AR         90  68  88  70 /  20  50  30  20
Harrison AR       83  61  79  67 /  10  60  70  70
Hot Springs AR    90  67  86  69 /  10  40  40  30
Little Rock   AR  90  69  87  71 /  10  60  50  40
Monticello AR     90  71  89  73 /  10  40  40  20
Mount Ida AR      90  67  85  69 /  20  40  40  30
Mountain Home AR  84  62  79  67 /   0  60  70  70
Newport AR        87  68  84  71 /   0  60  60  60
Pine Bluff AR     90  70  89  71 /  10  50  40  30
Russellville AR   89  66  85  69 /  10  60  60  50
Searcy AR         88  67  84  70 /   0  60  60  50
Stuttgart AR      90  71  87  73 /  10  50  50  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...67